Simple Empirical Models for Estimating the Increase in the Central Pressure of Tropical Cyclones after Landfall along the Coastline of the United States

Modeling the increase in the central pressure of tropical cyclones following landfall plays a critical role in the estimation of the hurricane wind hazard at locations removed from the coastline. This paper describes the development of simple empirical models for estimating the rate at which tropical cyclones decay after making landfall. For storms making landfall along the Gulf of Mexico Coast and the coast of the Florida Peninsula, it is shown that the rate of storm filling is proportional to the central pressure difference and translation speed at the time of landfall and is inversely proportional to the radius to maximum winds. Along the Atlantic Coast the effect of radius to maximum winds does not play as significant a role in the rate of storm decay as compared with that seen in Florida and along the Gulf Coast. The models developed here can readily be included in any hurricane simulation model designed for estimating wind speeds in the United States.

[1]  Mark D. Powell,et al.  The Landfall of Hurricane Hugo in the Carolinas: Surface Wind Distribution , 1991 .

[2]  Francis P. Ho,et al.  Meteorological criteria for standard project hurricane and probable maximum hurricane windfields, gulf and east coasts of the United States , 1979 .

[3]  P. Hebert.  Atlantic Hurricane Season of 1975 , 1976 .

[4]  W. Malkin.  Filling and intensity changes in hurricanes over land , 1959 .

[5]  R. E. Hart,et al.  A Climatology of the Extratropical Transition of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones. , 2001 .

[6]  E. Simiu,et al.  Hurricane Wind Speeds in the United States , 1980 .

[7]  Timothy A. Reinhold,et al.  Hurricane Andrew's Landfall in South Florida. Part I: Standardizing Measurements for Documentation of Surface Wind Fields , 1996 .

[8]  M. DeMaria,et al.  A Simple Empirical Model for Predicting the Decay of Tropical Cyclone Winds after Landfall , 1995 .

[9]  Shahid Hamid,et al.  State of Florida hurricane loss projection model: Atmospheric science component , 2005 .

[10]  B. I. Miller.  A STUDY OF THE FILLING OF HURRICANE DONNA (1960) OVER LAND , 1964 .

[11]  Lawrence A. Twisdale,et al.  Wind-Field and Filling Models for Hurricane Wind-Speed Predictions , 1995 .

[12]  P. Vickery,et al.  HURRICANE WIND FIELD MODEL FOR USE IN HURRICANE SIMULATIONS , 2000 .

[13]  G. Holland.  An Analytic Model of the Wind and Pressure Profiles in Hurricanes , 1980 .

[14]  I. Ginis,et al.  A Numerical Investigation of Land Surface Water on Landfalling Hurricanes , 2002 .

[15]  Mark DeMaria,et al.  On the Decay of Tropical Cyclone Winds after Landfall in the New England Area , 2001 .