Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems.

In marine ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO2 and climate change are associated with concurrent shifts in temperature, circulation, stratification, nutrient input, oxygen content, and ocean acidification, with potentially wide-ranging biological effects. Population-level shifts are occurring because of physiological intolerance to new environments, altered dispersal patterns, and changes in species interactions. Together with local climate-driven invasion and extinction, these processes result in altered community structure and diversity, including possible emergence of novel ecosystems. Impacts are particularly striking for the poles and the tropics, because of the sensitivity of polar ecosystems to sea-ice retreat and poleward species migrations as well as the sensitivity of coral-algal symbiosis to minor increases in temperature. Midlatitude upwelling systems, like the California Current, exhibit strong linkages between climate and species distributions, phenology, and demography. Aggregated effects may modify energy and material flows as well as biogeochemical cycles, eventually impacting the overall ecosystem functioning and services upon which people and societies depend.

[1]  S. Giovannoni,et al.  Annual review of marine science , 2013 .

[2]  D. Anderson,et al.  Progress in understanding harmful algal blooms: paradigm shifts and new technologies for research, monitoring, and management. , 2012, Annual review of marine science.

[3]  S. Lentz,et al.  The wind- and wave-driven inner-shelf circulation. , 2012, Annual review of marine science.

[4]  L. Levin,et al.  Understanding continental margin biodiversity: a new imperative. , 2012, Annual review of marine science.

[5]  G. Somero.  The physiology of global change: linking patterns to mechanisms. , 2012, Annual review of marine science.

[6]  F. Jorissen,et al.  Benthic foraminiferal biogeography: controls on global distribution patterns in deep-water settings. , 2012, Annual review of marine science.

[7]  J. Grebmeier,et al.  Shifting patterns of life in the Pacific Arctic and sub-Arctic seas. , 2012, Annual review of marine science.

[8]  E. Boss,et al.  Plankton and particle size and packaging: from determining optical properties to driving the biological pump. , 2012, Annual review of marine science.

[9]  C. Turley,et al.  Ocean acidification : a national strategy to meet the challenges of a changing ocean , 2010 .

[10]  N. Bond,et al.  Climate forcing and the California Current ecosystem , 2011 .

[11]  John P. Dunne,et al.  Projected expansion of the subtropical biome and contraction of the temperate and equatorial upwelling biomes in the North Pacific under global warming , 2011 .

[12]  Simon Jennings,et al.  Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes , 2011, Ecology letters.

[13]  O. Hoegh‐Guldberg,et al.  Revisiting climate thresholds and ecosystem collapse , 2011 .

[14]  Francisco P Chavez,et al.  Marine primary production in relation to climate variability and change. , 2011, Annual review of marine science.

[15]  S. Doney,et al.  Will ocean acidification affect marine microbes? , 2011, The ISME Journal.

[16]  Climate Stabilization Targets : Emissions , Concentrations , and Impacts over Decades to Millennia Committee on Stabilization Targets for Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations ; National Research Council , 2011 .

[17]  C. Duarte,et al.  Footprints of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem , 2011 .

[18]  Donald K. Perovich,et al.  Arctic Ocean warming contributes to reduced polar ice cap , 2010 .

[19]  A. Maccall,et al.  Estimating the impacts of fishing on dependent predators: a case study in the California Current. , 2010, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[20]  M. Silman,et al.  Changes in species interactions across a 2.5 km elevation gradient: effects on plant migration in response to climate change , 2010 .

[21]  J. Jackson.  The future of the oceans past , 2010, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[22]  R. Gates,et al.  The Effect of Ocean Acidification on Calcifying Organisms in Marine Ecosystems: An Organism to Ecosystem Perspective , 2010 .

[23]  Gerald G Singh,et al.  Meta-analysis reveals negative yet variable effects of ocean acidification on marine organisms. , 2010, Ecology letters.

[24]  B. Anderson,et al.  Central Pacific El Niño and decadal climate change in the North Pacific Ocean , 2010 .

[25]  John P. Dunne,et al.  Enhanced nutrient supply to the California Current Ecosystem with global warming and increased stratification in an earth system model , 2010 .

[26]  S. McClatchie,et al.  Oxygen in the Southern California Bight: Multidecadal trends and implications for demersal fisheries , 2010 .

[27]  S. Lucey,et al.  Shifting species assemblages in the Northeast US Continental Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem , 2010 .

[28]  S. Wijffels,et al.  Fifty-Year Trends in Global Ocean Salinities and Their Relationship to Broad-Scale Warming , 2010 .

