Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment

A review is presented of the book “Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment,” edited by Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, and Daniel Kahneman.

[1]  J. Baron,et al.  Confusion of Relative and Absolute Risk in Valuation , 1997 .

[2]  R. Thaler,et al.  Does the Stock Market Overreact , 1985 .

[3]  S. Rachman,et al.  The overprediction of fear , 1988 .

[4]  R. Petty,et al.  lhe Effects of Overt Head Movements on Persuasion: Compatibility and incompatibility of Responses , 1980 .

[5]  Gary Klein,et al.  Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions , 2017 .

[6]  Terri R. Kurtzberg,et al.  Positive Illusions and Forecasting Errors in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions. , 1999, Organizational behavior and human decision processes.

[7]  L. Ross,et al.  Psychological Barriers to Dispute Resolution , 1995 .

[8]  D. M. Grether,et al.  Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness Heuristic , 1980 .

[9]  Vicki G. Morwitz,et al.  Does Measuring Intent Change Behavior , 1993 .

[10]  Eldar Shafir,et al.  Reason-based choice , 1993, Cognition.

[11]  E. R. Cohen,et al.  Least-squares adjusted values of the atomic constants as of December, 1950 , 1951 .

[12]  J. Knight.  Physics meets biology: Bridging the culture gap , 2002, Nature.

[13]  F. Agnoli.  Development of judgmental heuristics and logical reasoning: Training counteracts the representativeness heuristic , 1991 .

[14]  Gregory Ashby,et al.  A neuropsychological theory of multiple systems in category learning. , 1998, Psychological review.

[15]  H. Kelley.  Causal schemata and the attribution process , 1972 .

[16]  Y. Trope,et al.  Confirmatory and diagnosing strategies in social information gathering. , 1982 .

[17]  R. Hare,et al.  Psychopathy, Fear Arousal and Anticipated Pain , 1965, Psychological reports.

[18]  Nicholas Frank Pidgeon,et al.  Editorial: Risk perception versus risk analysis , 1998 .

[19]  Erika D Peterson,et al.  Temporal Adjustments in the Evaluation of Events: The "Rosy View" , 1997, Journal of experimental social psychology.

[20]  K. Teigen.  Subjective sampling distributions and the additivity of estimates , 1974 .

[21]  Carol A. Manning,et al.  The availability explanation of excessive plausibility assessments , 1981 .

[22]  K. R. Hammond,et al.  ANALYZING THE COMPONENTS OF CLINICAL INFERENCE. , 1964, Psychological review.

[23]  G. Gigerenzer,et al.  Probabilistic mental models: a Brunswikian theory of confidence. , 1991, Psychological review.

[24]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Mere-Possession Effects without Possession in Consumer Choice , 1997 .

[25]  L. Cosmides.  The logic of social exchange: Has natural selection shaped how humans reason? Studies with the Wason selection task , 1989, Cognition.

[26]  Terence Lim,et al.  Rationality and Analysts' Forecast Bias , 2001 .

[27]  G. Diamond,et al.  Physician perception of exercise electrocardiography as a prognostic test after acute myocardial infarction. , 1988, The American journal of cardiology.

[28]  F. Pipkin,et al.  Precision Measurements and Fundamental Constants , 1983, Science.

[29]  Paul Rozin,et al.  The Contagion Concept in Adult Thinking in the United States: Transmission of Germs and of Interpersonal Influence , 1994 .

[30]  S. Levinson.  Interactional biases in human thinking , 1995 .

[31]  Henry L. Tosi.  A Theory of Goal Setting and Task Performance , 1991 .

[32]  T. K. Srull,et al.  Category accessibility: Some theoretical and empirical issues concerning the processing of social stimulus information , 1981 .

[33]  G. Bodenhausen,et al.  Sadness and Susceptibility to Judgmental Bias: The Case of Anchoring , 2000, Psychological science.

[34]  Thomas Mussweiler,et al.  Hypothesis-consistent testing and semantic priming in the anchoring paradigm: A selective accessibility model. , 1999 .

[35]  Ilia D. Dichev,et al.  Earnings Management to Avoid Earnings Decreases and Losses , 1997 .

[36]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  Probability, Statistics, And Decision Making In The Atmospheric Sciences , 1985 .

[37]  H. Genant,et al.  Assessment of radiologic progression in rheumatoid arthritis. A randomized, controlled trial. , 1986, Arthritis and rheumatism.

[38]  Reid Hastie,et al.  Revision of beliefs when a hypothesis is eliminated from consideration. , 1985 .

[39]  Peter Ayton,et al.  How to Be IncoherentandSeductive: Bookmakers' Odds and Support Theory☆☆☆ , 1997 .

[40]  S. Epstein.  Integration of the cognitive and the psychodynamic unconscious. , 1994, The American psychologist.

[41]  Edward M. Saunders.  Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather , 1993 .

[42]  Douglas L. Hintzman,et al.  "Schema Abstraction" in a Multiple-Trace Memory Model , 1986 .

[43]  L. Cohen,et al.  The controversy about irrationality , 1983, Behavioral and Brain Sciences.

[44]  H. Arkes,et al.  Hindsight bias among physicians weighing the likelihood of diagnoses. , 1981, The Journal of applied psychology.

[45]  Paul Rozin,et al.  Magical Contagion Beliefs and Fear of AIDS1 , 1992 .

[46]  D. Hilton.  THE SOCIAL CONTEXT OF REASONING : CONVERSATIONAL INFERENCE AND RATIONAL JUDGMENT , 1995 .

[47]  F. Heider.  The psychology of interpersonal relations , 1958 .

[48]  Jennifer Francis,et al.  ANALYSTS DECISIONS AS PRODUCTS OF A MULTITASK ENVIRONMENT , 1993 .

[49]  P. Juslin,et al.  Format dependence in subjective probability calibration , 1999 .

[50]  R. Hogarth,et al.  Judging probable cause. , 1986 .

[51]  Timothy O'Riordan,et al.  Valuing Environmental Goods: An Assessment of the Contingent Valuation Method , 1987 .

[52]  K. Craik,et al.  Is There a Citation Bias in the Judgment and Decision Literature , 1993 .

[53]  D. Trafimow,et al.  Does the Temporal Stability of Behavioral Intentions Moderate Intention-Behavior and Past Behavior-Future Behavior Relations? , 1999 .

[54]  Eugene Borgida,et al.  The Conjunction Fallacy , 1984 .

[55]  Marshall Lev Dermer,et al.  Reversed Facial Images and the Mere-Exposure Hypothesis , 1977 .

[56]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Eliciting knowledge for analytical representation , 1989, IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern..

[57]  Thomas C. Schelling,et al.  Self-Command in Practice, in Policy, and in a Theory of Rational Choice , 1984 .

[58]  A. Tversky.  Elimination by aspects: A theory of choice. , 1972 .

[59]  Thomas Kida,et al.  Heuristics and biases: Expertise and task realism in auditing. , 1991 .

[60]  Stephen J. Read,et al.  Analogical reasoning in social judgment: The importance of causal theories. , 1984 .

[61]  M. Henle.  On the relation between logic and thinking. , 1962, Psychological review.

[62]  H. A. Cross,et al.  Imprinting or exposure learning in rats given early auditory stimulation , 1967 .

[63]  P. Suedfeld.  Reactions to Societal Trauma: Distress and/or Eustress , 1997 .

[64]  F. Crosby,et al.  Words Worth of Wisdom: Toward an Understanding of Affirmative Action. , 1996 .

[65]  N. Schwarz.  Stimmung als Information , 1987 .

[66]  Shawn P. Curley,et al.  Conditional distribution analyses of probabilistic forecasts , 1985 .

[67]  D. Krantz,et al.  The effects of statistical training on thinking about everyday problems , 1986, Cognitive Psychology.

[68]  P. Slovic,et al.  Preference Reversals: A Broader Perspective , 1983 .

[69]  Z. Kunda,et al.  Social Cognition: Making Sense of People , 1999 .

[70]  Ido Erev,et al.  On the Importance of Random Error in the Study of Probability Judgment. Part I: New Theoretical Developments , 1997 .

[71]  Stephen J. Hoch,et al.  An Anchoring and Adjustment Model of Purchase Quantity Decisions , 1998 .

[72]  Jon A. Krosnick,et al.  Conversational conventions, order of information acquisition, and the effect of base rates and individuating information on social judgments. , 1990 .

[73]  Paul T. Costa,et al.  The Stability of Personality: Observations and Evaluations , 1994 .

[74]  G. Gigerenzer.  On Narrow Norms and Vague Heuristics: A Reply to Kahneman and Tversky (1996) , 1996 .

[75]  P. Meehl,et al.  Comparative efficiency of informal (subjective, impressionistic) and formal (mechanical, algorithmic) prediction procedures: The clinical–statistical controversy. , 1996 .

[76]  J. V. Wood,et al.  Social comparison in adjustment to breast cancer. , 1985, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[77]  L. Cohen,et al.  On the psychology of prediction: Whose is the fallacy? , 1979, Cognition.

[78]  Shelley E. Taylor,et al.  Social cognition, 2nd ed. , 1991 .

[79]  D. Barr,et al.  The Egocentric Basis of Language Use , 1998 .

[80]  S. Link,et al.  Bias in Quantifying Judgments , 1989 .

[81]  A. K. Ganzel,et al.  Adolescent Decision Making , 1999 .

[82]  R. Zajonc,et al.  Affective and Cognitive Factors in Preferences , 1982 .

[83]  G. Mandler,et al.  Tests of Dual Process Theory: Word Priming and Recognition , 1990 .

[84]  Paul Thagard,et al.  Variability and confirmation , 1982 .

[85]  F. H. Barron,et al.  Equal Weights, Flat Maxima, and Trivial Decisions. , 1980 .

[86]  David L. Ronis,et al.  Probability judgment accuracy: China, Japan, and the United States , 1989 .

[87]  G. Loewenstein,et al.  A Bias in the Prediction of Tastes , 1995 .

[88]  John D. Mayer,et al.  Mood-congruent judgment is a general effect. , 1992 .

[89]  Elke U. Weber,et al.  The Interpretation of 'Likely' Depends on the Context, But 70% is 70% - Right? The Influence of Associative Processes on Perceived Certainty , 1999 .

[90]  Max H. Bazerman,et al.  Improving negotiation effectiveness under final offer arbitration: The role of selection and training. , 1982 .

[91]  John C. Easterwood,et al.  New Evidence on Serial Correlation in Analyst Forecast Errors , 1999 .

[92]  A. Greenwald,et al.  Measuring individual differences in implicit cognition: the implicit association test. , 1998, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[93]  R. C. Silver,et al.  The myths of coping with loss. , 1989, Journal of consulting and clinical psychology.

[94]  P. Pollard,et al.  On the conflict between logic and belief in syllogistic reasoning , 1983, Memory & cognition.

[95]  C. E. M. Hansel,et al.  The nature of decisions in gambling: Equivalence of single and compound subjective probabilities , 1957 .

[96]  Dent,et al.  Cognitive Load and the Equality Heuristic: A Two-Stage Model of Resource Overconsumption in Small Groups. , 2000, Organizational behavior and human decision processes.

[97]  David N. Dreman,et al.  Analyst Forecasting Errors and Their Implications for Security Analysis , 1995 .

[98]  K. Vohs,et al.  Case Western Reserve University , 1990 .

[99]  Stephen P. Stich,et al.  Justification and the Psychology of Human Reasoning , 1980, Philosophy of Science.

[100]  H. Heckhausen,et al.  Deliberative and implemental mind-sets: Cognitive tuning toward congruous thoughts and information , 1990 .

[101]  Colin Camerer.  Do Markets Correct Biases in Probability Judgment? Evidence from Market Experiments , 1990 .

[102]  Steven J. Sherman,et al.  Social explanation: The role of timing, set, and recall on subjective likelihood estimates. , 1983 .

[103]  Janet A. Sniezek,et al.  Influences on the appropriateness of confidence in judgment: Practice, effort, information, and decision-making , 1991 .

[104]  G. Bower,et al.  Mood effects on person-perception judgments. , 1987, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[105]  Janet A. Sniezek,et al.  The effect of choosing on confidence in choice , 1990 .

[106]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts , 1992 .

[107]  Stephen J. Hoch,et al.  Counterfactual reasoning and accuracy in predicting personal events. , 1985 .

[108]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  What forecasts (seem to) mean , 1994 .

[109]  M. Bazerman,et al.  Divergent Expectations as a Cause of Disagreement in Bargaining: Evidence from a Comparison of Arbitration Schemes." , 1989 .

[110]  N. Anderson.  Foundations of information integration theory , 1981 .

[111]  R. Rorty.  Incorrigibility as the Mark of the Mental , 1970 .

[112]  A. Tversky,et al.  Weighing Risk and Uncertainty , 1995 .

[113]  Mark R. Lepper,et al.  Attitude prototypes as determinants of attitude-behavior consistency. , 1984, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[114]  Emily S. Reber,et al.  Directional Questions Direct Self-Conceptions , 1993 .

[115]  Linda Babcock,et al.  Damage Caps, Motivated Anchoring, and Bargaining Impasse , 2000, The Journal of Legal Studies.

[116]  C. R. Snyder.  Reality Negotiation: From Excuses to Hope and Beyond , 1989 .

[117]  N. Schwarz,et al.  Mood and Stereotyping: Affective States and the Use of General Knowledge Structures , 1996 .

[118]  Walter Schneider,et al.  Controlled and Automatic Human Information Processing: 1. Detection, Search, and Attention. , 1977 .

[119]  C. Lay,et al.  At last, my research article on procrastination. , 1986 .

[120]  J. Yates.  Conceptualizing, Explaining, and Improving Accuracy: Process Models of Probability Judgment , 1998 .

[121]  L. Ross,et al.  Judgment under uncertainty: Shortcomings in the attribution process: On the origins and maintenance of erroneous social assessments , 1982 .

[122]  W. Edwards.  The theory of decision making. , 1954, Psychological bulletin.

[123]  Laurie Larwood,et al.  Managerial myopia: Self-serving biases in organizational planning. , 1977 .

[124]  R. Sugden,et al.  Testing for Regret and Disappointment in Choice under Uncertainty , 1987 .

[125]  George Foster,et al.  Security analyst multi-year earnings forecasts and the capital market , 1985 .

[126]  S. Duval,et al.  Focus of attention and causal attributions of actors and observers , 1975 .

[127]  P. Tetlock,et al.  Rage and reason: the psychology of the intuitive prosecutor , 1999 .

[128]  H. Arkes.  Costs and benefits of judgment errors: Implications for debiasing. , 1991 .

[129]  Reid Hastie,et al.  Tracing the footsteps of Sherlock Holmes: Cognitive representations of hypothesis testing , 1990, Memory & cognition.

[130]  Colin F. Camerer,et al.  General conditions for the success of bootstrapping models , 1981 .

[131]  D. Klahr,et al.  Heuristics for Scientific Experimentation: A Developmental Study , 1993, Cognitive Psychology.

[132]  R. Descartes,et al.  Descartes: Selected Philosophical Writings: Principles of Philosophy , 1988 .

[133]  E. R. Cohen,et al.  Our Knowledge of the Fundamental Constants of Physics and Chemistry in 1965 , 1965 .

[134]  C. Steele.  The Psychology of Self-Affirmation: Sustaining the Integrity of the Self , 1988 .

[135]  J. Klayman,et al.  Confirmation, Disconfirmation, and Informa-tion in Hypothesis Testing , 1987 .

[136]  L. Ross,et al.  Biased Assimilation and Attitude Polarization: The Effects of Prior Theories on Subsequently Considered Evidence , 1979 .

[137]  P. Juslin.  The Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter-Guided Selection of Almanac Items , 1994 .

[138]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Framing, probability distortions, and insurance decisions , 1993 .

[139]  Dean P. Foster,et al.  Graininess of judgment under uncertainty: An accuracy-informativeness trade-off , 1995 .

[140]  I Rock,et al.  Regression to egocentrically determined description of form under conditions of inattention. , 1989, Journal of experimental psychology. Human perception and performance.

[141]  A. Tversky,et al.  On the study of statistical intuitions , 1982, Cognition.

[142]  D. Gilbert,et al.  The Preoccupational Hazards of Social Life , 1992 .

[143]  Lloyd G. Humphreys,et al.  Incorporating General Intelligence into Epidemiology and the Social Sciences. , 1997 .

[144]  J. Yates,et al.  General knowledge overconfidence : Cross-national variations, response style, and reality , 1997 .

[145]  K. Fiedler,et al.  Mood and memory for tightly organized social information , 1986 .

[146]  Wendy Wood,et al.  Habit and intention in everyday life: The multiple processes by which past behavior predicts future behavior. , 1998 .

[147]  A. Tversky,et al.  Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness , 1972 .

[148]  Daniel Kahneman,et al.  Judgment under uncertainty: Variants of uncertainty , 1982 .

[149]  Norbert Schwarz,et al.  Priming and communication: Social determinants of information use in judgments of life satisfaction , 1988 .

[150]  P. Ellsworth,et al.  Beyond simple pessimism: effects of sadness and anger on social perception. , 1993, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[151]  N. Weinstein.  Accuracy of smokers' risk perceptions , 1998, Annals of behavioral medicine : a publication of the Society of Behavioral Medicine.

[152]  I. Ajzen.  Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base-rate information on prediction. , 1977 .

[153]  R. Dawes,et al.  Heuristics and Biases: Clinical versus Actuarial Judgment , 2002 .

[154]  R. Hastie,et al.  Person memory: Personality traits as organizing principles in memory for behaviors. , 1979 .

[155]  B. Weiner,et al.  Spontaneous" causal thinking. , 1985 .

[156]  A. Reber.  Implicit learning and tacit knowledge , 1993 .

[157]  David H. Krantz,et al.  Judging the strength of designated evidence , 1992 .

[158]  C. Plott,et al.  Economic Theory of Choice and the Preference Reversal Phenomenon , 1979 .

[159]  A. Leslie.  Pretense and representation: The origins of "theory of mind." , 1987 .

[160]  S. Duval,et al.  A theory of objective self awareness , 1972 .

[161]  Andrew Ortony,et al.  The Cognitive Structure of Emotions , 1988 .

[162]  E. Brunswik.  Organismic achievement and environmental probability. , 1943 .

[163]  D. Önkal,et al.  Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts of Stock Prices in a Developing Stock Market , 1994 .

[164]  Thomas K. Srull,et al.  Affect and Memory: the Impact of Affective Reactions in Advertising on the Representation of Product Information in Memory , 1983 .

[165]  Derek J. Koehler,et al.  A Strength Model of Probability Judgments for Tournaments , 1996 .

[166]  J. S. Shrauger,et al.  Accuracy of Self-Predictions Versus Judgments by Knowledgeable Others , 1996 .

[167]  E. E. Jones,et al.  The perception of variability within in-groups and out-groups: Implications for the law of small numbers. , 1980 .

[168]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature , 1977 .

[169]  Roy F. Baumeister,et al.  Paradoxical effects of supportive audiences on performance under pressure: The home field disadvantage in sports championships. , 1984 .

[170]  Laurie Larwood,et al.  Swine Flu: A Field Study of Self-Serving Biases , 1978 .

[171]  Neil D. Weinstein,et al.  Egocentrism as a Source of Unrealistic Optimism , 1982 .

[172]  Franca Agnoli,et al.  Suppressing natural heuristics by formal instruction: The case of the conjunction fallacy , 1989, Cognitive Psychology.

[173]  A. Tversky,et al.  The simulation heuristic , 1982 .

[174]  William F. Wright,et al.  Effects of situation familiarity and financial incentives on use of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic for probability assessment , 1989 .

[175]  J. Koehler.  The base rate fallacy reconsidered: Descriptive, normative, and methodological challenges , 1996, Behavioral and Brain Sciences.

[176]  L. Cosmides,et al.  Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty , 1996, Cognition.

