Study on factors influencing and the critical value of the drilling cuttings weight: an index for outburst risk prediction

Abstract To judge the coal and gas outburst (hereinafter referred to as ‘outburst’) risk of working faces in coal roadways according to the index of drilling cuttings weight (DCW), the influence factors and critical value of DCW were investigated. The study was conducted by deducing the theoretical calculation formula for DCW and using a set of self-designed, self-machined measuring apparatus for DCW which can be used to simulate the working face in a real coal roadway. The theoretical calculation formula for DCW indicates that the DCW increases with the increase of in situ stress and gas pressure while it also increases with decreasing coal strength. Among the three factors, with the change of gas pressure, the change in DCW is the smallest. On this basis, so that the critical value of DCW for judging the outburst risk of coal masses can better indicate the outburst risk at a working face, the tests for measuring DCWs under different outburst risk levels were carried out by using a set of apparatus for outburst risk which can be used to simulate the working face in a coal roadway by taking gas pressure as a controllable factor. The test results show that, with increasing outburst risk in a simulated coal seam, the DCW linearly increases at first and then suddenly rises. It also implies that the gas pressure exerts significant influences on DCW only when the outburst risk of a coal mass increases to a certain degree. There is a linear relationship between DCW and initial expansion energy of released gas (IEERG). On this basis, according to the critical values of IEERG indicating weak outburst and strong outburst risks, the critical values of DCW for outburst risk are judged. By using discriminant analysis, it can be obtained that the critical value of DCW when a weak outburst occurred is 4.88 kg/m. The critical value can be used to distinguish data samples with measured DCWs having weak outburst risk, whose accuracy reaches 89.47%. The critical value of DCW when a strong outburst occurred is 7.55 kg/m, which can accurately (100%) distinguish between data samples from weak and strong outbursts based on the measured DCWs. The final judgement accuracy of outburst risk is 93.75%.

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