[29]  Susan L. Williams,et al.  Ocean warming increases threat of invasive species in a marine fouling community. , 2010, Ecology.

[30]  B. Worm,et al.  Global phytoplankton decline over the past century , 2010, Nature.

[31]  Dolors Vaqué,et al.  Warming effects on marine microbial food web processes: how far can we go when it comes to predictions? , 2010, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[32]  Oscar Schofield,et al.  How Do Polar Marine Ecosystems Respond to Rapid Climate Change? , 2010, Science.

[33]  J. Bruno,et al.  The Impact of Climate Change on the World’s Marine Ecosystems , 2010, Science.

[34]  Scott C. Doney,et al.  The Growing Human Footprint on Coastal and Open-Ocean Biogeochemistry , 2010, Science.

[35]  A. Cuttitta,et al.  Effect of atmospheric CO2 and solar activity on wind regime and water column stability in the major global upwelling areas. , 2010 .

[36]  S. Moore,et al.  Biological Response to Recent Pacific Arctic Sea Ice Retreats , 2010 .

[37]  R. Berkelmans,et al.  Potential Costs of Acclimatization to a Warmer Climate: Growth of a Reef Coral with Heat Tolerant vs. Sensitive Symbiont Types , 2010, PloS one.

[38]  Y. Shin,et al.  The good(ish), the bad, and the ugly: a tripartite classification of ecosystem trends , 2010 .

[39]  J. Largier,et al.  Observations of increased wind‐driven coastal upwelling off central California , 2010 .

[40]  Scarla J. Weeks,et al.  Greenhouse gas, upwelling‐favorable winds, and the future of coastal ocean upwelling ecosystems , 2010 .

[41]  H. Pörtner,et al.  Oxygen- and capacity-limitation of thermal tolerance: a matrix for integrating climate-related stressor effects in marine ecosystems , 2010, Journal of Experimental Biology.

[42]  A. Lopez-Urrutia,et al.  Increasing importance of small phytoplankton in a warmer ocean , 2010 .

[43]  James D. Scott,et al.  Forecasting the dynamics of a coastal fishery species using a coupled climate--population model. , 2010, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[44]  Denis Gilbert,et al.  Dynamics and distribution of natural and human-caused hypoxia , 2010 .

[45]  K. Brander.  Impacts of climate change on fisheries , 2010 .

[46]  R. Mendelssohn,et al.  Climate change, teleconnection patterns, and regional processes forcing marine populations in the Pacific , 2010 .

[47]  Julienne C. Stroeve,et al.  The sea ice mass budget of the Arctic and its future change as simulated by coupled climate models , 2010 .

[48]  Francis Chan,et al.  Demersal fish and invertebrate biomass in relation to an offshore hypoxic zone along the US West Coast , 2010 .

[49]  Nicolas Gruber,et al.  Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world. , 2010, Annual review of marine science.

[50]  J. Geller,et al.  Genetic perspectives on marine biological invasions. , 2010, Annual review of marine science.

[51]  K. Lindsay,et al.  Biogeosciences Projected 21 st century decrease in marine productivity : a multi-model analysis , 2010 .

[52]  Scott C. Doney,et al.  Ocean Acidification: Present Conditions and Future Changes in a High-CO2 World , 2009 .

[53]  David M. Checkley,et al.  Patterns and processes in the California Current System , 2009 .

[54]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide , 2009 .

[55]  B. Bett,et al.  Climate, carbon cycling, and deep-ocean ecosystems , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[56]  Jason S. Link,et al.  Changing spatial distribution of fish stocks in relation to climate and population size on the Northeast United States continental shelf , 2009 .

[57]  Chris J. Harvey,et al.  Quantitative Evaluation of Marine Ecosystem Indicator Performance Using Food Web Models , 2009, Ecosystems.

[58]  E. Carmack,et al.  Smallest Algae Thrive As the Arctic Ocean Freshens , 2009, Science.

[59]  G. Sugihara,et al.  Climate‐driven changes in abundance and distribution of larvae of oceanic fishes in the southern California region , 2009 .

[60]  E. Davidson.  The contribution of manure and fertilizer nitrogen to atmospheric nitrous oxide since 1860 , 2009 .

[61]  J. Sarmiento,et al.  Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios , 2009 .

[62]  A. Miller,et al.  Coastal phytoplankton blooms in the Southern California Bight , 2009 .

[63]  M. Bertness,et al.  Experimental warming causes rapid loss of plant diversity in New England salt marshes. , 2009, Ecology letters.

[64]  M. Piehler,et al.  Warming and Resource Availability Shift Food Web Structure and Metabolism , 2009, PLoS biology.