[177]  I. Ritov,et al.  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes Anchoring in Simulated Competitive Market Negotiation , 2022 .

[178]  Michael Conway,et al.  Getting what you want by revising what you had. , 1984 .

[179]  G. Marlatt.  Craving for Alcohol, Loss of Control, and Relapse: A Cognitive-Behavioral Analysis , 1978 .

[180]  W. R. Garner.  Uncertainty and structure as psychological concepts , 1975 .

[181]  Herbert Harari,et al.  Name Stereotypes and Teachers' Expectations. , 1973 .

[182]  Colin Camerer,et al.  The Effects of Financial Incentives in Experiments: A Review and Capital-Labor-Production Framework , 1999 .

[183]  D. A. Kenny,et al.  Structural models for the mediation of salience effects on attribution , 1982 .

[184]  J P Ornato,et al.  Use of Clinical Judgment Analysis to Explain Regional Variations in Physicians' Accuracies in Diagnosing Pneumonia , 1991, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[185]  Fischhoff,et al.  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes the Real World: What Good Is It? Come with the Standardization and Experimentation 232 That We Prefer. Some Are so Comfortable with Studying , 2022 .

[186]  Elizabeth Weldon,et al.  Cognitive Loafing , 1988, Personality & social psychology bulletin.

[187]  Richard P. Larrick,et al.  Teaching the Use of Cost-Benefit Reasoning in Everyday Life , 1990 .

[188]  M. Rabin.  Psychology and Economics , 1997 .

[189]  Colin M. Macleod.  Half a century of research on the Stroop effect: an integrative review. , 1991, Psychological bulletin.

[190]  Jerry Suls,et al.  Social comparison processes: Theoretical and empirical perspectives , 1977 .

[191]  Paul Slovic,et al.  Newspaper Coverage of Causes of Death , 1979 .

[192]  Stephen M. Johnson,et al.  Insensitivity to the Value of Human Life: A Study of Psychophysical Numbing , 1997 .

[193]  S. S. Wilks.  Weighting systems for linear functions of correlated variables when there is no dependent variable , 1938 .

[194]  G. Gigerenzer.  Why the distinction between single-event probabilities and frequencies is important for psychology (and vice versa). , 1994 .

[195]  Christopher K. Hsee.  Elastic Justification: How Unjustifiable Factors Influence Judgments , 1996 .

[196]  Susan R. Fussell,et al.  The effects of intended audience on message production and comprehension: Reference in a common ground framework , 1989 .

[197]  W A Wagenaar,et al.  Does the expert know? The reliability of predictions and confidence ratings of experts , 1986 .

[198]  H. Simon,et al.  Rational choice and the structure of the environment. , 1956, Psychological review.

[199]  D. E. Over,et al.  Social roles and utilities in reasoning with deontic conditionals , 1991, Cognition.

[200]  Paul E. Meehl,et al.  When shall we use our heads instead of the formula , 1957 .

[201]  T. Au,et al.  Developing an intuitive understanding of conservation and contamination: invisible particles as a plausible mechanism , 1993 .

[202]  Timothy D. Wilson,et al.  Protecting our minds: The role of lay beliefs. , 1998 .

[203]  T. Gilovich,et al.  The illusion of transparency: biased assessments of others' ability to read one's emotional states. , 1998, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[204]  D. Kahneman,et al.  When More Pain Is Preferred to Less: Adding a Better End , 1993 .

[205]  A. Tversky,et al.  Evidential impact of base rates , 1981 .

[206]  David Faust,et al.  Eliminating the hindsight bias. , 1988 .

[207]  Daniel T. Gilbert,et al.  Blurry Words and Fuzzy Deeds The Attribution of Obscure Behavior , 1992 .

[208]  Gerd Gigerenzer,et al.  The "conjunction fallacy" revisited : How intelligent inferences look like reasoning errors , 1999 .

[209]  N. Cantor,et al.  Defensive pessimism: harnessing anxiety as motivation. , 1986, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[210]  James Franklin,et al.  The Language of Chance , 1997 .

[211]  I. Simonson,et al.  Choice Based on Reasons: The Case of Attraction and Compromise Effects , 1989 .

[212]  C. Fox.  Strength of Evidence, Judged Probability, and Choice Under Uncertainty , 1999, Cognitive Psychology.

[213]  Richard P. Larrick,et al.  Who uses the cost-benefit rules of choice? implications for the normative status of microeconomic theory , 1993 .

[214]  J. Snortum,et al.  Temporal estimation and heart rate as a function of repression-sensitization score and probability of shock. , 1971, Journal of consulting and clinical psychology.

[215]  Jack B. Soll.  Determinants of Overconfidence and Miscalibration: The Roles of Random Error and Ecological Structure☆ , 1996 .

[216]  L. Brooks,et al.  Nonanalytic Cognition: Memory, Perception, and Concept Learning , 1984 .

[217]  L. Ross,et al.  Naive realism in everyday life: Implications for social conflict and misunderstanding. , 1996 .

[218]  Derek J. Koehler,et al.  The enhancement effect in probability judgment , 1997 .

[219]  S. Epstein,et al.  Conflict Between Intuitive and Rational Processing: When People Behave Against Their Better Judgment , 1994 .

[220]  Victor L. Bernard,et al.  Tests of Analysts' Overreaction/Underreaction to Earnings Information as an Explanation for Anomalous Stock Price Behavior , 1992 .

[221]  Rami Zwick,et al.  Comparing the calibration and coherence of numerical and verbal probability judgments , 1993 .

[222]  Raymond S. Nickerson,et al.  How We Know—and Sometimes Misjudge—What Others Know: Imputing One's Own Knowledge to Others , 1999 .

[223]  F. Strack,et al.  Motor Actions in Retrieval of Valenced Information: A Motor Congruence Effect , 1997, Perceptual and motor skills.

[224]  Michael Suk-Young Chwe,et al.  CULTURE, CIRCLES, AND COMMERCIALS , 1998 .

[225]  J. S. Wiggins,et al.  Clinical and statistical prediction: Where are we and where do we go from here? , 1981 .

[226]  W. Edwards,et al.  Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research , 1986 .

[227]  Elliot Aronson,et al.  The Theory of Cognitive Dissonance: A Current Perspective1 , 1969 .

[228]  I. Ajzen,et al.  Intention, perceived control, and weight loss: an application of the theory of planned behavior. , 1985, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[229]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  The Adaptive Decision-Maker : Effort and Accuracy in Choice , 2022 .

[230]  Scott E. Stickel.  Reputation and Performance Among Security Analysts , 1992 .

[231]  G. Brier,et al.  External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score , 1982 .

[232]  Z. Kunda,et al.  Motivated inference: Self-serving generation and evaluation of causal theories. , 1987 .

[233]  H ROAZEN,et al.  Clinical versus acturial prediction in the differential diagnosis of jaundice. A stdy of the relative accuracy of predictions made by physicians and by a statistically derived formula in differentiating parenchymal and obstructive jaundice. , 1960, The American journal of the medical sciences.

[234]  L. Ross,et al.  Subjective Construal, Social Inference, and Human Misunderstanding , 1991 .

[235]  M. Brewer.  A dual process model of impression formation. , 1988 .

[236]  S. Stigler.  Do Robust Estimators Work with Real Data , 1977 .

[237]  T. Trabasso,et al.  Storage and verification stages in processing concepts. , 1971 .

[238]  P. Meehl.  Appraising and Amending Theories: The Strategy of Lakatosian Defense and Two Principles that Warrant It , 1990 .

[239]  O. Spreen.  The Relationship between Learning Disability, Neurological Impairment, and Delinquency: Results of a Follow‐up Study , 1981, The Journal of nervous and mental disease.

[240]  R. Abrams,et al.  Psychological sources of ambiguity avoidance , 1986 .

[241]  Richard Gonzalez,et al.  Nonlinear Decision Weights in Choice Under Uncertainty , 1999 .

[242]  J. Wolfowitz,et al.  Probability Theory for Statistical Methods. , 1950 .

[243]  R. Bornstein.  Exposure and affect: Overview and meta-analysis of research, 1968–1987. , 1989 .

[244]  Ronald A. Howard,et al.  Knowledge Maps , 1989 .

[245]  Lisa G. Aspinwall,et al.  Optimism, coping, psychological distress, and high-risk sexual behavior among men at risk for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). , 1992 .

[246]  F. Schick.  Rationality: A Third Dimension , 1987, Economics and Philosophy.

[247]  Philip E. Tetlock,et al.  Accountability amplifies the status quo effect when change creates victims , 1994 .

[248]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. , 1975 .

[249]  W. Lycan.  “Is” and “ought” in cognitive science , 1981, Behavioral and Brain Sciences.

[250]  P. Rozin,et al.  Sympathetic Magical Beliefs and Kosher Dietary Practice: The Interaction of Rules and Feelings , 1992 .

[251]  H. Sackeim,et al.  Self-deception: A concept in search of a phenomenon. , 1979 .

[252]  M. Granger Morgan,et al.  Technical Uncertainty in Quantitative Policy Analysis — A Sulfur Air Pollution Example , 1984 .

[253]  Douglas L. Medin,et al.  Context theory of classification learning. , 1978 .

[254]  D. Erickson,et al.  Judging situations: On the effortful process of taking dispositional information into account. , 1995 .

[255]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Judged frequency of lethal events , 1978 .

[256]  Ralph L. Keeney,et al.  Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decisionmaking , 1992 .

[257]  Romin W. Tafarodi,et al.  Self-liking and self-competence as dimensions of global self-esteem: initial validation of a measure. , 1995, Journal of personality assessment.

[258]  J. Shepperd,et al.  Bracing for the Worst: Severity, Testing, and Feedback Timing as Moderators of the Optimistic Bias , 1998 .

[259]  F. Strack,et al.  Ease of retrieval as information: Another look at the availability heuristic. , 1991 .

[260]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  Impacts of Feedback and Experience on the Quality of Subjective Probability Forecasts. Comparison of Results from the First and Second Years of the Zierikzee Experiment , 1984 .

[261]  Colin Camerer,et al.  Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach , 1999 .

[262]  F. Strack,et al.  Proprioceptive Determinants of Emotional and Nonemotional Feelings , 1993 .

[263]  Paul Slovic,et al.  Comparison of Bayesian and Regression Approaches to the Study of Information Processing in Judgment. , 1971 .

[264]  T. K. Srull,et al.  The Role of Category Accessibility in the Interpretation of Information About Persons: Some Determinants and Implications , 1979 .

[265]  A. Tversky,et al.  Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: the conjunction fallacy in probability judgment , 1983 .

[266]  D. Wegner,et al.  The transparency of denial: Briefing in the debriefing paradigm. , 1985 .

[267]  Chester L. Olson,et al.  Some apparent violations of the representativeness heuristic in human judgment. , 1976 .

[268]  W. Wagenaar,et al.  The perception of randomness , 1991 .

[269]  R. Elliott.  Heart Rate in Anticipation of Shocks Which Have Different Probabilities of Occurrences , 1975, Psychological reports.

[270]  Timothy D. Wilson,et al.  THE ROLE OF AFFECTIVE EXPECTATIONS IN SUBJECTIVE EXPERIENCE AND DECISION-MAKING , 1994 .

[271]  Tom DeMarco,et al.  Controlling software projects : management, measurement & estimation , 1982 .

[272]  A. Damasio,et al.  Deciding Advantageously Before Knowing the Advantageous Strategy , 1997, Science.

[273]  P. Rozin,et al.  Specific hungers and poison avoidance as adaptive specializations of learning. , 1971, Psychological review.

[274]  S. S. Stevens,et al.  Psychophysics: Introduction to Its Perceptual, Neural and Social Prospects , 1975 .

[275]  Ernest R. May,et al.  Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision-Makers , 1986 .

[276]  Boaz Keysar,et al.  States of Affairs and States of Mind: The Effect of Knowledge of Beliefs , 1995 .

[277]  F. Barron,et al.  An ego-strength scale which predicts response to psychotherapy. , 1953, Journal of consulting psychology.

[278]  Neil D. Weinstein,et al.  Reducing unrealistic optimism about illness susceptibility. , 1983 .

[279]  N. Roese,et al.  What Might Have Been: The Social Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking , 1995 .

[280]  Brian J. Gibbs,et al.  Intuitive Hedonics: Consumer Beliefs About the Dynamics of Liking , 1995 .

[281]  N. Angier.  Woman: An Intimate Geography , 1999 .

[282]  William R. Ferrell,et al.  A model of calibration for subjective probabilities , 1980 .

[283]  Ahti Salo,et al.  Forecasting with scenarios , 1993 .

[284]  Joachim I. Krueger,et al.  Enhancement Bias in Descriptions of Self and Others , 1998 .

[285]  E. J. Doleys,et al.  ACCURACY OF STUDENT PREDICTION OF COLLEGE GRADES , 1963 .

[286]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Risk assessment: Evaluating error in subjective estimates , 1981 .

[287]  D. Faust.  The limits of scientific reasoning , 1984 .

[288]  Shelley E. Taylor,et al.  Positive illusions and coping with adversity. , 1996, Journal of personality.

[289]  P. Sheeran,et al.  Implementation Intentions and the Theory of Planned Behavior , 1997, Personality & social psychology bulletin.

[290]  David V. Budescu,et al.  On the Importance of Random Error in the Study of Probability Judgment. Part II: Applying the Stochastic Judgment Model to Detect Systematic Trends , 1997 .

[291]  G. Ainslie.  Picoeconomics: The Strategic Interaction of Successive Motivational States within the Person , 1992 .

[292]  Z. Kunda,et al.  The case for motivated reasoning. , 1990, Psychological bulletin.

[293]  R. Zajonc.  Attitudinal effects of mere exposure. , 1968 .

[294]  Ward Edwards,et al.  Bayesian statistical inference for psychological research. , 1963 .

[295]  Shelley E. Taylor,et al.  Illusion and well-being: a social psychological perspective on mental health. , 1988, Psychological bulletin.

[296]  R. Dowen.  Analyst Reaction to Negative Earnings for Large Well-Known Firms , 1996 .

[297]  Michel Tuan Pham.  Representativeness, Relevance, and the Use of Feelings in Decision Making , 1998 .

[298]  Itzhak Gilboa,et al.  Additive representations of non-additive measures and the choquet integral , 1994, Ann. Oper. Res..

[299]  J. Coleman.  Foundations of Social Theory , 1990 .

[300]  Rachel M. Hayes.  The impact of trading commission incentives on analysts' stock coverage decisions and earnings forecasts , 1998 .

[301]  J. Baron.  Thinking and deciding, 2nd ed. , 1994 .

[302]  Shelley E. Taylor,et al.  Harnessing the imagination. Mental simulation, self-regulation, and coping. , 1998, The American psychologist.

[303]  Julie H. Goldberg,et al.  Sober Second Thought: The Effects of Accountability, Anger, and Authoritarianism on Attributions of Responsibility , 1998 .

[304]  Russell M. Barefield,et al.  The accuracy of analysts' forecasts of earnings per share , 1975 .

[305]  F. T. Masur,et al.  23 – Adherence to Health Care Regimens , 1981 .

[306]  C. Varey,et al.  Towards a Consensus on Overconfidence , 1996 .

[307]  Ward Edwards,et al.  Conservatism in Complex Probabilistic Inference , 1966 .

[308]  Yoav Ganzach,et al.  Preference Reversals in Equal‐probability Gambles: A Case for Anchoring and Adjustment , 1996 .

[309]  Y. Klar,et al.  Are Most People Happier than their Peers, or Are They Just Happy? , 1999 .

[310]  A. Tversky,et al.  The Causes of Preference Reversal , 1990 .

[311]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Propensities and counterfactuals: The loser that almost won , 1990 .

[312]  Ed Diener,et al.  Assessing subjective well-being: Progress and opportunities , 1994 .

[313]  A. Damasio,et al.  Individuals with sociopathic behavior caused by frontal damage fail to respond autonomically to social stimuli , 1990, Behavioural Brain Research.

[314]  Douglas A. Kysar,et al.  The Joint Failure of Economic Theory and Legal Regulation , 2001 .

[315]  Janet A. Sniezek,et al.  Hoping, Performing, learning, and Predicting: Changes in the Accuracy of Self-Evaluations of Peformance , 1996 .

[316]  R. Frank,et al.  The Winner-Take-All Society , 1995 .

[317]  D. Cummins.  Evidence for the Innateness of Deontic Reasoning , 1996 .

[318]  C. P. Horne,et al.  Review of particle properties , 1969 .

[319]  Pamela J. Hinds,et al.  The curse of expertise: The effects of expertise and debiasing methods on prediction of novice performance. , 1999 .

[320]  R. Dawes,et al.  Equating Inverse Probabilities in Implicit Personality Judgments , 1993 .

[321]  T. K. Srull,et al.  Category accessibility and social perception: Some implications for the study of person memory and interpersonal judgments , 1980 .

[322]  R. Nisbett,et al.  Culture and systems of thought: holistic versus analytic cognition. , 2001, Psychological review.

[323]  A. Tversky,et al.  Prospect theory: analysis of decision under risk , 1979 .

[324]  C. R. Snyder,et al.  Social Cognitive Psychology , 1997 .

[325]  N. Chater,et al.  RATIONAL EXPLANATION OF THE SELECTION TASK , 1996 .

[326]  D. Cervone,et al.  Anchoring, Efficacy and Action: The Influence of Judgmental Heuristics on Self-Efficacy Judgments a , 1986 .

[327]  J. Bargh.  Attention and Automaticity in the Processing of Self-Relevant Information , 1982 .

[328]  Michael J. Doane,et al.  Consumer Rationality and the Status Quo , 1991 .

[329]  W. S. Rholes,et al.  Category accessibility and impression formation , 1977 .

[330]  E. Poulton.  Behavioral decision theory : a new approach , 1994 .

[331]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Focusing Techniques: A Shortcut to Improving Probability Judgments? , 1984 .

[332]  Daniel N. Osherson,et al.  An advantage model of choice , 1989 .

[333]  Christopher K. Hsee.  Less is Better: When Low-Value Options are Valued More Highly than High-Value Options , 1998 .

[334]  S. S. Stevens.  On the psychophysical law. , 1957, Psychological review.

[335]  Charles M. Judd,et al.  Measures and models of perceived group variability. , 1990 .

[336]  Richard G. Sloan.  Do Stock Prices Fully Reflect Information in Accruals and Cash Flows About Future Earnings , 1998 .

[337]  D. Papineau.  Evolution and the human mind: The evolution of knowledge , 2000 .

[338]  H. Wellman.  The Child's Theory of Mind , 1990 .

[339]  I. Erev,et al.  Simultaneous Over- and Underconfidence: The Role of Error in Judgment Processes. , 1994 .

[340]  C. Nemeroff,et al.  Magical contagion and AIDS risk perception in a college population. , 1994, AIDS education and prevention : official publication of the International Society for AIDS Education.

[341]  W. Davison.  The Third-Person Effect in Communication , 1983 .

[342]  H. Markovits,et al.  Reasoning with contrary-to-fact propositions. , 1989, Journal of experimental child psychology.

[343]  Jeffrey A. Frankel,et al.  Forward Discount Bias: Is it an Exchange Risk Premium? , 1988 .

[344]  D. Barr,et al.  Taking Perspective in Conversation: The Role of Mutual Knowledge in Comprehension , 2000, Psychological science.

[345]  A. Tversky,et al.  Prospect Theory : An Analysis of Decision under Risk Author ( s ) : , 2007 .

[346]  Maya Bar-Hillel,et al.  On the subjective probability of compound events , 1973 .

[347]  N. Roese.  The Functional Basis of Counterfactual Thinking , 1994 .

[348]  Feather Nt.  Valence of outcome and expectation of success in relation to task difficulty and perceived locus of control. , 1967 .

[349]  Alan G. Sanfey,et al.  Does Evidence Presentation Format Affect Judgment? An Experimental Evaluation of Displays of Data for Judgments , 1998 .

