An Evaluation of Mesoscale-Model-Based Model Output Statistics (MOS) during the 2002 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games

Abstract The skill of a mesoscale-model-based model output statistics (MOS) system that provided hourly forecasts for 18 sites over northern Utah during the 2002 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games is evaluated. The MOS system was developed using three winters (November–April 1998/99, 1999/2000, and 2000/01) of forecasts by the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) and observations from Olympic venues and transportation corridors. MOS temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and wind direction forecasts were considerably more accurate than those produced by the 12- and 4-km MM5 grids. A primary contributor to MM5 temperature and relative humidity errors was a systematic overprediction of surface temperature (i.e., a warm/dry bias) during persistent and nocturnal cold-pool events when corresponding errors in MM5 dewpoint temperature forecasts were not observed. MOS largely corrected for this temperature bias. MOS wind speed forecast...

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