A machine learning model for predicting risk of hospital readmission within 30 days of discharge: validated with LACE index and patient at risk of hospital readmission (PARR) model

The objective of this study was to design and develop a predictive model for 30-day risk of hospital readmission using machine learning techniques. The proposed predictive model was then validated with the two most commonly used risk of readmission models: LACE index and patient at risk of hospital readmission (PARR). The study cohort consisted of 180,118 admissions with 22,565 (12.5%) of actual readmissions within 30 days of hospital discharge, from 01 Jan 2015 to 31 Dec 2016 from two Auckland-region hospitals. We developed a machine learning model to predict 30-day readmissions using the model types XGBoost, Random Forests, and Adaboost with decision stumps as a base learner with different feature combinations and preprocessing procedures. The proposed model achieved the F1-score (0.386 ± 0.006), sensitivity (0.598 ± 0.013), positive predictive value (PPV) (0.285 ± 0.004), and negative predictive value (NPV) (0.932 ± 0.002). When compared with LACE and PARR(NZ) models, the proposed model achieved better F1-score by 12.7% compared with LACE and 23.2% compared with PARR(NZ). The mean sensitivity of the proposed model was 6.0% higher than LACE and 41% higher than PARR(NZ). The mean PPV was 15.9% and 14.6% higher than LACE and PARR(NZ) respectively. We presented an all-cause predictive model for 30-day risk of hospital readmission with an area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) of 0.75 for the entire dataset. Graphical abstract