[350]  Peter Wright,et al.  Consumer Choice Strategies: Simplifying Vs. Optimizing: , 1975 .

[351]  R. Baumeister,et al.  The need to belong: desire for interpersonal attachments as a fundamental human motivation. , 1995, Psychological bulletin.

[352]  P. Tetlock,et al.  Social and cognitive strategies for coping with accountability: conformity, complexity, and bolstering. , 1989, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[353]  R. Buehler,et al.  Frequency, Probability, and Prediction: Easy Solutions to Cognitive Illusions? , 1999, Cognitive Psychology.

[354]  Y. Trope,et al.  Temporal construal and time-dependent changes in preference. , 2000, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[355]  J. A. Sniezek,et al.  Passion, Preference, and Predictability in Judgmental Forecasting , 1992 .

[356]  Steven J. Sherman,et al.  The effects of explaining hypothetical future events: From possibility to probability to actuality and beyond , 1981 .

[357]  Stephen J. Hoch,et al.  An Anchoring and Adjustment Model of Spousal Predictions , 1986 .

[358]  A. Tversky,et al.  On the elicitation of preferences for alternative therapies. , 1982, The New England journal of medicine.

[359]  Eleanor Rosch,et al.  Principles of Categorization , 1978 .

[360]  Derek J. Koehler,et al.  Subjective Probability of Disjunctive Hypotheses: Local-Weight Models for Decomposition of Evidential Support , 1999, Cognitive Psychology.

[361]  C. Sunstein,et al.  Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation , 1999 .

[362]  Timothy S. Paek,et al.  Definite Reference and Mutual Knowledge: Process Models of Common Ground in Comprehension , 1998 .

[363]  G. Loewenstein,et al.  Diversification bias: Explaining the discrepancy in variety seeking between combined and separated choices , 1995 .

[364]  B. Cohen,et al.  A catalog of risks. , 1979, Health physics.

[365]  R. Hogarth,et al.  Ambiguity and Uncertainty in Probabilistic Inference. , 1985 .

[366]  Ian Begg,et al.  Dissociation of processes in belief: Source recollection, statement familiarity, and the illusion of truth , 1992 .

[367]  J. Baron.  Judgment Misguided: Intuition and Error in Public Decision Making , 1998 .

[368]  L. Tiedens,et al.  Judgment under emotional certainty and uncertainty: the effects of specific emotions on information processing. , 2001, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[369]  R. Sternberg,et al.  Intelligence: Knowns and unknowns. , 1996 .

[370]  Dale T. Miller,et al.  Self-serving biases in the attribution of causality: Fact or fiction? , 1975 .

[371]  Irwin P. Levin,et al.  Information framing effects in social and personal decisions , 1988 .

[372]  Steven L. Neuberg,et al.  A Continuum of Impression Formation, from Category-Based to Individuating Processes: Influences of Information and Motivation on Attention and Interpretation , 1990 .

[373]  R Rosenthal,et al.  Meta‐analysis: a review. , 1991, Psychosomatic medicine.

[374]  R. Jervis.  The Future of World Politics: Will It Resemble the Past? , 1991 .

[375]  A. Parducci.  Category judgment: a range-frequency model. , 1965, Psychological review.

[376]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  The limits of anchoring. , 1994 .

[377]  A. Tversky,et al.  Can irrationality be intelligently discussed? , 1983, Behavioral and Brain Sciences.

[378]  A. Tversky,et al.  On the Reconciliation of Probability Assessments , 1979 .

[379]  Daniel Kahneman,et al.  Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability , 1973 .

[380]  Ariel Rubinstein,et al.  False Probabilistic Arguments v. Faulty Intuition , 1979, Israel Law Review.

[381]  Lisa G. Aspinwall,et al.  Optimism and Self-Mastery Predict More Rapid Disengagement from Unsolvable Tasks in the Presence of Alternatives , 1999 .

[382]  R. Nisbett,et al.  Behavior as seen by the actor and as seen by the observer , 1973 .

[383]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  When Do Base Rates Affect Predictions , 1981 .

[384]  R. Thaler.  Quasi Rational Economics , 1991 .

[385]  Douglas A. Kysar,et al.  Taking Behavioralism Seriously: The Problem of Market Manipulation , 1999 .

[386]  J. Piaget.  Judgement and Reasoning in the Child , 1962 .

[387]  T. Connolly.  Decision Making and Leadership , 1994 .

[388]  Norbert Schwarz,et al.  Judgment in a Social Context: Biases, Shortcomings, and the Logic of Conversation , 1994 .

[389]  R. Jervis.  Perception and misperception in international politics , 1976 .

[390]  R. Hogarth,et al.  BEHAVIORAL DECISION THEORY: PROCESSES OF JUDGMENT AND CHOICE , 1981 .

[391]  P. Meehl.  Causes and effects of my disturbing little book. , 1986, Journal of personality assessment.

[392]  A. Tversky,et al.  Rational choice and the framing of decisions , 1990 .

[393]  N. Schwarz,et al.  When debiasing backfires: accessible content and accessibility experiences in debiasing hindsight. , 2002, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[394]  Timothy D. Wilson,et al.  Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes. , 1977 .

[395]  William Samuelson,et al.  Status quo bias in decision making , 1988 .

[396]  Richard A. Griggs,et al.  Another look at Linda , 1993 .

[397]  S. Chaiken,et al.  The psychology of attitudes. , 1993 .

[398]  Carol S. Dweck,et al.  Motivational processes affecting learning. , 1986 .

[399]  Daniel C. Dennett,et al.  Brainstorms: Philosophical Essays on Mind and Psychology , 1981 .

[400]  J. Frank Yates,et al.  Effects of procedural and outcome accountability on judgment quality , 1996 .

[401]  P. Tetlock.  Cognitive Biases and Organizational Correctives: Do Both Disease and Cure Depend on the Politics of the Beholder? , 2000 .

[402]  William B. Helmreich.  Against All Odds: Holocaust Survivors and the Successful Lives They Made in America , 1993 .

[403]  A. Tversky,et al.  Contingent weighting in judgment and choice , 1988 .

[404]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Judgment under uncertainty: For those condemned to study the past: Heuristics and biases in hindsight , 1982 .

[405]  J. Downs,et al.  Why some are perceived as more confident and more insecure, more reckless and more cautious, more trusting and more suspicious, than others: Enriched and impoverished options in social judgment , 1999, Psychonomic bulletin & review.

[406]  Roy M. Poses,et al.  Availability, Wishful Thinking, and Physicians' Diagnostic Judgments for Patients with Suspected Bacteremia , 1991, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[407]  R. C. Silver,et al.  Coping with irrevocable loss. , 1987 .

[408]  Albert C. Gunther,et al.  Overrating the X‐Rating: The Third‐Person Perception and Support for Censorship of Pornography , 1995 .

[409]  Timothy D. Wilson,et al.  Introspecting about Reasons can Reduce Post-Choice Satisfaction , 1993 .

[410]  D. Kahneman.  Reference points, anchors, norms, and mixed feelings. , 1992 .

[411]  Gerd Gigerenzer,et al.  How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning Without Instruction: Frequency Formats , 1995 .

[412]  P. Lovie.  A note on an unexpected anchoring bias in intuitive statistical inference , 1985, Cognition.

[413]  J. Piaget.  The Language and Thought of the Child , 1927 .

[414]  N. Epley,et al.  Feeling "holier than thou": are self-serving assessments produced by errors in self- or social prediction? , 2000, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[415]  Nathan Novemsky,et al.  How are base-rates used, when they are used: a comparison of additive and Bayesian models of base-rate use , 1999 .

[416]  H. N. C. Stevenson.  Status Evaluation in the Hindu Caste System , 1954 .

[417]  Shelley E. Taylor,et al.  Asymmetrical effects of positive and negative events: the mobilization-minimization hypothesis. , 1991, Psychological bulletin.

[418]  Paul Slovic,et al.  The relative influence of probabilities and payoffs upon perceived risk of a gamble , 1967 .

[419]  Richard L. Wiener,et al.  Evaluation, diagnosis, and prediction in parole decision making. , 1982 .

[420]  Daniel T. Gilbert,et al.  Journal of Personality and Social Psychology of Thoughts Unspoken Social Inference and the Self-regulation of Behavior , 2022 .

[421]  George Cvetkovich,et al.  Cognitive accommodation, language, and social responsibility. , 1978 .

[422]  B. Keysar,et al.  When do speakers take into account common ground? , 1996, Cognition.

[423]  L. A. McArthur.  The how and what of why: Some determinants and consequences of causal attribution. , 1972 .

[424]  F. W. Irwin,et al.  Stated expectations as functions of probability and desirability of outcomes. , 1953, Journal of personality.

[425]  Duane T. Wegener,et al.  Positive mood can increase or decrease message scrutiny: the hedonic contingency view of mood and message processing. , 1995, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[426]  S. Fulero,et al.  From individual to group impressions: Availability heuristics in stereotype formation , 1978 .

[427]  Vera Hoorens,et al.  Self‐Favoring Biases, Self‐Presentation, and the Self‐Other Asymmetry in Social Comparison , 1995 .

[428]  Maya Bar-Hillel,et al.  The Base Rate Fallacy Controversy , 1983 .

[429]  L. Brenner,et al.  Similarity between Hypotheses and Evidence , 1999, Cognitive Psychology.

[430]  N. Weinstein.  Unrealistic optimism about future life events , 1980 .

[431]  D. Olson,et al.  Developing theories of mind , 1988 .

[432]  P. Gollwitzer.  Implementation intentions: Strong effects of simple plans. , 1999 .

[433]  P. Rozin.  Towards a Psychology of Food and Eating: From Motivation to Module to Model to Marker, Morality, Meaning, and Metaphor , 1996 .

[434]  E. Tory Higgins,et al.  Context, categorization, and recall: The “change-of-standard” effect , 1983, Cognitive Psychology.

[435]  E. Aronson,et al.  Performance expectancy as a determinant of actual performance. , 1962, Journal of abnormal and social psychology.

[436]  M. Ross,et al.  Egocentric Biases in Availability and Attribution , 1979 .

[437]  H. Simon,et al.  Perception in chess , 1973 .

[438]  Anna S. Meigs.  Food, Sex and Pollution: A New Guinea Religion , 1984 .

[439]  David H. Krantz,et al.  From Indices to Mappings: The Representational Approach to Measurement , 1991 .

[440]  Glenn Shafer,et al.  A Mathematical Theory of Evidence , 2020, A Mathematical Theory of Evidence.

[441]  Tom Pyszczynski,et al.  Role of disconfirmed expectancies in the instigation of attributional processing. , 1981 .

[442]  Paul Slovic,et al.  The Springs of Action: Affective and Analytical Information Processing in Choice , 2000 .

[443]  Jacob Cohen.  Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences , 1969, The SAGE Encyclopedia of Research Design.

[444]  L. Festinger,et al.  ON RESISTANCE TO PERSUASIVE COMMUNICATIONS. , 1964, Journal of abnormal psychology.

[445]  L. Ross,et al.  Overconfident prediction of future actions and outcomes by self and others. , 1990, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[446]  W. Grove,et al.  Clinical versus mechanical prediction: a meta-analysis. , 2000, Psychological assessment.

[447]  Christopher K. Hsee,et al.  The Evaluability Hypothesis: An Explanation for Preference Reversals between Joint and Separate Evaluations of Alternatives , 1996 .

[448]  Neil D. Weinstein,et al.  Testing four competing theories of health-protective behavior. , 1993 .

[449]  James Shanteau,et al.  Reducing the influence of irrelevant information on experienced decision makers , 1984 .

[450]  R. Wyer,et al.  Mood as Input: People Have to Interpret the Motivational Implications of Their Moods Moods and Processing , 2022 .

[451]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Need to Know: Analytical and Psychological Criteria , 2000 .

[452]  W. Edwards,et al.  Conservatism in a simple probability inference task. , 1966, Journal of experimental psychology.

[453]  N. M. Morris,et al.  On Looking into the Black Box: Prospects and Limits in the Search for Mental Models , 1986 .

[454]  J. Fodor.  The Mind Doesn't Work That Way : The Scope and Limits of Computational Psychology , 2000 .

[455]  C. Mckenzie.  (Non)Complementary updating of belief in two hypotheses , 1999, Memory & cognition.

[456]  C. Peterson,et al.  SENSITIVITY OF SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY REVISION. , 1965, Journal of experimental psychology.

[457]  L. Cohen.  Can human irrationality be experimentally demonstrated? , 1981, Behavioral and Brain Sciences.

[458]  Winston R. Sieck,et al.  Exposition Effects on Decision Making: Choice and Confidence in Choice , 1997 .

[459]  H. H. Clark,et al.  References in Conversation Between Experts and Novices , 1987 .

[460]  M. Robin DiMatteo,et al.  Achieving Patient Compliance , 1982 .

[461]  Jonathan Evans,et al.  Rationality and reasoning , 1996 .

[462]  M. Bond,et al.  College Students' Spontaneous Self-Concept , 1983 .

[463]  R. Herrnstein.  Method and theory in the study of avoidance. , 1969, Psychological review.

[464]  K. R. Hammond.  Probabilistic functioning and the clinical method. , 1955, Psychological review.

[465]  Jonathan Evans,et al.  Human Reasoning: The Psychology Of Deduction , 1993 .

[466]  David E. Bell,et al.  Disappointment in Decision Making Under Uncertainty , 1985, Oper. Res..

[467]  P. Gärdenfors,et al.  Decision, Probability, and Utility , 1988 .

[468]  O. Mowrer.  Learning theory and the symbolic processes. , 1962 .

[469]  R. Herrnstein.  Rational Choice Theory Necessary but Not Sufficient , 1990 .

[470]  Daniel Kahneman.  New challenges to the rationality assumption , 1994 .

[471]  S. Lichtenstein,et al.  Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?*1 , 1977 .

[472]  T. R. Stewart,et al.  The Importance of the Task in Analyzing Expert Judgment , 1997 .

[473]  Daniel W. McAllister,et al.  The Contingency Model for the Selection of Decision Strategies: An Empirical Test. , 1978 .

[474]  D. Gilbert,et al.  On cognitive busyness: When person perceivers meet persons perceived. , 1988 .

[475]  Richard A. Block,et al.  Overconfidence in estimation: Testing the anchoring-and-adjustment hypothesis , 1991 .

[476]  J. Hunter,et al.  Validity and Utility of Alternative Predictors of Job Performance , 1984 .

[477]  E. Elton,et al.  Professional Expectations: Accurary and Diagonosis of Errors , 1984, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

[478]  Lyle Brenner,et al.  Overconfidence in Probability and Frequency Judgments: A Critical Examination , 1996 .

[479]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Subjective Confidence in Forecasts. , 1982 .

[480]  Allen Newell,et al.  Human Problem Solving. , 1973 .

[481]  James George Frazer,et al.  The Golden Bough: A Study of Magic and Religion , 1890 .

[482]  D. Ariely.  Seeing Sets: Representation by Statistical Properties , 2001, Psychological science.

[483]  J. Förster,et al.  The effects of approach and avoidance motor actions on the elements of creative insight. , 2000, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[484]  Moshe Shaked,et al.  An Elementary Approach To Thinking Under Uncertainty , 1985 .

[485]  N. Anderson.  Likableness ratings of 555 personality-trait words. , 1968, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[486]  N. Weinstein.  Unrealistic optimism about susceptibility to health problems: Conclusions from a community-wide sample , 1987, Journal of Behavioral Medicine.

[487]  H. Raiffa,et al.  Judgment under uncertainty: A progress report on the training of probability assessors , 1982 .

[488]  Edward E. Smith,et al.  On the adequacy of prototype theory as a theory of concepts , 1981, Cognition.

[489]  Itamar Simonson,et al.  The effect of accountability on susceptibility to decision errors , 1992 .

[490]  L. Cohen,et al.  Are People Programmed to Commit Fallacies? Further Thoughts about the Interpretation of Experimental Data on Probability Judgment , 1982 .

[491]  Carolyn Y. Woo,et al.  Entrepreneurs' perceived chances for success , 1988 .

[492]  J. A. Tanford.  The Law and Psychology of Jury Instructions , 1990 .

[493]  B. Keysar.  The Illusory Transparency of Intention: Does June Understand What Mark Means Because He Means It? , 2000 .

[494]  M. Bazerman,et al.  Cognition and Rationality in Negotiation , 1991 .

[495]  M. D. Storms,et al.  Videotape and the attribution process: reversing actors' and observers' points of view. , 1973, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[496]  J. Fodor,et al.  Connectionism and cognitive architecture: A critical analysis , 1988, Cognition.

[497]  M. Zuckerman.  Verbal and nonverbal communication of deception , 1981 .

[498]  D. Eddy.  Judgment under uncertainty: Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: Problems and opportunities , 1982 .

[499]  S. Rachman,et al.  Stimulus estimation and the overprediction of fear. , 1994, The British journal of clinical psychology.

[500]  Terence R. Mitchell,et al.  A theory of temporal adjustments of the evaluation of events: Rosy Prospection & Rosy Retrospection , 1994 .

[501]  James Ramirez,et al.  Good probabilistic forecasters: The ‘consumer's’ perspective , 1996 .

[502]  Anton Kühberger,et al.  The Framing of Decisions: A New Look at Old Problems , 1995 .

[503]  J. Campbell,et al.  Effects of self-esteem, hypothetical explanations, and verbalization of expectancies on future performance. , 1985 .

[504]  T. Gilovich,et al.  How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life , 1991 .

[505]  Nigel Harvey,et al.  Confidence in judgment , 1997, Trends in Cognitive Sciences.

[506]  Ian Dawson,et al.  Psychophysical Numbing: When Lives Are Valued Less as the Lives at Risk Increase , 1999 .

[507]  Teresa M. Amabile,et al.  Social Roles, Social Control and Biases in Social Perception , 1977 .

[508]  J. Friedrich,et al.  On Seeing Oneself as Less Self-Serving than Others: The Ultimate Self-Serving Bias? , 1996 .

[509]  Edward Stein,et al.  Without good reason : the rationality debate in philosophy and cognitive science , 1996 .

[510]  C. I. Hovland,et al.  Social Judgment: Assimilation and Contrast Effects in Communication and Attitude Change , 1981 .

[511]  Jerome R. Busemeyer,et al.  Linking together different measures of preference: A dynamic model of matching derived from decision field theory , 1992 .

[512]  P. Tetlock.  Accountability: A social check on the fundamental attribution error. , 1985 .

[513]  A. Gopnik,et al.  Why the Child's Theory of Mind Really Is a Theory , 1992 .

[514]  George A. Quattrone.  On the congruity between internal states and action. , 1985 .

[515]  G. Bower.  Mood and memory. , 1981, The American psychologist.

[516]  Russell H. Fazio,et al.  Priming and Frequency Estimation , 1984 .

[517]  F. Schick.  Making Choices: A Recasting of Decision Theory , 1997 .

[518]  F. Strack,et al.  Mood and Persuasion , 1990 .

[519]  Jeffrey D. Green,et al.  How would it feel if...? Mood as input to a role fulfillment evaluation process. , 1997 .

[520]  V. Smith.  Economics in the Laboratory , 1994 .

[521]  R. Cialdini,et al.  Imagining Can Heighten or Lower the Perceived Likelihood of Contracting a Disease , 1985 .

[522]  Jerome R. Ravetz,et al.  Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy , 1990 .

[523]  Berndt Brehmer,et al.  Does having to justify one's judgments change the nature of the judgment process? , 1983 .

[524]  F. Strack,et al.  The use of category and exemplar knowledge in the solution of anchoring tasks. , 2000, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[525]  Mark Snyder,et al.  Behavioral confirmation in social interaction: From social perception to social reality. , 1978 .

[526]  L. Macchi.  Pragmatic Aspects of the Base-rate Fallacy , 1995 .

[527]  Kevin J. Boyle,et al.  Measuring Natural Resource Damages with Contingent Valuation: Tests of Validity and Reliability , 1993 .

