Challenges in evaluating budget support and how to solve them

While there are well-tested methods for evaluating projects, it is much more difficult to evaluate budget support with the same rigour. This article outlines the challenges of evaluating budget support. In addition to applying a rigorous counterfactual for assessing impact, we argue that there are three other challenges, mainly caused by the ambiguities in the theory and practice of budget support. We then present a typology of different approaches for evaluating budget support based on two dichotomies: ‘qualitative versus quantitative’ and ‘country case study versus cross-country research’. Discussing the strengths and weaknesses of each, we show that an eclectic combination of the different methods can successfully solve the challenges.

[1]  A. T. J. Montemiranda,et al.  Poor economics. A radical rethinking of the way to fight global poverty , 2011 .

[2]  R. Hayman.  Budget Support and Democracy: a twist in the conditionality tale , 2011 .

[3]  E. Strobl,et al.  Aid, Policy and Growth: Does Aid Modality Matter? , 2008 .

[4]  W. Easterly,et al.  Can Foreign Aid Buy Growth , 2003 .

[5]  Does Foreign Aid Reduce Poverty?: Empirical Evidence from Nongovernmental and Bilateral Aid , 2005 .

[6]  C. Arndt,et al.  Aid and Growth: Have We Come Full Circle? , 2009 .

[7]  Chris Elbers,et al.  Assessing sector-wide programs with statistical impact evaluation: A methodological proposal , 2009 .

[8]  Jonathan R.W. Temple,et al.  Aid and Conditionality , 2010 .

[9]  Hristos Doucouliagos,et al.  Aid Effectiveness on Growth. A Meta Study , 2008 .

[10]  Giovanni Dell'Ariccia,et al.  Budget Support Versus Project Aid , 2003 .

[11]  Channing Arndt,et al.  Aid, Growth, and Development: Have We Come Full Circle? , 2010 .

[12]  F. Leeuw,et al.  Unpacking Black Boxes: Mechanisms and Theory Building in Evaluation , 2010 .

[13]  F. Tarp,et al.  Aid and Growth: What Meta-Analysis Reveals , 2013 .

[14]  G. Dijkstra.  Governance or Poverty Reduction? Assessing Budget Support in Nicaragua , 2013 .

[15]  A. Marr,et al.  Aid and the political economy of policy change , 1998 .

[16]  Pat Ricia,et al.  Using Programme Theory to Evaluate Complicated and Complex Aspects of Interventions , 2008 .

[17]  Nora Lustig,et al.  Poor Economics: A Radical Rethinking of the Way to Fight Global Poverty , 2012 .

[18]  Frans L. Leeuw,et al.  Linking theory-based evaluation and contribution analysis: Three problems and a few solutions , 2012 .

[19]  Frans L. Leeuw,et al.  Impact evaluations and development : NONIE guidance on impact evaluation , 2009 .

[20]  Ray Pawson,et al.  Evidence-based Policy: In Search of a Method , 2002 .

[21]  Burkina Faso.  Evaluation of General Budget Support: Synthesis Report , 2006 .

[22]  Arvind Subramanian,et al.  Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show? , 2005, The Review of Economics and Statistics.

[23]  H. White,et al.  A Contribution to Current Debates in Impact Evaluation , 2010 .

[24]  R. Greenhill,et al.  ‘The Aid Effectiveness Agenda: The benefits of going ahead’-A commentary on the final report , 2012 .

[25]  Joachim Blatter,et al.  Designing Case Studies , 2012 .

[26]  Paul Mosley,et al.  Aid-effectiveness: The Micro-Macro Paradox , 1986 .

[27]  N. Molenaers,et al.  Budget support and policy/political dialogue: donor practices in handling (political) crises , 2010 .

[28]  J. Svensson,et al.  What Explains the Success or Failure of Structural Adjustment Programs? , 1998 .

[29]  G. Dijkstra,et al.  Evaluation of General Budget Support to Nicaragua 2005-2008 , 2010 .

[30]  D. Dollar,et al.  Aid, Policies, and Growth , 1997 .

[31]  Eskander Alvi,et al.  DOES FOREIGN AID REDUCE POVERTY , 2012 .

[32]  Boriana Yontcheva,et al.  Does Foreign Aid Reduce Poverty?: Empirical Evidence from Nongovernmental and Bilateral Aid , 2005, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[33]  D. Booth,et al.  General budget support evaluability study phase 1: final synthesis report , 2002 .

[34]  Michael A. Clemens,et al.  Blunt Instruments: On Establishing the Causes of Economic Growth , 2009 .

[35]  Joachim Blatter,et al.  Designing case studies : explanatory approaches in small-n research , 2012 .

[36]  H. White,et al.  Programme Aid and Development: Beyond Conditionality , 2002 .

[37]  A. Acharya,et al.  Proliferation and fragmentation: Transactions costs and the value of aid , 2006 .