CONSIDERATION OF INTERMODAL COMPETITION IN THE FORECASTING OF NATIONAL INTERCITY TRAVEL

A STUDY WAS RECENTLY COMPLETED THAT HAD AS ITS OBJECTIVES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PROTOTYPE METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING FUTURE NATIONAL PASSENGER TRAVEL DEMANDS AND THE EXERCISING OF THIS METHODOLOGY. THIS PAPER DESCRIBES SELECTED INNOVATIVE ASPECTS OF AN OVERALL NATIONAL INTERCITY TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING FRAMEWORK DEVELOPED IN THIS STUDY. A METHOD IS DESCRIBED FOR TRANSFORMING AIR TRIP TABLES, WHICH ARE ON AN AIRPORT-TO-AIRPORT BASIS AS DEVELOPED BY THE CIVIL AERONAUTICS BOARD, INTO TRIP TABLES REFLECTING THE TRUE ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS OF THE AIR TRIPS. ALSO DESCRIBED IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODAL-SPLIT MODEL THAT IS BASED ON A LOGISTIC FUNCTION AND THAT ESTIMATES THE AUTOMOBILE AND AIR MARKET SHARES AS A FUNCTION OF THE TRAVEL IMPEDANCES OF EACH OF THE MODES. /AUTHOR/