[528]  M. Appley,et al.  Adaptation-level theory : a symposium , 1971 .

[529]  W. W. Snyder,et al.  HORSE RACING: TESTING THE EFFICIENT MARKETS MODEL , 1978 .

[530]  S. Byram,et al.  Cognitive and motivational factors influencing time prediction. , 1997 .

[531]  D A Redelmeier,et al.  Probability judgement in medicine: discounting unspecified possibilities. , 1995, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[532]  Philip B. Gough,et al.  The verification of sentences: The effects of delay of evidence and sentence length , 1966 .

[533]  Stephen J. Hoch,et al.  Outcome feedback: hindsight and information , 1989 .

[534]  M. Slater.  Theory and method in health audience segmentation. , 1996, Journal of health communication.

[535]  Ilana Ritov,et al.  Determinants of stated willingness to pay for public goods: A study in the headline method , 1994, Journal of risk and uncertainty.

[536]  Jonathan Evans,et al.  Frequency versus probability formats in statistical word problems , 2000, Cognition.

[537]  Thomas Mussweiler,et al.  Comparing Is Believing: A Selective Accessibility Model of Judgmental Anchoring , 1999 .

[538]  P. Suppes.  The Measurement of Belief , 1974 .

[539]  R. Ratcliff,et al.  Unheralded Pronouns and Management by Common Ground , 1994 .

[540]  P. Schoemaker.  MULTIPLE SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT: ITS CONCEPTUAL AND BEHAVIORAL FOUNDATION , 1993 .

[541]  G. Löffler.  Biases in analyst forecasts: cognitive, strategic or second-best? , 1998 .

[542]  Amos Tversky,et al.  On the evaluation of probability judgments : calibration, resolution, and monotonicity , 1993 .

[543]  A. Tversky,et al.  The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence , 1992, Cognitive Psychology.

[544]  James F. Wilson.  Bureaucracy: What Government Agencies Do and Why They Do It , 1990 .

[545]  Shelley E. Taylor,et al.  Effects of mindset on positive illusions. , 1995, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[546]  L. Hendrickx,et al.  Relative importance of scenario information and frequency information in the judgment of risk , 1989 .

[547]  Timothy D. Wilson,et al.  The halo effect: Evidence for unconscious alteration of judgments. , 1977 .

[548]  M. Resnik.  Choices: An Introduction to Decision Theory , 1990 .

[549]  L. ESSEN,et al.  Velocity of Light and of Radio Waves , 1971, Nature.

[550]  H. Markus.  Self-schemata and processing information about the self. , 1977 .

[551]  B. Keysar.  On the functional equivalence of literal and metaphorical interpretations in discourse. , 1989 .

[552]  J. Baron,et al.  Omission and commission in judgment and choice , 1991 .

[553]  C. Carver,et al.  Optimism, coping, and health: assessment and implications of generalized outcome expectancies. , 2009, Health psychology : official journal of the Division of Health Psychology, American Psychological Association.

[554]  Willem A. Wagenaar,et al.  Calibration of probability assessments by professional blackjack dealers, statistical experts, and lay people , 1985 .

[555]  K. Stanovich,et al.  Cognitive Ability and Variation in Selection Task Performance , 1998 .

[556]  Melvin M. Mark,et al.  Color as an environmental processing cue: External affective cues can directly affect processing str , 1997 .

[557]  C. Gettys,et al.  Plausibility assessments in hypothesis generation , 1986 .

[558]  Virginia M. Richards,et al.  Distributional theories of impression formation , 1992 .

[559]  D. Goldstein,et al.  Satisficing inference and the perks of ignorance , 1996 .

[560]  C. Neil Macrae,et al.  Stereotypes as energy-saving devices: A peek inside the cognitive toolbox. , 1994 .

[561]  Gregory V. Jones.  Stacks not fuzzy sets: An ordinal basis for prototype theory of concepts , 1982, Cognition.

[562]  R. T. Birge,et al.  The Calculation of Errors by the Method of Least Squares , 1932 .

[563]  A. Greenwald.  The totalitarian ego: Fabrication and revision of personal history. , 1980 .

[564]  S. Carey.  Conceptual Change in Childhood , 1985 .

[565]  S. Sloman.  Feature-Based Induction , 1993, Cognitive Psychology.

[566]  Stephen R. Sutton,et al.  The decision to wear a seat belt: The role of cognitive factors, fear and prior behaviour , 1990 .

[567]  Michael H. Birnbaum,et al.  How to show that 9 > 221 : Collect judgments in a between-subjects design , 1999 .

[568]  D. Keltner,et al.  PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE Research Article MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING? Revisionists and Traditionalists Choose an Introductory , 2022 .

[569]  Douglas A. Kysar,et al.  Taking behavioralism seriously: some evidence of market manipulation. , 1999, Harvard law review.

[570]  C. A. Boneau,et al.  Short-term recognition memory under rehearsal instructions and imaging instructions , 1990 .

[571]  A. Greenwald,et al.  Under what conditions does theory obstruct research progress? , 1986, Psychological review.

[572]  Mark H. Ashcraft,et al.  A network approach to mental multiplication. , 1982 .

[573]  Theodore Schick,et al.  How to Think about Weird Things: Critical Thinking for a New Age , 1994 .

[574]  R. Keeney,et al.  Improving risk communication. , 1986, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[575]  M. Frank,et al.  The dark side of self- and social perception: black uniforms and aggression in professional sports. , 1988, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[576]  Richard A. Griggs,et al.  The Effects of Problem Content and Negation on Wason's Selection Task , 1983 .

[577]  J. Brehm.  A theory of psychological reactance. , 1981 .

[578]  Karl Halvor Teigen,et al.  Studies in subjective probability III: The unimportance of alternatives , 1983 .

[579]  A. Tversky,et al.  Intuitive Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures , 1982 .

[580]  H. Simon,et al.  Reason in Human Affairs. , 1984 .

[581]  Victor Zarnowitz,et al.  Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts , 1985 .

[582]  L. Cosmides,et al.  Beyond intuition and instinct blindness: toward an evolutionarily rigorous cognitive science , 1994, Cognition.

[583]  H. Leventhal,et al.  Findings and Theory in the Study of Fear Communications , 1970 .

[584]  J. Rush,et al.  The Speed of Light , 1955 .

[585]  J. Adler.  Abstraction is Uncooperative , 1984 .

[586]  J. H. Curtis,et al.  Learning Theory and Behavior , 1960 .

[587]  Stephen H. Penman,et al.  An Empirical-Investigation Of The Voluntary Disclosure Of Corporate-Earnings Forecasts , 1980 .

[588]  D. Dunning,et al.  Ambiguity and self-evaluation: the role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability , 1989 .

[589]  L. Brooks,et al.  Specializing the operation of an explicit rule , 1991 .

[590]  N. Schwarz,et al.  The availability heuristic revisited : experienced ease of retrieval in mundane frequency estimates , 1995 .

[591]  Anthony G. Greenwald,et al.  Increasing voting behavior by asking people if they expect to vote. , 1987 .

[592]  S. Stich.  The Fragmentation Of Reason , 1990 .

[593]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  A comparative evaluation of objective and subjective weather forecasts in the united states , 1984 .

[594]  J. Edward Russo,et al.  Where is the fault in fault trees , 1994 .

[595]  Timothy D. Wilson,et al.  Thinking too much: introspection can reduce the quality of preferences and decisions. , 1991, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[596]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Behavioral decision research: A constructive processing perspective. , 1992 .

[597]  P. Schoemaker,et al.  Probability Versus Certainty Equivalence Methods in Utility Measurement: Are they Equivalent? , 1985 .

[598]  Thomas Mussweiler,et al.  Overcoming the Inevitable Anchoring Effect: Considering the Opposite Compensates for Selective Accessibility , 2000 .

[599]  G. Northcraft,et al.  Experts, amateurs, and real estate: An anchoring-and-adjustment perspective on property pricing decisions , 1987 .

[600]  Ayleen Wisudha,et al.  Distribution of probability assessments for almanac and future event questions , 1982 .

[601]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Adaptive Strategy Selection in Decision Making. , 1988 .

[602]  R. Dawes,et al.  Linear models in decision making. , 1974 .

[603]  Shelley E. Taylor,et al.  A Better World or a Shattered Vision? Changes in Life Perspectives Following Victimization , 1990 .

[604]  W. Ziemba,et al.  Efficiency of the Market for Racetrack Betting , 1981 .

[605]  Dane K. Peterson,et al.  Confidence, uncertainty, and the use of information , 1988 .

[606]  Lawrence D. Phillips,et al.  CULTURAL VARIATION IN PROBABILISTIC THINKING: ALTERNATIVE WAYS OF DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY* , 1980 .

[607]  D. R. Lehman,et al.  Cultural variation in unrealistic optimism: Does the West feel more vulnerable than the East? , 1995 .

[608]  R. Hogarth.  Beyond discrete biases: Functional and dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics. , 1981 .

[609]  L. Thurstone.  Attitudes Can Be Measured , 1928, American Journal of Sociology.

[610]  I. Begg,et al.  Repetition and the ring of truth: Biasing comments. , 1991 .

[611]  N. Schwarz,et al.  Effects of Perceptual Fluency on Affective Judgments , 1998 .

[612]  P. Rozin,et al.  The makings of the magical mind: The nature and function of sympathetic magical thinking. , 2000 .

[613]  J. Bruner.  Actual minds, possible worlds , 1985 .

[614]  Peter Ayton,et al.  On the Competence and Incompetence of Experts , 1992 .

[615]  R. Ranyard,et al.  Chinese and English Speakers’ Linguistic Expression of Probability and Probabilistic Thinking , 1999 .

[616]  G. Affleck,et al.  Construing benefits from adversity: adaptational significance and dispositional underpinnings. , 1996, Journal of personality.

[617]  Philip E. Tetlock,et al.  Good Judgment in International Politics: Three Psychological Perspectives , 1992 .

[618]  L. Thompson,et al.  «They saw a negotiation»: partisanship and involvement , 1995 .

[619]  B. Meyerowitz,et al.  Positive expectations predict health after heart transplantation. , 1995, Health psychology : official journal of the Division of Health Psychology, American Psychological Association.

[620]  C. Nemeroff,et al.  Moral Overtones of Food: Judgments of Others Based on What they Eat , 1995 .

[621]  A. I. Shlyakhter,et al.  Quantifying the credibility of energy projections from trends in past data: the US energy sector , 1994 .

[622]  Lee Roy Beach,et al.  Image theory: Principles, goals, and plans in decision making , 1987 .

[623]  Karl Halvor Teigen,et al.  Overestimation of subjective probabilities , 1974 .

[624]  Timothy D. Wilson,et al.  Mental contamination and mental correction: unwanted influences on judgments and evaluations. , 1994, Psychological bulletin.

[625]  Jacob Cohen,et al.  A power primer. , 1992, Psychological bulletin.

[626]  Geoffrey E. Hinton.  Mapping Part-Whole Hierarchies into Connectionist Networks , 1990, Artif. Intell..

[627]  Hillel J. Einhorn,et al.  Expert measurement and mechanical combination , 1972 .

[628]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Back to Bentham? Explorations of experience utility , 1997 .

[629]  Winston R. Sieck,et al.  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes Cross-cultural Variations in Probability Judgment Accuracy: beyond General Knowledge Overconfidence? , 2022 .

[630]  F. Strack,et al.  Influence of overt head movements on memory for valenced words: a case of conceptual-motor compatibility. , 1996, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[631]  P. Tetlock,et al.  Poking Counterfactual Holes in Covering Laws: Cognitive Styles and Historical Reasoning , 2001, American Political Science Review.

[632]  Jonathan Evans.  Heuristic and analytic processes in reasoning , 1984 .

[633]  B. N. Meltzer,et al.  Predicting Length of Hospitalization of Mental Patients , 1946, American Journal of Sociology.

[634]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Hypothesis Evaluation from a Bayesian Perspective. , 1983 .

[635]  H. Simon,et al.  Models of Thought , 1979 .

[636]  T. Gilovich,et al.  The spotlight effect in social judgment: an egocentric bias in estimates of the salience of one's own actions and appearance. , 2000, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[637]  Thomas Gilovich,et al.  The Spotlight Effect and the Illusion of Transparency , 1999 .

[638]  Y. Trope.  Identification and Inferential Processes in Dispositional Attribution. , 1986 .

[639]  William R. Ferrell,et al.  The Effect of Base Rate on Calibration of Subjective Probability for True-False Questions: Model and Experiment , 1983 .

[640]  John W. Payne,et al.  The adaptive decision maker: Name index , 1993 .

[641]  T. Tyler.  Why People Obey the Law , 2021 .

[642]  E. R. Cohen,et al.  ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE OF THE 1952 DATA ON THE ATOMIC CONSTANTS AND A NEW ADJUSTMENT, 1955 , 1955 .

[643]  Elliot Aronson,et al.  The effect of severity of initiation on liking for a group. , 1959 .

[644]  Gerald L. Clore,et al.  7 – A Reinforcement-Affect Model of Attraction , 1974 .

[645]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Cognitive Processes and Societal Risk Taking , 1976 .

[646]  E. A. Alluisi,et al.  Some variables influencing the rate of gain of information. , 1962, Journal of experimental psychology.

[647]  Y. Trope,et al.  The role of feasibility and desirability considerations in near and distant future decisions: A test of temporal construal theory. , 1998 .

[648]  L. Beach,et al.  Experience and the base-rate fallacy. , 1982, Organizational behavior and human performance.

[649]  S. Carlson.  A double-blind test of astrology , 1985, Nature.

[650]  Julie C. Sedivy,et al.  Subject Terms: Linguistics Language Eyes & eyesight Cognition & reasoning , 1995 .

[651]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  Probability Forecasting in Meteorology , 1984 .

[652]  B. R. Schlenker,et al.  The Self and social life , 1987 .

[653]  W. W. Daniel.  Applied Nonparametric Statistics , 1979 .

[654]  R. Thaler,et al.  Naive Diversification Strategies in Defined Contribution Saving Plans , 2001 .

[655]  W. Ferrell,et al.  The Hard-Easy Effect in Subjective Probability Calibration , 1996 .

[656]  Hal R. Arkes,et al.  Overconfidence in Judgmental Forecasting , 2001 .

[657]  Dale T. Miller,et al.  The counterfactual fallacy: Confusing what might have been with what ought to have been , 1990 .

[658]  T. Gilovich,et al.  The experience of regret: what, when, and why. , 1995, Psychological review.

[659]  J. Nye.  Nuclear learning and U.S.–Soviet security regimes , 1987, International Organization.

[660]  Scott E. Stickel.  The Anatomy of the Performance of Buy and Sell Recommendations , 1995 .

[661]  J. M. Nuttin.  Narcissism beyond Gestalt and awareness: The name letter effect , 1985 .

[662]  P. Slovic,et al.  A psychological study of the inverse relationship between perceived risk and perceived benefit. , 1994, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[663]  Richard P. Larrick,et al.  Goals as Reference Points , 1999, Cognitive Psychology.

[664]  Thomas Gilovich,et al.  Biased evaluation and persistence in gambling. , 1983 .

[665]  J. T. Russell,et al.  Mental efficiency levels before and after shock therapy. , 1942 .

[666]  D. Funder,et al.  Errors and mistakes: evaluating the accuracy of social judgment. , 1987, Psychological bulletin.

[667]  L. Brooks,et al.  Role of specific similarity in a medical diagnostic task. , 1991, Journal of experimental psychology. General.

[668]  L. Barsalou.  Ideals, central tendency, and frequency of instantiation as determinants of graded structure in categories. , 1985, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[669]  J. Townsend,et al.  Decision field theory: a dynamic-cognitive approach to decision making in an uncertain environment. , 1993, Psychological review.

[670]  Itamar Simonson,et al.  Deescalation Strategies: A Comparison of Techniques for Reducing Commitment to Losing Courses of Action , 1992 .

[671]  L. R. Goldberg,et al.  Category breadth and hierarchical structure in personality: studies of asymmetries in judgments of trait implications. , 1986, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[672]  Robert H. Ashton,et al.  Effects of justification and a mechanical aid on judgment performance , 1992 .

[673]  A. Honoré,et al.  Causation in the law , 1960 .

[674]  Ilya R. Fischhoff,et al.  Investing in Frankenfirms: Predicting Socially Unacceptable Risks , 2001 .

[675]  J. Innes,et al.  The public's view of the impact of the mass media: A test of the ‘third person’ effect , 1988 .

[676]  Stuart Oskamp,et al.  The relationship of clinical experience and training methods to several criteria of clinical prediction. , 1962 .

[677]  G. Loewenstein,et al.  Beyond Time Discounting , 1997 .

[678]  Richard H. Thaler,et al.  Do Security Analysts Overreact , 1990 .

[679]  A. Tversky,et al.  Options traders exhibit subadditive decision weights , 1996 .

[680]  Jonathan Baron,et al.  Behavioral Law and Economics: Reluctance to Vaccinate: Omission Bias and Ambiguity , 1990 .

[681]  R. Sugden.  Regret, recrimination and rationality , 1985 .

[682]  Roni Michaely,et al.  Conflict of interest and the credibility of underwriter analyst recommendations , 1999 .

[683]  Paul Slovic,et al.  Response-induced reversals of preference in gambling: An extended replication in las vegas , 1973 .

[684]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Fault trees: Sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation. , 1978 .

[685]  S. Andersen.  Self-knowledge and social inference: II. The diagnosticity of cognitive/affective and behavioral data. , 1984 .

[686]  L. R. Goldberg,et al.  DIAGNOSTICIANS VS. DIAGNOSTIC SIGNS: THE DIAGNOSIS OF PSYCHOSIS VS. NEUROSIS FROM THE MMPI. , 1965, Psychological monographs.

[687]  P. Slovic,et al.  Reversals of preference between bids and choices in gambling decisions. , 1971 .

[688]  B. Remmo Hamel,et al.  On the Conservation of Liquids. , 1971 .

[689]  Claudia González-Vallejo,et al.  Statement Verification: A Stochastic Model of Judgment and Response. , 1994 .

[690]  Irwin P. Levin,et al.  Need for Cognition and Choice Framing Effects , 1996 .

[691]  M. Bazerman,et al.  Taking the Bias out of Bean Counting , 2001 .

[692]  Stephen M. Pollock,et al.  Multiple attribute scenarios, bounded probabilities, and threats of nuclear theft , 1982 .

[693]  Keith D. Markman,et al.  Multiple explanation: A consider-an-alternative strategy for debiasing judgments. , 1995 .

[694]  M. Telch,et al.  Proximity to safety and its effects on fear prediction bias. , 1994, Behaviour research and therapy.

[695]  Thomas Russell,et al.  The Relevance of Quasi Rationality in Competitive Markets: Reply , 1985 .

[696]  L. Ross,et al.  The Bias Blind Spot: Perceptions of Bias in Self Versus Others , 2002 .

[697]  F. Keil.  Concepts, Kinds, and Cognitive Development , 1989 .

[698]  D. Krantz,et al.  A Note on Superadditive Probability Judgment , 1999 .

[699]  T. Wills.  Downward Comparison as a Coping Mechanism , 1987 .

[700]  D. Commerce.  Statistical abstract of the United States , 1978 .

[701]  L. Festinger.  A Theory of Social Comparison Processes , 1954 .

[702]  Robert Cameron Mitchell,et al.  Using Surveys to Value Public Goods: The Contingent Valuation Method , 1989 .

[703]  David E. Bell,et al.  Risk Premiums for Decision Regret , 1983 .

[704]  S. Chaiken,et al.  Dual-process theories in social psychology , 1999 .

[705]  P. Slovic,et al.  Violence Risk Assessment and Risk Communication: The Effects of Using Actual Cases, Providing Instruction, and Employing Probability Versus Frequency Formats , 2000, Law and human behavior.

