Risk Assessment and Decision-making Techniques for Multipurpose Reservoir Operation

Multipurpose reservoir operation has related to many incommensurability targets such as flood control,electric power generation,water supply,shipping,ecology.The corresponding value function and risk evaluation index system are established;On the basis of the idea that the large loss has the large weight,index weight method is proposed by integrating the subjective and objective factors.With the basic definition of risk and the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution,it establishes a risk evaluation model of multipurpose reservoir dispatching plan.The model is applied to Danjiangkou reservoir operation.The result shows that it can not only give risk of each dispatching plan,but also rapidly obtain the optimum scheme from plan set.