A framework for measuring international business cycles

Abstract The classical measurement of business cycles, growth cycles, and growth rate cycles lies at the foundation for the understanding of macroeconomic dynamics in open market economies. This essay presents a framework for analyzing and forecasting cyclical behavior in economic activity, employment, and inflation. The framework is extended to foreign trade and important domestic sectors of an economy such as manufacturing, services, and construction. This multidimensional framework, which allows for a more in-depth analysis, serves as a model to be developed on a comparable basis across countries. Business cycle and growth rate cycle reference chronologies, which have been determined for the major economies, are presented in this context.

[1]  The Three Ps: Simple Tools for Monitoring Economic Cycles , 1999 .

[2]  Charles I. Plosser,et al.  Real business cycles and the test of the Adelmans , 1994 .

[3]  Dating postwar business cycles: methods and their application to Western Germany (1950-67) , 1970 .

[4]  P. Gregg,et al.  King Charles I , 1981 .

[5]  Khosrow Fatemi.  International public policy and regionalism at the turn of the century , 2001 .

[6]  Philip A. Klein,et al.  Geoffrey H. Moore and dynamic statistical methods , 1993 .

[7]  Philip A. Klein,et al.  Monitoring Growth Cycles in Market-Oriented Countries: Developing and Using International Economic Indicators , 1985 .

[8]  Leading indicators for the 1990s , 1989 .

[9]  Philip A. Klein,et al.  Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles , 1994 .

[10]  Kajal Lahiri,et al.  Interest Rate Spreads as Predictors of German Inflation and Business Cycles , 1999 .

[11]  P. Klein.  Analysing Modern Business Cycles: Essays Honoring Geoffrey H.Moore: Essays Honoring Geoffrey H.Moore , 1990 .

[12]  W. Mitchell.  Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting. , 1928 .

[13]  Gerhard Bry,et al.  Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs" , 1971 .

[14]  Leading indicators of inflation , 1986 .

[15]  M. Watson,et al.  Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy , 1992 .

[16]  Allan P. Layton,et al.  Leading Indicators for the Service Sector , 1989 .

[17]  Is the Business Cycle Obsolete , 1972 .

[18]  Edward M. Gramlich,et al.  The Business Cycle Today. , 1972 .