[706]  J. Carroll.  The Effect of Imagining an Event on Expectations for the Event: An Interpretation in Terms of the Availability Heuristic. , 1978 .

[707]  Dale T. Miller,et al.  Just world research and the attribution process: Looking back and ahead. , 1978 .

[708]  Gideon Keren,et al.  Facing uncertainty in the game of bridge: A calibration study , 1987 .

[709]  Steven C. Predmore,et al.  Intimates as agents of social support: sources of consolation or despair? , 1985, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[710]  Derek J. Koehler,et al.  People focus on optimistic scenarios and disregard pessimistic scenarios while predicting task completion times. , 2000, Journal of experimental psychology. Applied.

[711]  G. Ichheiser.  Misunderstandings in human relations: a study in false social perception. , 1949 .

[712]  S. Chaiken.  Heuristic versus systematic information processing and the use of source versus message cues in persuasion. , 1980 .

[713]  Jack B. Soll,et al.  Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask. , 1999, Organizational behavior and human decision processes.

[714]  J. Haidt,et al.  Affect, culture, and morality, or is it wrong to eat your dog? , 1993, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[715]  Mark R. Leary,et al.  Hindsight Distortion and the 1980 Presidential Election , 1982 .

[716]  M. Becker,et al.  Bringing the models together: An empirical approach to combining variables used to explain health actions , 1980, Journal of Behavioral Medicine.

[717]  Richard Kammann,et al.  Affectometer 2: A scale to measure current level of general happiness , 1983 .

[718]  Howard Raiffa,et al.  Decision analysis: introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty. 1968. , 1969, M.D.Computing.

[719]  H. A. Taylor,et al.  The conjunction fallacy? , 1990, Memory & cognition.

[720]  N. Schwarz,et al.  Mood and Persuasion: Affective States Influence the Processing of Persuasive Communications , 1991 .

[721]  Joy G. Dryfoos,et al.  Adolescents at Risk: Prevalence and Prevention , 1991 .

[722]  P. Totterdell,et al.  Forecasting Feelings: The accuracy and effects of self-predictions of mood , 1997 .

[723]  V. Girotto,et al.  Solving probabilistic and statistical problems: a matter of information structure and question form , 2001, Cognition.

[724]  A. Calev,et al.  THE INFLUENCE OF CHRISTIAN NAME STEREOTYPES ON THE MARKING OF CHILDREN'S ESSAYS , 1984 .

[725]  Walter Schneider,et al.  Controlled and automatic human information processing: II. Perceptual learning, automatic attending and a general theory. , 1977 .

[726]  R. Roll,et al.  The Hubris Hypothesis of Corporate Takeovers , 1986 .

[727]  Ira A. Noveck,et al.  Are conjunction rule violations the result of conversational rule violations? , 1991 .

[728]  Mark R. Lepper,et al.  Social explanation and social expectation: Effects of real and hypothetical explanations on subjective likelihood. , 1977 .

[729]  M. Ross.  Relation of Implicit Theories to the Construction of Personal Histories , 1989 .

[730]  B. Whitley,et al.  Perceptions of Vulnerability to Pregnancy and the Use of Effective Contraception , 1991 .

[731]  L. Ross,et al.  Actual versus assumed differences in construal: 'naive realism' in intergroup perception and conflict , 1995 .

[732]  Alexander J. Rothman,et al.  Absolute and Relative Biases in Estimations of Personal Risk , 1996 .

[733]  A. Tversky,et al.  On the psychology of prediction , 1973 .

[734]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Duration neglect in retrospective evaluations of affective episodes. , 1993, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[735]  J. Landman.  Regret and Elation Following Action and Inaction , 1987 .

[736]  J. Crocker.  Biased Questions in Judgment of Covariation Studies , 1982 .

[737]  T. Gilovich,et al.  The Perceiver as Perceived: Everyday Intuitions About the Correspondence Bias , 1999 .

[738]  G. Ryle,et al.  心的概念 = The concept of mind , 1962 .

[739]  B. Mellers,et al.  Bayesian inference: Combining base rates with opinions of sources who vary in credibility. , 1983 .

[740]  P. Wason.  On the Failure to Eliminate Hypotheses in a Conceptual Task , 1960 .

[741]  S. B. Filskov,et al.  Clinical detection of intellectual deterioration associated with brain damage. , 1984, Journal of clinical psychology.

[742]  R. Dawes.  Judgment under uncertainty: The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making , 1979 .

[743]  B. Keysar,et al.  The Illusory Transparency of Intention: Linguistic Perspective Taking in Text , 1994, Cognitive Psychology.

[744]  R. Harris,et al.  What's fair? It depends on how you phrase the question. , 1980 .

[745]  L. Ross,et al.  Perseverance of Social Theories: The Role of Explanation in the Persistence of Discredited Information , 1980 .

[746]  L. Ross,et al.  Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment. , 1981 .

[747]  A. Tversky,et al.  Who accepts Savage's axiom? , 1974 .

[748]  A. Tversky,et al.  BELIEF IN THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS , 1971, Pediatrics.

[749]  I. Ajzen.  The theory of planned behavior , 1991 .

[750]  J. Cacioppo,et al.  Rudimentary determinants of attitudes. II: Arm flexion and extension have differential effects on attitudes. , 1993, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[751]  A. Bandura.  Self-Efficacy: The Exercise of Control , 1997, Journal of Cognitive Psychotherapy.

[752]  Paul Slovic,et al.  Dimensional Commensurability and Cue Utilization in Comparative Judgment. , 1974 .

[753]  Mitchell J. Small,et al.  What information belongs in a warning , 1998 .

[754]  Peter Salovey,et al.  Mood and memory: Evaluating the network theory of affect , 1988 .

[755]  Shelley E. Taylor.  Judgment under uncertainty: The availability bias in social perception and interaction , 1982 .

[756]  Keith E. Stanovich,et al.  Individual differences in rational thought. , 1998 .

[757]  L. Jacoby,et al.  Adult Egocentrism: Subjective Experience versus Analytic Bases for Judgment , 1996 .

[758]  Barry N. Taylor,et al.  The 1973 Least‐Squares Adjustment of the Fundamental Constants , 1973 .

[759]  J. Bruner.  Acts of meaning , 1990 .

[760]  Jonathan St. B. T. Evans,et al.  Deciding before you think: Relevance and reasoning in the selection task , 1996 .

[761]  L. Hasher,et al.  Automatic and effortful processes in memory. , 1979 .

[762]  W. Bottom.  Keynes' Attack on the Versailles Treaty: An Early Investigation of the Consequences of Bounded Rationality, Framing, and Cognitive Illusions , 2003 .

[763]  D. Bem.  Self-perception: An alternative interpretation of cognitive dissonance phenomena. , 1967, Psychological review.

[764]  J. Krueger,et al.  Social categorization and the truly false consensus effect. , 1993 .

[765]  Norbert Schwarz,et al.  Soccer, rooms, and the quality of your life: Mood effects on judgments of satisfaction with life in general and with specific domains , 1987 .

[766]  John W. Atkinson,et al.  Introduction: Motivation , 1964 .

[767]  B Fischhoff,et al.  Risk perception and communication unplugged: twenty years of process. , 1995, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[768]  David L. Ronis,et al.  Components of probability judgment accuracy: Individual consistency and effects of subject matter and assessment method. , 1987 .

[769]  H. Grice.  Logic and conversation , 1975 .

[770]  W. Swann,et al.  Hypothesis-Testing Processes in Social Interaction , 1978 .

[771]  L. Jonathan Cohen,et al.  The Dialogue Of Reason , 1986 .

[772]  J. W. Richards,et al.  Brand logo recognition by children aged 3 to 6 years. Mickey Mouse and Old Joe the Camel. , 1991, JAMA.

[773]  Robert S. Wyer,et al.  An investigation of the relations among probability estimates , 1976 .

[774]  P. Gollwitzer,et al.  Implementation intentions and effective goal pursuit , 1997 .

[775]  C. Nickerson.  Does Willingness to Pay Reflect the Purchase of Moral Satisfaction? A Reconsideration of Kahneman and Knetsch , 1995 .

[776]  L. J. Chapman,et al.  Genesis of popular but erroneous psychodiagnostic observations. , 1967, Journal of abnormal psychology.

[777]  J. Piaget,et al.  The Origin of the Idea of Chance in Children , 1975 .

[778]  D. Kahneman.  A psychological point of view: Violations of rational rules as a diagnostic of mental processes , 2000, Behavioral and Brain Sciences.

[779]  C. Spearman,et al.  "THE ABILITIES OF MAN". , 1928, Science.

[780]  P. Juslin,et al.  Realism of confidence in sensory discrimination: The underconfidence phenomenon , 1993, Perception & psychophysics.

[781]  R. Nisbett,et al.  The dilution effect: Nondiagnostic information weakens the implications of diagnostic information , 1981, Cognitive Psychology.

[782]  Daniel Kahneman,et al.  Referendum contingent valuation, anchoring, and willingness to pay for public goods , 1998 .

[783]  E. R. Cohen,et al.  Least-Squares Adjustment of the Atomic Constants, 1952 , 1953 .

[784]  Nick Chater,et al.  Theories of reasoning and the computational explanation of everyday inference , 1995 .

[785]  E. Richard Cohen,et al.  The fundamental constants of physics , 1957 .

[786]  P. Slovic.  The Construction of Preference , 1995 .

[787]  P. Fishburn.  Nontransitive measurable utility , 1982 .

[788]  Paul Rozin,et al.  Operation of the sympathetic magical law of contagion in interpersonal attitudes among Americans , 1989 .

[789]  P. H. Blaney.  Affect and memory: a review. , 1986, Psychological bulletin.

[790]  E. Higgins,et al.  Individual construct accessibility and subjective impressions and recall. , 1982 .

[791]  D. Gilbert,et al.  The correspondence bias. , 1995, Psychological bulletin.

[792]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Does Living in California Make People Happy? A Focusing Illusion in Judgments of Life Satisfaction , 1998 .

[793]  M. Gerrard,et al.  Judgments of Vulnerability to Pregnancy: The Role of Risk Factors and Individual Differences , 1995 .

[794]  Daniel S. Nagin,et al.  The Effect of Sexual Arousal on Expectations of Sexual Forcefulness , 1997 .

[795]  P Slovic,et al.  Adolescent health-threatening and health-enhancing behaviors: a study of word association and imagery. , 1995, The Journal of adolescent health : official publication of the Society for Adolescent Medicine.

[796]  Christopher K. Hsee.  Elastic Justification: How Tempting But Task-Irrelevant Factors Influence Decisions , 1995 .

[797]  D Kahneman,et al.  On the reality of cognitive illusions. , 1996, Psychological review.

[798]  Patrick Suppes,et al.  Approximate probability and expectation of gambles , 1975 .

[799]  Melanie C. Green,et al.  Coping with Accountability Cross-Pressures: Low-Effort Evasive Tactics and High-Effort Quests for Complex Compromises , 2000 .

[800]  Marianne LaFrance,et al.  Why Smiles Generate Leniency , 1995 .

[801]  J. Sawyer,et al.  Measurement and prediction, clinical and statistical. , 1966, Psychological bulletin.

[802]  K. Manktelow,et al.  Facilitation of reasoning by realism: Effect or non‐effect? , 1979 .

[803]  T. Wills.  Downward Comparison Principles in Social Psychology , 1981 .

[804]  Howard Wainer,et al.  On the sensitivity of regression and regressors. , 1978 .

[805]  Thomas Gilovich,et al.  Commission, Omission, and Dissonance Reduction: Coping with Regret in the "Monty Hall" Problem , 1995 .

[806]  R. A. Schwartz,et al.  Falling in Love AgaiAnalysts' Estimates and Reality , 1994 .

[807]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Judgment under uncertainty: Debiasing , 1982 .

[808]  David Laibson,et al.  Experienced Utility and Objective Happiness: A Moment-Based Approach , 2001 .

[809]  E. E. Jones,et al.  Foundations of Social Psychology , 1967 .

[810]  K. Stanovich,et al.  Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? , 2000, Behavioral and Brain Sciences.

[811]  B. Malkiel.  A Random Walk Down Wall Street , 1973 .

[812]  C. Peterson,et al.  SAMPLE SIZE AND THE REVISION OF SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES. , 1965, Journal of experimental psychology.

[813]  A. Tversky,et al.  The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences , 1985, Cognitive Psychology.

[814]  Richard A. Griggs,et al.  The elusive thematic‐materials effect in Wason's selection task , 1982 .

[815]  Phillip E. Pfeifer,et al.  Are We Overconfident in the Belief That Probability Forecasters Are Overconfident , 1994 .

[816]  Abhijit Biswas,et al.  Consumer perceptions of tensile price claims in advertisements: An assessment of claim types across different discount levels , 1993 .

[817]  A. Tversky,et al.  Causal Schemata in Judgments under Uncertainty , 1982 .

[818]  Norbert Schwarz,et al.  The Smell of Bias: What Instigates Correction Processes in Social Judgments? , 1998 .

[819]  H. Helson.  Adaptation-level theory : an experimental and systematic approach to behavior , 1964 .

[820]  Clark McCauley,et al.  Individual differences in sensitivity to disgust: A scale sampling seven domains of disgust elicitors , 1994 .

[821]  W. Klein,et al.  Heuristics and Biases: Resistance of Personal Risk Perceptions to Debiasing Interventions , 2002 .

[822]  M. Lerner,et al.  The Belief in a Just World: A Fundamental Delusion , 1980 .

[823]  Ruth Beyth-Marom,et al.  How probable is probable? A numerical translation of verbal probability expressions , 1982 .

[824]  J. Baron,et al.  Status-quo and omission biases , 1992 .

[825]  Raymond J. Kopp,et al.  Why Existence Value should be used in Cost‐Benefit Analysis , 1992 .

[826]  Terrance Odean,et al.  Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses? , 1996 .

[827]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  I knew it would happen: Remembered probabilities of once—future things , 1975 .

[828]  Fritz Heider,et al.  Social perception and phenomenal causality. , 1944 .

[829]  Dale T. Miller,et al.  Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives , 1986 .

[830]  W. Casscells,et al.  Interpretation by physicians of clinical laboratory results. , 1978, The New England journal of medicine.

[831]  J. Keller.  The Probability of Heads , 1986 .

[832]  P. Slovic,et al.  The Role of Affect and Worldviews as Orienting Dispositions in the Perception and Acceptance of Nuclear Power1 , 1996 .

[833]  G. Clore,et al.  Mood, misattribution, and judgments of well-being: Informative and directive functions of affective states. , 1983 .

[834]  J. G. Hollands,et al.  Engineering Psychology and Human Performance , 1984 .

[835]  G. Gigerenzer.  How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases” , 1991 .

[836]  W. James,et al.  The Principles of Psychology. , 1983 .

[837]  J. Flavell.  The development of children's knowledge about the appearance-reality distinction. , 1986, The American psychologist.

[838]  Daniel Kahneman,et al.  Predicting a changing taste: Do people know what they will like? , 1992 .

[839]  T. O. Nelson,et al.  Availability of Information and the Aggregation of Confidence in Prior Decisions , 1996 .

[840]  Shelley E. Taylor,et al.  From Thought to Action: Effects of Process-Versus Outcome-Based Mental Simulations on Performance , 1999 .

[841]  R. Dawes.  A case study of graduate admissions: Application of three principles of human decision making. , 1971 .

[842]  L. Jacoby,et al.  On the relationship between autobiographical memory and perceptual learning. , 1981, Journal of experimental psychology. General.

[843]  Robin M. Hogarth,et al.  A Theory of Diagnostic Inference. I. Imagination and the Psychophysics of Evidence. , 1982 .

[844]  B. Keysar,et al.  Swimming against the current: Do idioms reflect conceptual structure? , 1999 .

[845]  A. Tversky,et al.  Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty , 1992 .

[846]  W. Sluckin,et al.  Flocking of Domestic Chicks , 1964, Nature.

[847]  F. Mosteller,et al.  Costs, Risks, and Benefits of Surgery , 1977 .

[848]  Norbert Schwarz,et al.  Constructing reality and its alternatives: an inclusion/ exclusion model of assimilation and contrast effects in social judgment , 1992 .

[849]  Lawrence D. Phillips,et al.  Cultural differences in viewing uncertainty and assessing probabilities , 1977 .

[850]  Paul Slovic,et al.  Rational Actors and Rational Fools: The Influence of Affect on Judgment and Decision-Making , 2000 .

[851]  S. Plous,et al.  Thinking the Unthinkable : The Effects of Anchoring on Likelihood Estimates of Nuclear Warl , 1989 .

[852]  F. Crosby,et al.  A model of egoistical relative deprivation. , 1976 .

[853]  E. E. Jones,et al.  From Acts To Dispositions The Attribution Process In Person Perception1 , 1965 .

[854]  Timothy D. Wilson,et al.  A new look at anchoring effects: basic anchoring and its antecedents. , 1996, Journal of experimental psychology. General.

[855]  Paul E. Meehl,et al.  A comparison of clinicians with five statistical methods of identifying psychotic MMPI profiles. , 1959 .

[856]  W. Turnbull.  Naive conceptions of free will and the deterministic paradox. , 1981 .

[857]  R. Baer,et al.  The bias phenomenon in attitude attribution: Actor and observer perspectives. , 1979 .

[858]  S. Sherman.  On the self-erasing nature of errors of prediction. , 1980 .

[859]  H. Ibsen,et al.  Ibsen : letters and speeches , 1965 .

[860]  P. Mongin.  Some connections between epistemic logic and the theory of nonadditive probability , 1994 .

[861]  I. Janis,et al.  Decision Making: A Psychological Analysis of Conflict, Choice, and Commitment , 1977 .

[862]  D. Sarel,et al.  Nonunique invulnerability : Singular versus distributional probabilities and unrealistic optimism in comparative risk judgments , 1996 .

[863]  George Lakoff,et al.  Hedges: A Study In Meaning Criteria And The Logic Of Fuzzy Concepts , 1973 .

[864]  P. Brickman,et al.  Lottery winners and accident victims: is happiness relative? , 1978, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[865]  J. Mackie,et al.  The cement of the universe : a study of causation , 1977 .

[866]  R. Buehler,et al.  The Role of Motivated Reasoning in Optimistic Time Predictions , 1997 .

[867]  F E Harrell,et al.  The Covariance Decomposition of the Probability Score and Its Use in Evaluating Prognostic Estimates , 1995, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[868]  Robert L. Winkler,et al.  Evaluating and Combining Physicians' Probabilities of Survival in an Intensive Care Unit , 1993 .

[869]  J. Carroll.  Psychometrics, intelligence, and public perception. , 1997 .

[870]  A. Tversky,et al.  Risk Attitudes and Decision Weights , 1995 .

[871]  G. W. Walster,et al.  "Playing hard to get": Understanding an elusive phenomenon. , 1973 .

[872]  J. Dovidio,et al.  On the nature of prejudice: Automatic and controlled processes , 1997 .

[873]  D. Hilton,et al.  Base Rates, Representativeness, and the Logic of Conversation: The Contextual Relevance of “Irrelevant” Information , 1991 .

[874]  C. R. Snyder,et al.  Excuses: their effective role in the negotiation of reality. , 1988, Psychological bulletin.

[875]  Nicholas Rescher,et al.  Rationality: A Philosophical Inquiry into the Nature and the Rationale of Reason , 1988 .

[876]  J. Pruyn,et al.  Effects of public education about breast cancer and breast self-examination. , 1984, Social science & medicine.

[877]  R. Sternberg,et al.  Evaluation of evidence in causal inference. , 1981 .

[878]  Alvin I. Goldman,et al.  Epistemics: The Regulative Theory of Cognition , 1978 .

[879]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Timid choices and bold forecasts: a cognitive perspective on risk taking , 1993 .

[880]  S. Sloman.  Categorical Inference Is Not a Tree: The Myth of Inheritance Hierarchies , 1998, Cognitive Psychology.

[881]  S. Pinker.  How the Mind Works , 1999, Philosophy after Darwin.

