Punctuality Model For Railways

Involvement of train delays in traffic models is nearly a noninvestigated theme, in spite of the fact that the theme has a central place in the travelers' choice of transport system and traveling route. It has been decided to include the concept of punctuality in the Copenhagen-Ringsted traffic model. Among other things, irregularity depends on traffic load, which has therefore been included in the model. The punctuality is described by use of a simulation tool that also is being used for capacity studies. In such a tool, it is possible to describe the punctuality as a function of the traffic load of a given combination of the infrastructure and timetable. Therefore, in the Copenhagen-Ringsted traffic model, the simulation program UX-SIMU has been used. That a simulation tool is suitable to describe the irregularity is caused by complex conditions, which has its effect when a train is delayed. Depending on how great the delay is, where it occurs, and the load of the system, this delay spreads and disturbs other trains in the system. To explain how the trains essentially are delayed is difficult to describe, because systematic errors occur in the infrastructure and on the rolling stock. Alternatively, these errors occur more or less unexpectedly. Furthermore, the railway traffic could be influenced by outgoing disturbances. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze statistical data, which describes these conditions from observed occurrences. For this purpose, the punctuality database that registers almost all train delays on the Danish railway network, has been used.