3-year risk prediction of Coronary Heart Disease in hypertension patients: A preliminary study

Hypertension is associated with increased morbidity and mortality in Coronary Heart Disease (CHD). However, the risk factors that cause hypertension patients develop into CHD remain unclear. This paper aims to study traditional and nontraditional risk factors of CHD in hypertension population. Data were extracted from the regional medical big data system of Shenzhen, a big city of China. In this study, we included 3395 hypertension patients aged from 30 to 79 years old. Among them, 1153 CHD events occurred within 3 years after they were first followed-up. A logistic regression model was used to evaluate the risk factors quantitatively and predict 3-year risk of CHD events. The results showed that traditional general-population-based CHD risk factors such as age, body mass index, diabetes, hyperlipemia, and chronic kidney disease still remained predictive in hypertension patients. In addition, the odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of CHD was 1.54 (1.19 to 2.01) for emotional or mental disorders, and 1.69 (1.21 to 2.34) for sleep disorders. And the model showed a good discriminative performance with an AUC of 0.839. It offered a new insight for hypertension patients that keeping psychological health and maintaining a good sleep quality could be helpful in preventing CHD. Given the high risk for CHD in patients with hypertension, control of these risk factors may have a substantial preventive effect on CHD.