[882]  R. Wyer,et al.  Social Cognition, Inference, and Attribution , 1979 .

[883]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Attention and Effort , 1973 .

[884]  Nancy E. Avis,et al.  Base rates can affect individual predictions. , 1980 .

[885]  Sandy K. Wurtele,et al.  Increasing Women's Calcium Intake: The Role of Health Beliefs, Intentions, and Health Value1 , 1988 .

[886]  G. Vaillant.  The wisdom of the ego , 1993 .

[887]  D. Ariely.  Combining experiences over time: the effects of duration, intensity changes and on‐line measurements on retrospective pain evaluations , 1998 .

[888]  H. H. Clark,et al.  Perceptual coding strategies in the formation and verification of descriptions , 1974, Memory & cognition.

[889]  M. Zax,et al.  Cultural influences on response style: comparisons of Japanese and American college students. , 1967, The Journal of social psychology.

[890]  G. Keren,et al.  On the ability of monitoring non-veridical perceptions and uncertain knowledge: some calibration studies. , 1988, Acta psychologica.

[891]  A. Damasio.  Descarte's error : emotion, reason, and the human brain , 1994 .

[892]  J. V. Wood,et al.  Theory and Research Concerning Social Comparisons of Personal Attributes , 1989 .

[893]  Philip E. Tetlock,et al.  Close-call counterfactuals and belief-system defenses: I was not almost wrong but I was almost right. , 1998 .

[894]  R. Kessler,et al.  Perceived Risk of AIDS: Assessing the Behavioral and Psychosocial Consequences in a Cohort of Gay Men1 , 1987 .

[895]  Robert S. Wyer,et al.  The mental representation of trait and autobiographical knowledge about the self , 1993 .

[896]  Eva Kahana,et al.  Coping with Extreme Trauma , 1988 .

[897]  David E. Bell,et al.  Regret in Decision Making under Uncertainty , 1982, Oper. Res..

[898]  G. Loewenstein.  Anticipation and the Valuation of Delayed Consumption , 1987 .

[899]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Modeling the Societal Impact of Fatal Accidents , 1984 .

[900]  P. Tetlock.  Accountability and the perseverance of first impressions. , 1983 .

[901]  Brian H. Bornstein,et al.  The More You Ask For, the More You Get: Anchoring in Personal Injury Verdicts , 1996 .

[902]  J. V. Wood,et al.  It Could Be Worse: Selective Evaluation as a Response to Victimization , 1983 .

[903]  B. Keysar,et al.  Intuitions of the transparency of idioms: Can one keep a secret by spilling the beans? , 1995 .

[904]  A. Tversky,et al.  The Psychology of Preferences , 1982 .

[905]  Edward E. Smith,et al.  A disconfirmation bias in the evaluation of arguments. , 1996 .

[906]  S. Sloman.  The empirical case for two systems of reasoning. , 1996 .

[907]  M. Birnbaum.  Base Rates in Bayesian Inference: Signal Detection Analysis of the Cab Problem , 1983 .

[908]  P. Rozin,et al.  “You Are What You Eat”: Applying the Demand‐Free “Impressions” Technique to an Unacknowledged Belief , 1989 .

[909]  D. Frisch.  Reasons for framing effects. , 1993 .

[910]  M. Brewer,et al.  A schematic model of dispositional attribution in interpersonal perception. , 1979 .

[911]  A. Arrowood,et al.  Information Processing and the Perseverance of Discredited Self-Perceptions , 1979 .

[912]  Paul Thagard,et al.  From the Descriptive to the Normative in Psychology and Logic , 1982, Philosophy of Science.

[913]  G. A. Miller,et al.  Book Review Nisbett, R. , & Ross, L.Human inference: Strategies and shortcomings of social judgment.Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1980. , 1982 .

[914]  Daniel Kahneman,et al.  Memories of colonoscopy: a randomized trial , 2003, Pain.

[915]  John A. Bargh,et al.  The additive nature of chronic and temporary sources of construct accessibility. , 1986 .

[916]  T. Chartrand,et al.  THE UNBEARABLE AUTOMATICITY OF BEING , 1999 .

[917]  Paul Rozin,et al.  THE BORDERS OF THE SELF : CONTAMINATION SENSITIVITY AND POTENCY OF THE BODY APERTURES AND OTHER BODY PARTS , 1995 .

[918]  C. Hempel,et al.  Aspects of Scientific Explanation and Other Essays in the Philosophy of Science. , 1966 .

[919]  Amos Tversky,et al.  Endowment and contrast in judgments of well-being. , 1991 .

[920]  Willem A. Wagenaar,et al.  On the psychology of playing blackjack: Normative and descriptive considerations with implications for decision theory. , 1985 .

[921]  Stephen M. Johnson,et al.  The affect heuristic in judgments of risks and benefits , 2000 .

[922]  Kimihiko Yamagishi,et al.  Consistencies and Biases in Risk Perception: I. Anchoring Process and Response-Range Effect , 1994 .

[923]  R. Skov,et al.  Information-gathering processes: Diagnosticity, hypothesis-confirmatory strategies, and perceived hypothesis confirmation. , 1986 .

[924]  Shelley E. Taylor,et al.  Salience, Attention, and Attribution: Top of the Head Phenomena , 1978 .

[925]  Edward E. Smith,et al.  Typicality and reasoning fallacies , 1990, Memory & cognition.

[926]  S. Oskamp.  OVERCONFIDENCE IN CASE-STUDY JUDGMENTS. , 1965, Journal of consulting psychology.

[927]  Kim,et al.  Social conflict: Escalation, stalemate, and settlement , 1986 .

[928]  L. Ross,et al.  You don't know me, but I know you: the illusion of asymmetric insight. , 2001, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[929]  Peter A. Diamond,et al.  Testing the Internal Consistency of Contingent Valuation Surveys , 1996 .

[930]  J. Elster.  Ulysses And The Sirens , 1979 .

[931]  Robert Legvold,et al.  Russia under the Bolshevik Regime , 1994 .

[932]  Norbert Schwarz,et al.  Forming Judgments of Attitude Certainty, Intensity, and Importance: The Role of Subjective Experiences , 1999 .

[933]  C. Spearman.  General intelligence Objectively Determined and Measured , 1904 .

[934]  R. Hogarth,et al.  Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity. , 1978 .

[935]  J. S. Evans,et al.  Matching bias in the selection task. , 1973 .

[936]  Norbert Schwarz,et al.  Accessible Content and Accessibility Experiences: The Interplay of Declarative and Experiential Information in Judgment , 1998, Personality and social psychology review : an official journal of the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

[937]  Yaacov Schul,et al.  When discounting fails: Conditions under which individuals use discredited information in making a judgment. , 1985 .

[938]  Peace,et al.  The Economic Way of Looking at Behavior: The Nobel Lecture , 1996 .

[939]  L. J. Chapman,et al.  Illusory correlation as an obstacle to the use of valid psychodiagnostic signs. , 1969, Journal of abnormal psychology.

[940]  R. Sugden,et al.  Regret Theory: An alternative theory of rational choice under uncertainty Review of Economic Studies , 1982 .

[941]  Max H. Bazerman,et al.  The Role of Perspective-Taking Ability in Negotiating under Different Forms of Arbitration , 1983 .

[942]  Shinsuke Shimojo,et al.  Intuitive reasoning about probability: Theoretical and experimental analyses of the “problem of three prisoners” , 1989, Cognition.

[943]  N. Miller,et al.  Social Learning and Imitation , 1942 .

[944]  Marcel Adam Just,et al.  Sentence comprehension: A psycholinguistic processing model of verification. , 1975 .

[945]  R. W. Marks,et al.  The effect of probability, desirability, and "privilege" on the stated expectations of children. , 1951, Journal of personality.

[946]  John B. Pryor,et al.  Use of the availability heuristic in probability estimates of future events: The effects of imagining outcomes versus imagining reasons , 1987 .

[947]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Teen expectations for significant life events. , 2000, Public opinion quarterly.

[948]  Carl-Axel S. Staël von Holstein,et al.  Probabilistic forecasting: An experiment related to the stock market , 1972 .

[949]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Setting Standards: A Systematic Approach to Managing Public Health and Safety Risks , 1984 .

[950]  Keith J Holyoak,et al.  Pragmatic reasoning schemas , 1985, Cognitive Psychology.

[951]  David M. Messick,et al.  Equality as a decision heuristic. , 1993 .

[952]  D. Hilton,et al.  Knowledge-Based Causal Attribution: The Abnormal Conditions Focus Model , 1986 .

[953]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Cognitive processes in preference reversals , 1989 .

[954]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Bias in utility assessments: further evidence and explanations , 1989 .

[955]  D. Dutton,et al.  Some evidence for heightened sexual attraction under conditions of high anxiety. , 1974, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[956]  James A. Davis,et al.  The Campus as a Frog Pond: An Application of the Theory of Relative Deprivation to Career Decisions of College Men , 1966, American Journal of Sociology.

[957]  Daniel Kahneman,et al.  Judgment and Decision Making: A Personal View , 1991 .

[958]  J A Swets,et al.  Form of empirical ROCs in discrimination and diagnostic tasks: implications for theory and measurement of performance. , 1986, Psychological bulletin.

[959]  O. Svenson.  ARE WE ALL LESS RISKY AND MORE SKILLFUL THAN OUR FELLOW DRIVERS , 1981 .

[960]  Dale T. Miller,et al.  Temporal order and the perceived mutability of events: implications for blame assignment , 1990 .

[961]  Benjamin Czaczkes,et al.  The Natural Selection of Prediction Heuristics: Anchoring and Adjustment versus Representativeness , 1996 .

[962]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Do Frequency Representations Eliminate Conjunction Effects? An Exercise in Adversarial Collaboration , 2001, Psychological science.

[963]  Teresa M. Amabile,et al.  Judgment under uncertainty: Informal covariation assessment: Data-based versus theory-based judgments , 1982 .

[964]  G. Bodenhausen,et al.  Happiness and stereotypic thinking in social judgment. , 1994 .

[965]  A. Fallon,et al.  The Child's Conception of Food: The Development of Contamination Sensitivity to "Disgusting" Substances. , 1985 .

[966]  Vera Hoorens,et al.  The optimal impact phenomenon : beyond the third person effect , 1996 .

[967]  S. E. Taylor,et al.  Social comparison activity under threat: downward evaluation and upward contacts. , 1989, Psychological review.

[968]  Thomas Gilovich,et al.  "What, Me Worry?": Arousal, Misattribution, and the Effect of Temporal Distance on Confidence , 1998 .

[969]  I. Borg.  The effect of mood on different types of well-being judgments. , 1987, Archiv fur Psychologie.

[970]  A. Isen,et al.  Affect, accessibility of material in memory, and behavior: a cognitive loop? , 1978, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[971]  Edward B. Royzman,et al.  Negativity Bias, Negativity Dominance, and Contagion , 2001 .

[972]  J. Mearsheimer.  Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War , 1990 .

[973]  N. Wetherick,et al.  Reasoning and Rationality , 1995 .

[974]  J. Swets,et al.  A decision-making theory of visual detection. , 1954, Psychological review.

[975]  R. Revlin,et al.  The belief-bias effect in formal reasoning: The influence of knowledge on logic , 1980, Memory & cognition.

[976]  R. Hastie.  Causes and effects of causal attribution , 1984 .

[977]  R. Hogarth,et al.  Order effects in belief updating: The belief-adjustment model , 1992, Cognitive Psychology.

[978]  J. Eiser,et al.  COMPARATIVE JUDGMENTS AND PREFERENCES : THE INFLUENCE OF THE NUMBER OF RESPONSE ALTERNATIVES , 1987 .

[979]  P. Tetlock,et al.  Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives , 1996 .

[980]  Joel T. Johnson.  The Knowledge of What Might have Been , 1986 .

[981]  C. Ward.  Surgical research, experimentation and innovation. , 1994, British journal of plastic surgery.

[982]  T. W. Ross,et al.  Forward induction in coordination games , 1992 .

[983]  John T. Cacioppo,et al.  The Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion , 1986, Advances in Experimental Social Psychology.

[984]  G. Clore,et al.  Affective causes and consequences of social information processing. , 1994 .

[985]  R. H. Willis,et al.  Do security analysts improve their performance with experience , 1997 .

[986]  L. J. Savage,et al.  The Foundations of Statistics , 1955 .

[987]  David F. Lancy,et al.  Likeness and Likelihood in Everyday Thought: Magical Thinking in Judgments About Personality [and Comments and Reply] , 1977, Current Anthropology.

[988]  Henry Montgomery,et al.  Decision Rules and the Search for a Dominance Structure: Towards a Process Model of Decision Making* , 1983 .

[989]  John R. Anderson.  A spreading activation theory of memory. , 1983 .

[990]  E. Brunswik.  Representative design and probabilistic theory in a functional psychology. , 1955, Psychological review.

[991]  R. Buehler,et al.  It's About Time: Optimistic Predictions in Work and Love , 1995 .

[992]  Keith E. Stanovich,et al.  Individual differences in framing and conjunction effects , 1998 .

[993]  W. Edwards.  Behavioral decision theory. , 1961, Annual review of psychology.

[994]  K. Stanovich.  How to think straight about psychology , 1985 .

[995]  J. Frank Yates,et al.  Probabilistic forecasts of stock prices and earnings: The hazards of nascent expertise , 1991 .

[996]  J. Edward Russo,et al.  An availability bias in professional judgment. , 1988 .

[997]  D. Hirshleifer,et al.  Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather , 2001 .

[998]  G. Gigerenzer.  From Tools to Theories: A Heuristic of Discovery in Cognitive Psychology. , 1991 .

[999]  G. Keren.  Calibration and probability judgements: Conceptual and methodological issues , 1991 .

[1000]  Grover C. Mathewson,et al.  The effects of severity of initiation on liking for a group: A replication , 1966 .

[1001]  T. Sargent.  Bounded rationality in macroeconomics , 1993 .

[1002]  G. Wells,et al.  Mental Simulation of Causality , 1989 .

[1003]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  How safe is safe enough? A psychometric study of attitudes towards technological risks and benefits , 1978 .

[1004]  Keith E. Stanovich,et al.  Discrepancies Between Normative and Descriptive Models of Decision Making and the Understanding/Acceptance Principle , 1999, Cognitive Psychology.

[1005]  L. R. Goldberg.  Simple models or simple processes? Some research on clinical judgments. , 1968, The American psychologist.

[1006]  N. Schwarz,et al.  POLITICAL KNOWLEDGE, ATTRIBUTION, AND INFERRED INTEREST IN POLITICS: THE OPERATION OF BUFFER ITEMS , 1997 .

[1007]  Seymour Epstein,et al.  Irrational reactions to negative outcomes : evidence for two conceptual systems , 1992 .

[1008]  J. Yates,et al.  Beliefs about Overconfidence, Including Its Cross-National Variation , 1996 .

[1009]  Mats Björkman,et al.  Brunswikian and Thurstonian Origins of Bias in Probability Assessment: On the Interpretation of Stochastic Components of Judgment , 1997 .

[1010]  D. Olson,et al.  Language, Literacy, and Mental States. , 1987 .

[1011]  E. Poulton.  The new psychophysics: Six models for magnitude estimation. , 1968 .

[1012]  J R Thornbury,et al.  A second look at the utility of radiographic skull examination for trauma. , 1979, AJR. American journal of roentgenology.

[1013]  Elizabeth A. Casman,et al.  An Integrated Risk Model of a Drinking‐Water – Borne Cryptosporidiosis Outbreak , 2000, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[1014]  Lyle E. Bourne,et al.  Decisions and memory: Differential retrievability of consistent and contradictory evidence , 1984 .

[1015]  A. H. Murphy.  A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score , 1973 .

[1016]  Eldar Shafir,et al.  Choosing versus rejecting: Why some options are both better and worse than others , 1993, Memory & cognition.

[1017]  M. Bar-Hillel,et al.  How alike is it versus how likely is it: A disjunction fallacy in probability judgments. , 1993 .

[1018]  R M Centor,et al.  Physicians' survival predictions for patients with acute congestive heart failure. , 1997, Archives of internal medicine.

[1019]  M. L. Klotz,et al.  Personal contact, individuation, and the better-than-average effect. , 1995 .

[1020]  Gary H. McClelland,et al.  Probability and utility of endangered species preservation programs , 1996 .

[1021]  R. C. Sinclair,et al.  Colors, Smiles, and Frowns: External Affective Cues can Directly Affect Responses to Persuasive Communications in a Mood-like Manner Without Affecting Mood , 2001 .

[1022]  Duane T. Wegener,et al.  Mood management across affective states: the hedonic contingency hypothesis. , 1994, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[1023]  Lewis O. Harvey,et al.  The Application of Signal Detection Theory to Weather Forecasting Behavior , 1992 .

[1024]  Timothy C. Brock,et al.  Distraction Can Enhance or Reduce Yielding to Propaganda: Thought Disruption Versus Effort Justification , 1976 .

[1025]  D. Gentner,et al.  Structural Alignment during Similarity Comparisons , 1993, Cognitive Psychology.

[1026]  Dacher Kehner,et al.  The Influence of Attributions on the Relevance of Negative Feelings to Personal Satisfaction , 1993 .

[1027]  W. Leiss.  Three Phases in the Evolution of Risk Communication Practice , 1996 .

[1028]  Lynn A. Baker,et al.  When every relationship is above average , 1993 .

[1029]  D. Laitin.  The Game Theory of Language Regimes , 1993 .

[1030]  Michel Tuan Pham,et al.  All Negative Moods Are Not Equal: Motivational Influences of Anxiety and Sadness on Decision Making. , 1999, Organizational behavior and human decision processes.

[1031]  L. Perloff,et al.  Self–other judgments and perceived vulnerability to victimization. , 1986 .

[1032]  Edward E. Jones,et al.  Effects of strategic self-presentation on subsequent self-esteem. , 1981 .

[1033]  P M Sandman,et al.  Perceived susceptibility and self-protective behavior: a field experiment to encourage home radon testing. , 1991, Health psychology : official journal of the Division of Health Psychology, American Psychological Association.

[1034]  Hylton Boothroyd.  Image Theory: Decision Making in Personal and Organizational Contexts. , 1990 .

[1035]  Duane T. Wegener,et al.  Flexible correction processes in social judgment: the role of naive theories in corrections for perceived bias. , 1995, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[1036]  Josef Lakonishok,et al.  A Study of Economists' Consensus Forecasts , 1983 .

[1037]  S. Tambiah,et al.  Magic, science, religion, and the scope of rationality , 1991 .

[1038]  J. S. Shrauger,et al.  Depressive Symptoms and Accuracy in the Prediction of Future Events , 1998 .

[1039]  J. Forgas.  Mood and judgment: the affect infusion model (AIM). , 1995, Psychological bulletin.

[1040]  I. Levi.  Who commits the base rate fallacy? , 1983, Behavioral and Brain Sciences.

[1041]  Duane T. Wegener,et al.  Flexible Correction Processes in Social Judgment: Correcting for Context-Induced Contrast , 1993 .

[1042]  Massimo Piattelli-Palmarini,et al.  Inevitable Illusions: How Mistakes of Reason Rule Our Minds , 1994 .

[1043]  N. Schwarz,et al.  Beliefs Influence Information Processing Strategies: Declarative and Experiential Information in Risk Assessment , 1999 .

[1044]  P. Tetlock.  Losing Our Religion: On the Precariousness of Precise Normative Standards in Complex Accountability Systems , 1998 .

[1045]  Robert Sugden,et al.  Testing for juxtaposition and event-splitting effects , 1993 .

[1046]  Herbert H. Clark,et al.  On the process of comparing sentences against pictures , 1972 .

[1047]  L. Ross.  The Intuitive Psychologist And His Shortcomings: Distortions in the Attribution Process1 , 1977 .

[1048]  C. Carver,et al.  On the Self-Regulation of Behavior , 1998 .

[1049]  Josef Lakonishok,et al.  Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk , 1993 .

[1050]  A. Appadurai.  gastro‐politics in Hindu South Asia , 1981 .

[1051]  W. A. Wagenaar.  Generation of random sequences by human subjects: A critical survey of literature. , 1972 .

[1052]  T. Osberg,et al.  Self-Prediction: Exploring the Parameters of Accuracy , 1986 .

[1053]  G. Logan.  Toward an instance theory of automatization. , 1988 .

[1054]  Mark L. Johnson.  The body in the mind: the bodily basis of meaning , 1987 .

[1055]  Thomas K. Srull,et al.  The Effects of Subjective Affective States on Memory and Judgment , 1984 .

[1056]  A. Tesser,et al.  Task effort and the regulation of mood: The absorption hypothesis , 1992 .

[1057]  David E. Runkle,et al.  Are Financial Analysts' Forecasts of Corporate Profits Rational? , 1998, Journal of Political Economy.

[1058]  N. Epley,et al.  Putting Adjustment Back in the Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic: Differential Processing of Self-Generated and Experimenter-Provided Anchors , 2001, Psychological science.

[1059]  K. L. Hakmiller,et al.  Threat as a determinant of downward comparison , 1966 .

[1060]  K. Stanovich,et al.  Reasoning independently of prior belief and individual differences in actively open-minded thinking. , 1997 .

[1061]  Rodger W. Griffeth,et al.  Effects of Fear-Arousing Components of Driver Education on Students' Safety Attitudes and Simulator Performance. , 1976 .

[1062]  Y. Ganzach,et al.  Judging Risk and Return of Financial Assets. , 2000, Organizational behavior and human decision processes.

[1063]  K. Fiedler,et al.  Two halfs may be more than one whole : category-split effects on frequency illusions , 1994 .

[1064]  G. Bodenhausen.  Stereotypes as Judgmental Heuristics: Evidence of Circadian Variations in Discrimination , 1990 .

[1065]  R. T. Birge.  The general physical constants: As of august 1941 with details on the velocity of light only , 1941 .

[1066]  Jay J.J. Christensen-Szalanski,et al.  The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis , 1991 .

[1067]  R. Fazio,et al.  Variability in automatic activation as an unobtrusive measure of racial attitudes: a bona fide pipeline? , 1995, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[1068]  J. Baranski,et al.  The calibration and resolution of confidence in perceptual judgments , 1994, Perception & psychophysics.

[1069]  D. Bem.  Self-Perception Theory , 1972 .

[1070]  Allan Franklin,et al.  Millikan's Published and Unpublished Data on Oil Drops , 1981 .

[1071]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Measures of Anchoring in Estimation Tasks , 1995 .

[1072]  Jay J.J. Christensen-Szalanski,et al.  Physicians' use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting. , 1981 .

[1073]  A. Fallon,et al.  Family Resemblance in Attitudes to Foods , 1984 .

[1074]  Daniel Kahneman,et al.  Evaluation by Moments: Past and Future , 2002 .

[1075]  L. Festinger.  Conflict, Decision, and Dissonance , 1964 .

[1076]  C. Starr.  Social benefit versus technological risk. , 1969, Science.

[1077]  M. Bar-Hillel.  The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments. , 1980 .

[1078]  R. Hastie,et al.  Hindsight: Biased judgments of past events after the outcomes are known. , 1990 .

[1079]  G. Loewenstein,et al.  Explaining the Identifiable Victim Effect , 1997 .

[1080]  N. Schwarz,et al.  Mood and the impact of category membership and individuating information , 1996 .

[1081]  E. Higgins,et al.  Accessibility and Applicability: Some "Activation Rules" Influencing Judgment , 1995 .

[1082]  John W. Medcof,et al.  Peat: An Integrative Model of Attribution Processes , 1990 .

[1083]  G. Loewenstein,et al.  Egocentric Empathy Gaps between Owners and Buyers: Misperceptions of the Endowment Effect , 2000, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[1084]  Thomas E. Nygren,et al.  Influence of positive affect on the subjective utility of gains and losses: it is just not worth the risk. , 1988, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[1085]  Lewis R. Goldberg,et al.  Man versus model of man: A rationale, plus some evidence, for a method of improving on clinical inferences. , 1970 .

[1086]  J. March.  Bounded rationality, ambiguity, and the engineering of choice , 1978 .

[1087]  A. Tversky,et al.  Support theory: A nonextensional representation of subjective probability. , 1994 .

[1088]  J. Yesavage,et al.  Reliability, accuracy, and decision-making strategy in clinical predictions of imminent dangerousness. , 1983, Journal of consulting and clinical psychology.

[1089]  P. Slovic.  Perception of risk. , 1987, Science.

[1090]  Y. Ganzach,et al.  Overreaction and underreaction in analysts' forecasts , 1998 .

[1091]  Margaret C. Donaldson.  Children's Minds , 1978 .

[1092]  Philip E. Tetlock,et al.  Accountability and complexity of thought. , 1983 .

[1093]  P. Meehl.  Psychodiagnosis: Selected Papers , 1973 .

[1094]  U. Neisser.  The multiplicity of thought. , 1963, British journal of psychology.

[1095]  R. Cialdini,et al.  Self-Relevant Scenarios as Mediators of Likelihood Estimates and Compliance: Does Imagining Make It So? , 1982 .

[1096]  L. Curtin.  Going beyond enlightened self-interest. , 1995, Nursing management.

[1097]  Cass R. Sunstein,et al.  Shared Outrage and Erratic Awards: The Psychology of Punitive Damages , 1998 .

[1098]  Lawrence D. Phillips,et al.  Cultural Differences in Probabilistic Thinking , 1978 .

[1099]  Thomas Gilovich,et al.  Naive cynicism in everyday theories of responsibility assessment : On biased assumptions of bias , 1999 .

[1100]  D. Gentner,et al.  Respects for similarity , 1993 .

[1101]  I. Ajzen,et al.  Belief, Attitude, Intention, and Behavior: An Introduction to Theory and Research , 1977 .

[1102]  Philip E. Tetlock,et al.  Theory-Driven Reasoning About Plausible Pasts and Probable Futures in World Politics: Are We Prisoners of Our Preconceptions? , 1999 .

[1103]  B Fischhoff,et al.  Why (cancer) risk communication can be hard. , 1999, Journal of the National Cancer Institute. Monographs.

[1104]  L. Brenner,et al.  Should observed overconfidence be dismissed as a statistical artifact? Critique of Erev, Wallsten, and Budescu (1994) , 2000, Psychological review.

[1105]  F. Strack,et al.  Explaining the Enigmatic Anchoring Effect: Mechanisms of Selective Accessibility , 1997 .

[1106]  A. Tversky,et al.  Preference and belief: Ambiguity and competence in choice under uncertainty , 1991 .

[1107]  A. Kruglanski,et al.  The freezing and unfreezing of lay-inferences: Effects on impressional primacy, ethnic stereotyping, and numerical anchoring ☆ , 1983 .

[1108]  N. Feather.  Attribution of responsibility and valence of success and failure in relation to initial confidence and task performance. , 1969 .

[1109]  Y. Klar,et al.  No one in my group can be below the group's average: a robust positivity bias in favor of anonymous peers. , 1997, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[1110]  D. Gilbert.  How mental systems believe. , 1991 .

[1111]  Daniel Cervone,et al.  Sequence Anchoring and Self-Efficacy: Primacy Effects in the Consideration of Possibilities , 1989 .

[1112]  J Baron,et al.  Confirmation and Matching Biases in Hypothesis Testing , 1988, The Quarterly journal of experimental psychology. A, Human experimental psychology.

[1113]  Lola L. Lopes.  Doing the impossible: A note on induction and the experience of randomness. , 1982 .

[1114]  Mark P. Zanna,et al.  The Nonverbal Mediation of Self-Fulfilling Prophecies in Interracial Interaction. , 1974 .

[1115]  D. Schumacher.  The 1973 Oil Crisis and its Aftermath , 1985 .

[1116]  James Shanteau,et al.  When does a response error become a judgmental bias? Commentary on "Judged Frequency of Lethal Events". , 1978 .

[1117]  D. Krantz,et al.  The use of statistical heuristics in everyday inductive reasoning , 1983 .

[1118]  David C. Funder,et al.  On the Accuracy of Dispositional Versus Situational Attributions , 1982 .

[1119]  P. Slovic,et al.  Dominance of accuracy information and neglect of base rates in probability estimation , 1976 .

[1120]  Sok-Hyon Kang,et al.  Analysts' Interim Earnings Forecasts: Evidence on the Forecasting Process , 1994 .

[1121]  R. Thaler,et al.  Anomalies Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries , 1988 .

[1122]  David M. Grether,et al.  Testing Bayes Rule and the Representativeness Heuristic: Some Experimental Evidence , 1992 .

[1123]  V. A. Harris,et al.  The Attribution of Attitudes , 1967 .

[1124]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Knowing with Certainty: The Appropriateness of Extreme Confidence. , 1977 .

[1125]  Lisa D. Ordóñez,et al.  Decisions under Time Pressure: How Time Constraint Affects Risky Decision Making , 1997 .

[1126]  H. Wechsler,et al.  College Binge Drinking in the 1990s: A Continuing Problem Results of the Harvard School of Public Health 1999 College Alcohol Study , 2000, Journal of American college health : J of ACH.

[1127]  J. Kruger.  Lake Wobegon be gone! The "below-average effect" and the egocentric nature of comparative ability judgments. , 1999, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[1128]  L. Festinger,et al.  A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance , 2017 .

[1129]  G. Loewenstein.  Out of control: Visceral influences on behavior , 1996 .

[1130]  L. Krieger.  The Content of Our Categories: A Cognitive Bias Approach to Discrimination and Equal Employment Opportunity , 1995 .

[1131]  S. Rachman,et al.  Experimental analyses of panic--III. Claustrophobic subjects. , 1988, Behaviour research and therapy.

[1132]  Daniel McFadden,et al.  Rationality for Economists , 1999 .

[1133]  J. Madsen,et al.  Tests of rationality versus an “over optimist” bias , 1994 .

[1134]  A. Fallon,et al.  The Child's Conception of Food: The Development of Categories of Acceptable and Rejected Substances , 1986 .

[1135]  Leonard L. Martin,et al.  Assimilation and contrast as a function of people's willingness and ability to expend effort in forming an impression. , 1990 .

[1136]  Richard R. Lau,et al.  Attributions in the Sports Pages , 1980 .

[1137]  John B. Kidd,et al.  The utilization of subjective probabilities in production planning , 1970 .

[1138]  D. Frame,et al.  The Complete Essays of Montaigne , 1958 .

[1139]  W. Levelt,et al.  Speaking: From Intention to Articulation , 1990 .

[1140]  C. Heath,et al.  On the Social Psychology of Agency Relationships: Lay Theories of Motivation Overemphasize Extrinsic Incentives. , 1999, Organizational behavior and human decision processes.

[1141]  G. Loewenstein,et al.  Egocentric Interpretations of Fairness and Interpersonal Conflict , 1992 .

[1142]  Christopher K. Hsee,et al.  Risk as Feelings , 2001, Psychological bulletin.

[1143]  T. Schelling.  The Strategy of Conflict , 1963 .

[1144]  R. Thaler,et al.  Further Evidence On Investor Overreaction and Stock Market Seasonality , 1987 .

[1145]  P. Tetlock.  The Impact of Accountability on Judgment and Choice: Toward A Social Contingency Model , 1992 .

[1146]  P. Johnson-Laird.  Mental models , 1989 .

[1147]  R. Brian Haynes,et al.  Compliance in Health Care , 1979 .

[1148]  T. Wallsten.  Physician and Medical Student Bias in Evaluating Diagnostic Information , 1981, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[1149]  L. Rips.  The Psychology of Proof: Deductive Reasoning in Human Thinking , 1994 .

[1150]  Charles S. Carver,et al.  A Model of Behavioral Self-Regulation: Translating Intention into Action , 1988 .

[1151]  I. Simonson,et al.  THE INFLUENCE OF ANTICIPATING REGRET AND RESPONSIBILITY ON PURCHASE DECISIONS , 1992 .

[1152]  Mark Snyder,et al.  Actors, observers, and the attribution process: Toward a reconceptualization☆ , 1977 .

[1153]  F. Edmondson.  Velocity of Light , 1934, Nature.

[1154]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980 , 1982 .

[1155]  Paul J. H. Schoemaker,et al.  Thinking about the future: A cognitive perspective , 1993 .

[1156]  Robert W. Rutledge,et al.  The effects of group decisions and group-shifts on use of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic , 1993 .

[1157]  Christopher G. Davis,et al.  Positive and Negative Life Changes Following Bereavement and their Relations to Adjustment , 1993 .

[1158]  H. Simon,et al.  Models of Bounded Rationality: Empirically Grounded Economic Reason , 1997 .

[1159]  M. Banaji,et al.  Implicit social cognition: attitudes, self-esteem, and stereotypes. , 1995, Psychological review.

[1160]  M. Fordyce,et al.  A review of research on the happiness measures: A sixty second index of happiness and mental health , 1988 .

[1161]  M. Hermann,et al.  Are Bayesian decisions artificially intelligent? The effect of task and personality on conservatism in processing information. , 1971, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[1162]  R. Sugden,et al.  Some implications of a more general form of regret theory , 1987 .

[1163]  K. Stanovich,et al.  The domain specificity and generality of belief bias: Searching for a generalizable critical thinking skill. , 1999 .

[1164]  K. Holyoak,et al.  On the natural selection of reasoning theories , 1989, Cognition.

[1165]  R. Nickerson.  Hempel's Paradox and Wason's Selection Task: Logical and Psychological Puzzles of Confirmation , 1996 .

[1166]  J. Keynes.  A Treatise on Probability. , 1923 .

[1167]  K. Fiedler.  The dependence of the conjunction fallacy on subtle linguistic factors , 1988 .

[1168]  Derek J. Koehler,et al.  Explanation, imagination, and confidence in judgment. , 1991, Psychological bulletin.

[1169]  E. Niedermeyer,et al.  The electroencephalogram in children with minimal cerebral dysfunction. , 1968, Pediatrics.

[1170]  Baruch Nevo.  Scientific aspects of graphology : a handbook , 1986 .

[1171]  P. Rozin,et al.  The Sympathetic Magical Law of Similarity, Nominal Realism and Neglect of Negatives in Response to Negative Labels , 1990 .

[1172]  Dale T. Miller,et al.  Counterfactual Thinking and Victim Compensation , 1986 .

[1173]  R. LaPiere.  Attitudes vs Actions. 1934. , 1934, International journal of epidemiology.

[1174]  Willard T. Carleton,et al.  Optimism Biases Among Brokerage and Non-Brokerage Firms' Equity Recommendations: Agency Costs in the Investment Industry , 1998 .

[1175]  Joachim I. Krueger,et al.  Perceptions of Behavioral Consistency: Are People Aware of the Actor-Observer Effect? , 1996 .

[1176]  R. Dawes.  Statistical criteria for establishing a truly false consensus effect , 1989 .

[1177]  L. Tucker.  A SUGGESTED ALTERNATIVE FORMULATION IN THE DEVELOPMENTS BY HURSCH, HAMMOND, AND HURSCH, AND BY HAMMOND, HURSCH, AND TODD. , 1964, Psychological review.

[1178]  Leila T. Worth,et al.  Processing deficits and the mediation of positive affect in persuasion. , 1989, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[1179]  M. R. Leippe,et al.  The Psychology of Attitude Change and Social Influence , 1991 .

[1180]  B Fischhoff,et al.  Evaluating the Effectiveness of Risk‐Reduction Strategies for Consumer Chemical Products , 2001, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[1181]  Richard S. Lazarus,et al.  Anticipatory stress and coping reactions under various conditions of uncertainty. , 1972, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[1182]  Richard E. Petty,et al.  Elastic Shifts of Opinion: Determinants of Direction and Durability , 1976 .

[1183]  G. Wells,et al.  What do we know about eyewitness identification? , 1993, The American psychologist.

[1184]  A. Tversky,et al.  Affect, Generalization, and the Perception of Risk. , 1983 .

[1185]  C. R. Snyder,et al.  Social Cognitive Psychology: History and Current Domains , 1997 .

[1186]  Nick Chater,et al.  A rational analysis of the selection task as optimal data selection. , 1994 .

[1187]  Kazuhisa Takemura,et al.  Influence of Elaboration on the Framing of Decision , 1994 .

[1188]  L. Ross,et al.  The “false consensus effect”: An egocentric bias in social perception and attribution processes , 1977 .

[1189]  J. L. Powell.  A Test of the Knew-It-All-Along Effect in the 1984 Presidential and Statewide Elections1 , 1988 .

[1190]  D. Kahneman.  Who shall be the arbiter of our intuitions? , 1981, Behavioral and Brain Sciences.

[1191]  R D Zentner,et al.  Scenarios, past, present and future. , 1982, Long range planning.

[1192]  L. Myaskovsky,et al.  The Easy Path From Many To Much: the Numerosity Heuristic , 1994, Cognitive Psychology.

[1193]  R. Dawes,et al.  House of Cards: Psychology and Psychotherapy Built on Myth. , 1995 .

[1194]  D. Levine,et al.  A neuropsychological theory of positive affect and its influence on cognition. , 1999, Psychological review.

[1195]  Michael Katz,et al.  Reactive Devaluation of an “Israeli” vs. “Palestinian” Peace Proposal , 2002 .

[1196]  Paul T. P. Wong,et al.  When people ask "why" questions, and the heuristics of attributional search. , 1981 .

[1197]  C. Anderson.  Imagination and expectation: The effect of imagining behavioral scripts on personal influences. , 1983 .

[1198]  Daniel M. Wegner,et al.  Incrimination through innuendo: Can media questions become public answers? , 1981 .

[1199]  A. Beck,et al.  An inventory for measuring depression. , 1961, Archives of general psychiatry.

[1200]  J. M. Nuttin.  Affective consequences of mere ownership: The name letter effect in twelve European languages , 1987 .

[1201]  A. Tversky,et al.  Unpacking, repacking, and anchoring: advances in support theory. , 1997 .

[1202]  P. Tetlock,et al.  Taboo Trade‐offs: Reactions to Transactions That Transgress the Spheres of Justice , 1997 .

[1203]  T. O. Nelson,et al.  A comparison of three predictors of an individual's memory performance: the individual's feeling of knowing versus the normative feeling of knowing versus base-rate item difficulty. , 1986, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[1204]  R. Goldsmith.  Assessing probabilities of compound events in a judicial context , 1978 .

[1205]  A. Isen,et al.  Positive affect, cognitive processes, and social behavior. , 1987 .

[1206]  E. Evans-Pritchard,et al.  Witchcraft, Oracles and Magic among the Azande , 1937 .

[1207]  H. Wimmer,et al.  Three-year-olds' difficulty with false belief: The case for a conceptual deficit , 1987 .

[1208]  R. Zajonc.  Feeling and thinking : Preferences need no inferences , 1980 .

[1209]  K. R. Hammond,et al.  COGNITIVE DEPENDENCE ON LINEAR AND NONLINEAR CUES. , 1965, Psychological review.

[1210]  R. Reisenzein,et al.  Effects of Mood on Evaluative Judgements: Influence of Reduced Processing Capacity and Mood Salience , 1998 .

[1211]  R. A. Wicklund.  Freedom and reactance , 1974 .

[1212]  David E. Rumelhart,et al.  Toward a microstructural account of human reasoning , 1989 .

[1213]  A. Tversky,et al.  Conflict Resolution: A Cognitive Perspective , 2000 .

[1214]  D. Gilbert.  Speeding with Ned: A personal view of the correspondence bias. , 1998 .

[1215]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Informed Consent for Eliciting Environmental Values , 2000 .

[1216]  Craig R. Fox,et al.  Ambiguity Aversion and Comparative Ignorance , 1995 .

[1217]  Janet A. Sniezek,et al.  Judgment processes in motivation: Anchoring and adjustment effects on judgment and behavior. , 1991 .

[1218]  J. Bargh.  The automaticity of everyday life. , 1997 .

[1219]  P. Tetlock,et al.  Accounting for the effects of accountability. , 1999, Psychological bulletin.

[1220]  David H. Krantz,et al.  Inductive reasoning: Competence or skill? , 1983, Behavioral and Brain Sciences.

[1221]  R. T. Birge,et al.  Probable Values of the General Physical Constants , 1929 .

[1222]  K. Cross.  Not can, but will college teaching be improved? , 1977 .

[1223]  R. Zajonc,et al.  Facial efference and the experience of emotion. , 1989, Annual review of psychology.

[1224]  Martin E. P. Seligman,et al.  Generality of learned helplessness in man. , 1975 .

[1225]  A. Tversky,et al.  Variants of uncertainty , 1982, Cognition.

[1226]  Philip B. Gough,et al.  Grammatical transformations and speed of understanding , 1965 .

[1227]  D. Katz.  THE FUNCTIONAL APPROACH TO THE STUDY OF ATTITUDES , 1960 .

[1228]  V. Schoenbach,et al.  Appraising health risk appraisal. , 1987, American journal of public health.

[1229]  Carl-Axel S. Staël von Holstein,et al.  Exceptional Paper---Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis , 1975 .

[1230]  W. Mcglothlin.  Stability of choices among uncertain alternatives. , 1956, The American journal of psychology.

[1231]  Kenneth R. Hammond,et al.  Human Judgment and Social Policy: Irreducible Uncertainty, Inevitable Error, Unavoidable Injustice , 2000 .

[1232]  D. Wegner,et al.  On being cool and collected: Mood regulation in anticipation of social interaction. , 1996 .

[1233]  Nathan Brody,et al.  Intelligence, schooling, and society. , 1997 .

[1234]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  On the Psychology of Experimental Surprises. , 1977 .

[1235]  Colin Camerer.  Judgment and decision making, J. Frank Yates. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, Prentice-Hall inc. 1990 , 1991 .

[1236]  Paul Slovic,et al.  Imagery, Affect, and Financial Judgment , 2000 .

[1237]  H. Arkes,et al.  The Psychology of Sunk Cost , 1985 .

[1238]  John P. Robinson,et al.  CHAPTER 3 – Measures of Subjective Well-Being , 1991 .

[1239]  D. Berkeley,et al.  Structuring decision problems and the ‘bias heuristic’ , 1982 .

[1240]  H. H. Clark.  Responding to indirect speech acts , 1979, Cognitive Psychology.

[1241]  G. Loomes.  Further Evidence of the Impact of Regret and Disappointment in Choice under Uncertainty , 1988 .

[1242]  David H. Krantz,et al.  The psychology of moderate prediction : I. Experience with multiple determination , 1990 .

[1243]  Denis J. Hilton,et al.  Conversational Implicature, Conscious Representation, and the Conjunction Fallacy , 1991 .

[1244]  W. Kip Viscusi,et al.  Smoking: Making the Risky Decision , 1992 .

[1245]  A. Tversky,et al.  The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. , 1981, Science.

[1246]  D. Medin,et al.  Decision making from a cognitive perspective , 1995 .

[1247]  C. Mckenzie.  Taking into account the strength of an alternative hypothesis. , 1998 .

[1248]  W. R. Garner.  Good patterns have few alternatives. , 1970, American scientist.

[1249]  T. W. Ross,et al.  Alternative Institutions for Resolving Coordination Problems: Experimental Evidence on Forward Induction and Preplaycommunication , 1994 .

[1250]  Susan R. Fussell,et al.  Perspective-Taking in Communication: Representations of Others' Knowledge in Reference , 1991 .

[1251]  N. Kerr,et al.  Mood effects on cooperation in small groups: Does positive mood simply lead to more cooperation? , 2000 .

[1252]  C. Hallenbeck,et al.  Forecasting Precipitation in Percentages of Probability. , 1920 .

[1253]  Christopher K. Hsee,et al.  Money, Kisses, and Electric Shocks: On the Affective Psychology of Risk , 2001, Psychological science.

[1254]  D. Read,et al.  Predicting Hunger: The Effects of Appetite and Delay on Choice. , 1998, Organizational behavior and human decision processes.

[1255]  Fred Collopy,et al.  The role and validity of judgment in forecasting , 1996 .

[1256]  B. Keysar.  Common sense and adult theory of communication , 1993, Behavioral and Brain Sciences.

[1257]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Communicate unto others , 1998 .

[1258]  P. Johnson-Laird,et al.  A theoretical analysis of insight into a reasoning task , 1970 .

[1259]  Shawn P. Curley,et al.  Probability judgment accuracy for general knowledge. Cross‐national differences and assessment methods , 1995 .

[1260]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Characterizing Mental Models of Hazardous Processes: A Methodology and an Application to Radon , 1992 .

[1261]  Robert S. Lockhart,et al.  Distributional versus singular approaches to probability and errors in probabilistic reasoning , 1993 .

[1262]  Shelley E. Taylor.  Adjustment to threatening events: A theory of cognitive adaptation. , 1983 .

[1263]  A. Cooper,et al.  Determinants of satisfaction for entrepreneurs , 1995 .

[1264]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Anchoring, Activation, and the Construction of Values. , 1999, Organizational behavior and human decision processes.

[1265]  J. Kagan,et al.  Rational choice in an uncertain world , 1988 .

[1266]  David M. Messick,et al.  Social Decision Heuristics in the Use of Shared Resources , 1990 .

[1267]  John Jonides,et al.  Estimating frequency of occurrence. , 1987 .

[1268]  B. Slugoski,et al.  Contribution of conversation skills to the production of judgmental errors , 1998 .

[1269]  Ilana Ritov,et al.  Economic Preferences or Attitude Expressions?: An Analysis of Dollar Responses to Public Issues , 1999 .

[1270]  Willis F. Overton,et al.  Reasoning about certainty and uncertainty in concrete, causal, and propositional contexts. , 1986 .

[1271]  R. Larsen,et al.  The Satisfaction with Life Scale , 1985, Journal of personality assessment.

[1272]  Howard Kunreuther,et al.  The Affection Effect in Insurance Decisions , 2006 .

[1273]  Muzafer Sherif,et al.  Attitude and Attitude Change: The Social Judgment-Involvement Approach , 1982 .

[1274]  E. B. Tylor,et al.  Primitive Culture: Researches Into the Development of Mythology, Philosophy, Religion, Art, and Custom , 1974 .

[1275]  P Slovic,et al.  Perceived risk, stigma, and potential economic impacts of a high-level nuclear waste repository in Nevada. , 1991, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[1276]  M Bobbio,et al.  Clinical Assessment of the Probability of Coronary Artery Disease , 1992, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[1277]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Reasons for confidence. , 1980 .

[1278]  S. Schneider.  Item Difficulty, Discrimination, and the Confidence-Frequency Effect in a Categorical Judgment Task , 1995 .

[1279]  J. Henslin,et al.  Craps and Magic , 1967, American Journal of Sociology.

[1280]  L. A. Zadeh,et al.  A note on prototype theory and fuzzy sets , 1982, Cognition.

[1281]  Ilan Yaniv,et al.  A case study of expert judgment: Economists' probabilities versus base-rate model forecasts , 1992 .

[1282]  A. Fallon,et al.  A perspective on disgust. , 1987, Psychological review.

[1283]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  What Risks Are People Concerned About , 1991 .

[1284]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Patients' memories of painful medical treatments: real-time and retrospective evaluations of two minimally invasive procedures , 1996, Pain.

[1285]  E. Rosch,et al.  Categorization of Natural Objects , 1981 .

[1286]  James L. McClelland,et al.  Distributed memory and the representation of general and specific information. , 1985, Journal of experimental psychology. General.

[1287]  N. Schwarz,et al.  Attribution of Arousal as a Mediator of the Effectiveness of Fear‐Arousing Communications1 , 1985 .

[1288]  Timothy D. Wilson,et al.  Introspection, Attitude Change, and Attitude-Behavior Consistency: the Disruptive Effects of Explaining Why we Feel the Way we Do , 1989 .

[1289]  Thomas R. Stewart,et al.  Seven components of judgmental forecasting skill: Implications for research and the improvement of forecasts , 1994 .

[1290]  P. Fitts,et al.  S-R compatibility: spatial characteristics of stimulus and response codes. , 1953, Journal of experimental psychology.

[1291]  K. Markman,et al.  The Mental Simulation of Better and Worse Possible Worlds , 1993 .

[1292]  Gary L. Brase,et al.  Individuation, counting, and statistical inference: The role of frequency and whole-object representations in judgment under uncertainty , 1998 .

[1293]  I. Ajzen,et al.  Prediction of goal directed behaviour: Attitudes, intentions and perceived behavioural control , 1986 .

[1294]  N. Schwarz.  Self-reports: How the questions shape the answers. , 1999 .

[1295]  Michael J. Saks,et al.  Human Information Processing and Adjudication: Trial by Heuristics , 1980 .

[1296]  Derek J. Koehler,et al.  Hypothesis generation and confidence in judgment , 1994 .

[1297]  P. Slovic,et al.  Relative importance of probabilities and payoffs in risk taking , 1968 .

[1298]  Shelley E. Taylor,et al.  Situated Optimism: Specific Outcome Expectancies and Self-Regulation , 1998 .

[1299]  E. Cook,et al.  Relationship between cancer patients' predictions of prognosis and their treatment preferences. , 1998, JAMA.

[1300]  C. Patrick,et al.  Emotion and psychopathy: startling new insights. , 1994, Psychophysiology.

[1301]  Ranald R. Macdonald,et al.  More about linda or conjunctions in context , 1990 .

[1302]  Eunkook M. Suh,et al.  Events and subjective well-being: Only recent events matter. , 1996 .

[1303]  R. Zeckhauser,et al.  Earnings Management to Exceed Thresholds , 1999 .

[1304]  D. McGregor,et al.  The major determinants of the prediction of social events. , 1938 .

[1305]  T. Osberg,et al.  The Relative Accuracy of Self-Predictions and Judgments by Others in Psychological Assessment , 1981 .

[1306]  N. Rigotti,et al.  Initial symptoms of nicotine dependence in adolescents , 2000, Tobacco control.

[1307]  J. Yates.  Risk-taking behavior , 1992 .

[1308]  Joel Brockner,et al.  Face-Saving and Entrapment , 1981 .

[1309]  P. Tetlock,et al.  Accountability: a social magnifier of the dilution effect. , 1989, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[1310]  A. Kruglanski,et al.  Motivated closing of the mind: "seizing" and "freezing". , 1996, Psychological review.

[1311]  A. H. Rosenfeld,et al.  The Particle Data Group: Growth and Operations-Eighteen Years of Particle Physics , 1975 .

[1312]  Craig A. Anderson,et al.  Abstract and concrete data in the perseverance of social theories: When weak data lead to unshakeable beliefs☆ , 1983 .

[1313]  T. Modis,et al.  Experts in uncertainty , 1993 .

[1314]  C. Izard.  Facial expressions and the regulation of emotions. , 1990, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[1315]  J. Kruger,et al.  Unskilled and unaware of it: how difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. , 1999, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[1316]  P. Salovey,et al.  Perceived distributions of the characteristics of in-group and out-group members: empirical evidence and a computer simulation. , 1989, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[1317]  Daniel T. Gilbert,et al.  Thinking backward: some curable and incurable consequences of cognitive busyness , 1989 .

[1318]  M. Björkman.  Internal Cue Theory: Calibration and Resolution of Confidence in General Knowledge , 1994 .

[1319]  D. Meichenbaum,et al.  Training impulsive children to talk to themselves: a means of developing self-control. , 1971, Journal of abnormal psychology.

[1320]  Kimihiko Yamagishi.  When a 12.86% Mortality is More Dangerous than 24.14%: Implications for Risk Communication , 1997 .

[1321]  S. Gould.  Bully for brontosaurus : reflections in natural history , 1991 .

[1322]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Strategies of information search in causal analysis , 1982 .

[1323]  Eugene Borgida,et al.  The Differential Impact of Abstract vs. Concrete Information on Decisions , 1977 .

[1324]  R. Hogarth,et al.  Unit weighting schemes for decision making , 1975 .

[1325]  Elizabeth F Loftus,et al.  Leading questions and the eyewitness report , 1975, Cognitive Psychology.

[1326]  R. Murphy.  The Effects of Task Characteristics on Covariation Assessment: The Impact of Accountability and Judgment Frame , 1994 .

[1327]  F. L. Wilson,et al.  The Fundamental Constants and Quantum Electrodynamics , 1971 .

[1328]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Correlations, Causes and Heuristics in Surveys of Life Satisfaction , 1991 .

[1329]  G. Clore,et al.  Mood-Related Persuasion Depends on (Mis)Attributions , 1994 .

[1330]  Mary E. Barth,et al.  Market rewards associated with patterns of increasing earnings , 1999 .

[1331]  C. R. Snyder,et al.  Acceptance of personality interpretations: the "Barnum Effect" and beyond. , 1977, Journal of consulting and clinical psychology.

[1332]  F. Strack,et al.  The Role of Bodily Sensations in the Evaluation of Social Events , 1992 .

[1333]  Glenn Shafer,et al.  Languages and Designs for Probability Judgment , 1985, Cogn. Sci..

[1334]  R. Buehler,et al.  Intensity Bias in Affective Forecasting: The Role of Temporal Focus , 2001 .

[1335]  H. Kelley.  Attribution theory in social psychology , 1967 .

[1336]  L. Ross,et al.  Self-knowledge and social inference: I. The impact of cognitive/affective and behavioral data. , 1984 .

[1337]  R. C. Silver,et al.  Coming to terms with major negative life events. , 1989 .

[1338]  P. Gollwitzer.  Goal Achievement: The Role of Intentions , 1993 .

[1339]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias , 1991 .

[1340]  A. Tversky.  Features of Similarity , 1977 .

[1341]  A. Franklin.  Forging, cooking, trimming, and riding on the bandwagon , 1984 .

[1342]  D. Krull,et al.  Does the Grist Change the Mill? The Effect of the Perceiver's Inferential Goal on the Process of Social Inference , 1993 .

[1343]  S. B. Filskov,et al.  Clinical-actuarial detection and description of brain impairment with the W-B form I. , 1981, Journal of clinical psychology.

[1344]  Raanan Lipshitz,et al.  KNOWING AND PRACTICING: TEACHING BEHAVIOURAL SCIENCES AT THE ISRAEL DEFENCE FORCES COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLLEGE , 1983 .

[1345]  N. Schwarz,et al.  Thinking About Answers: The Application of Cognitive Processes to Survey Methodology , 1995, Quality of Life Research.

[1346]  John B. Pryor,et al.  The cognitive dynamics of salience in the attribution process. , 1977 .

[1347]  R. Elliott,et al.  Heart rate and skin conductance in anticipation of shocks with varying probability of occurrence. , 1974, Psychophysiology.

[1348]  W. Lippmann.  The Phantom Public , 1925 .

[1349]  Barry M. Staw,et al.  Commitment in an experimenting society: A study of the attribution of leadership from administrative scenarios. , 1980 .

[1350]  D. L. Hintzman.  Repetition and Memory1 , 1976 .

[1351]  Lyle Brenner,et al.  Focus, repacking, and the judgment of grouped hypotheses , 1999 .

[1352]  R. Wyer,et al.  Social cognition and social reality: Information acquisition and use in the laboratory and the real world , 1987 .

[1353]  R. Buehler,et al.  Exploring the "planning fallacy": Why people underestimate their task completion times. , 1994 .

[1354]  David V. Budescu,et al.  Encoding subjective probabilities: A psychological and psychometric review , 1983 .

[1355]  M. Bond,et al.  Do Chinese Self-Enhance or Self-Efface? It's a Matter of Domain , 1998 .

[1356]  Duane T. Wegener,et al.  The Flexible Correction Model: The Role of Naive Theories of Bias in Bias Correction , 1997 .

[1357]  D. L. Hintzman,et al.  Differential forgetting of prototypes and old instances: Simulation by an exemplar-based classification model , 1980, Memory & cognition.

[1358]  S. Rachman.  The overprediction of fear: a review. , 1994, Behaviour research and therapy.

[1359]  John T. Cacioppo,et al.  The Influence of Motor Processes on Attitudes Toward Novel Versus Familiar Semantic Stimuli , 1996 .

[1360]  D. Share,et al.  Contamination Sensitivity in Young Children , 1990 .

[1361]  Edward E. Smith,et al.  Category-Based Induction , 1990 .

[1362]  D. Schkade,et al.  Expectation-outcome consistency and hindsight bias , 1991 .

[1363]  Paul Rozin,et al.  Operation of the laws of sympathetic magic in disgust and other domains. , 1986 .

[1364]  Norbert Schwarz,et al.  Constructing Perceptions of Vulnerability: Personal Relevance and the Use of Experiential Information in Health Judgments , 1998 .

[1365]  P. Rozin,et al.  Individual Differences in Disgust Sensitivity: Comparisons and Evaluations of Paper-and-Pencil versus Behavioral Measures , 1999 .

[1366]  R. M. Griffith,et al.  Odds adjustments by American horse-race bettors. , 1949, The American journal of psychology.

[1367]  Gordon H. Bower,et al.  Failure to replicate mood-dependent retrieval , 1985 .

[1368]  Edward E. Smith,et al.  Gradedness and conceptual combination , 1982, Cognition.

[1369]  H. Simon,et al.  Dynamic Programming Under Uncertainty with a Quadratic Criterion Function , 1956 .

[1370]  L. L. Martin,et al.  Set/reset: use and disuse of concepts in impression formation. , 1986, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[1371]  Dale T. Miller,et al.  Counterfactual thinking and social perception : thinking about what might have been , 1990 .

[1372]  H. J. Einhorn,et al.  Expression theory and the preference reversal phenomena. , 1987 .

[1373]  James Shanteau,et al.  Decision Making by Experts: The GNAHM Effect , 1999 .

[1374]  R. Falk.  A closer look at the probabilities of the notorious three prisoners , 1992, Cognition.

[1375]  R. D. Hansen,et al.  The power of consensus: Information derived from one's own and others' behavior. , 1977 .

[1376]  Piotr Winkielman,et al.  Subliminal affective priming resists attributional interventions. , 1997 .

[1377]  J. Ouellette,et al.  Abandoning Unrealistic Optimism: Performance Estimates and the Temporal Proximity of Self-Relevant Feedback , 1996 .

[1378]  P. Rozin,et al.  Now you see it, now you don't: The preschool child's conception of invisible particles in the context of dissolving. , 1993 .

[1379]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Behavioral Decision Theory , 1977 .

[1380]  G Gigerenzer,et al.  Reasoning the fast and frugal way: models of bounded rationality. , 1996, Psychological review.

[1381]  Gerd Gigerenzer,et al.  Presentation and content: The use of base rates as a continuous variable. , 1988 .

[1382]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Scope (in)sensitivity in elicited valuations , 1998 .

[1383]  Didier Dubois,et al.  Modelling uncertainty and inductive inference: A survey of recent non-additive probability systems , 1988 .

[1384]  G. Brier.  VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY , 1950 .

[1385]  George A. Quattrone.  Overattribution and unit formation: When behavior engulfs the person. , 1982 .

[1386]  Daniel G Bobrow,et al.  On data-limited and resource-limited processes , 1975, Cognitive Psychology.

[1387]  Wendy Grace Lehnert,et al.  The Process of Question Answering , 2022 .

[1388]  A. Tversky,et al.  A Belief-Based Account of Decision Under Uncertainty , 1998 .

[1389]  A. Wax,et al.  Discrimination as Accident , 1998 .

[1390]  Patrick S. Malone,et al.  Unbelieving the Unbelievable: Some problems in the rejection of false information , 1990 .