[65]  R. Lukas,et al.  Physical and biogeochemical modulation of ocean acidification in the central North Pacific , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[66]  Frederick T. Short,et al.  Accelerating loss of seagrasses across the globe threatens coastal ecosystems , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[67]  Mark D. Ohman,et al.  Multi‐decadal shoaling of the euphotic zone in the southern sector of the California Current System , 2009 .

[68]  A. Cohen,et al.  Morphological and compositional changes in the skeletons of new coral recruits reared in acidified seawater: Insights into the biomineralization response to ocean acidification , 2009 .

[69]  S. Donner.  Coping with Commitment: Projected Thermal Stress on Coral Reefs under Different Future Scenarios , 2009, PloS one.

[70]  F. Joos,et al.  Imminent ocean acidification in the Arctic projected with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model , 2009 .

[71]  K. Aydin,et al.  A comparison of community and trophic structure in five marine ecosystems based on energy budgets and system metrics , 2009 .

[72]  Scott C. Doney,et al.  Ocean acidification: the other CO2 problem. , 2009, Annual review of marine science.

[73]  C. McClain.  A decade of satellite ocean color observations. , 2009, Annual review of marine science.

[74]  S. Doney,et al.  Contributions of long-term research and time-series observations to marine ecology and biogeochemistry. , 2009, Annual review of marine science.

[75]  S. Stammerjohn,et al.  Recent Changes in Phytoplankton Communities Associated with Rapid Regional Climate Change Along the Western Antarctic Peninsula , 2009, Science.

[76]  H. Schellnhuber,et al.  Oceanic acidification affects marine carbon pump and triggers extended marine oxygen holes , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[77]  K. Døving,et al.  Ocean acidification impairs olfactory discrimination and homing ability of a marine fish , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[78]  M. O’Connor.  Warming strengthens an herbivore-plant interaction. , 2009, Ecology.

[79]  D. Monson,et al.  Enumeration of Pacific walrus carcasses on beaches of the Chukchi Sea in Alaska following a mortality event, September 2009 , 2009 .

[80]  William J. Sydeman,et al.  SEABIRDS AND CLIMATE IN THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT—A SYNTHESIS OF CHANGE , 2009 .

[81]  J. Forester,et al.  Dynamic patterns and ecological impacts of declining ocean pH in a high-resolution multi-year dataset , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[82]  A. Cazenave,et al.  Present-day sea level rise: A synthesis , 2008 .

[83]  A. Farrell,et al.  Pacific Salmon in Hot Water: Applying Aerobic Scope Models and Biotelemetry to Predict the Success of Spawning Migrations , 2008, Physiological and Biochemical Zoology.

[84]  Kevin R. Arrigo,et al.  Impact of a shrinking Arctic ice cover on marine primary production , 2008 .

[85]  P. Spencer.  Density-independent and density-dependent factors affecting temporal changes in spatial distributions of eastern Bering Sea flatfish , 2008 .

[86]  Ryan M. Kroutil,et al.  Exploited species impacts on trophic linkages along reef-seagrass interfaces in the Florida Keys. , 2008, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[87]  R. Rosenberg,et al.  Spreading Dead Zones and Consequences for Marine Ecosystems , 2008, Science.

[88]  G. Vermeij,et al.  The Coming Arctic Invasion , 2008, Science.

[89]  A. Edwards,et al.  One-Third of Reef-Building Corals Face Elevated Extinction Risk from Climate Change and Local Impacts , 2008, Science.

[90]  Emma Ransome,et al.  Volcanic carbon dioxide vents show ecosystem effects of ocean acidification , 2008, Nature.

[91]  Sue E. Moore,et al.  Marine mammals as ecosystem sentinels , 2008 .

[92]  R. Kerr.  Hurricanes Won't Go Wild, According to Climate Models , 2008, Science.

[93]  J. Sprintall,et al.  Expanding Oxygen-Minimum Zones in the Tropical Oceans , 2008, Science.

[94]  Richard A. Feely,et al.  Impacts of ocean acidification on marine fauna and ecosystem processes , 2008 .

[95]  S. Jevrejeva,et al.  Recent global sea level acceleration started over 200 years ago? , 2008 .

[96]  S. Stammerjohn,et al.  Trends in Antarctic annual sea ice retreat and advance and their relation to El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode variability , 2008 .

[97]  S. Schreiber,et al.  Importance of Metapopulation Connectivity to Restocking and Restoration of Marine Species , 2008 .

[98]  J. Lubchenco,et al.  Emergence of Anoxia in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem , 2008, Science.

[99]  Carrie V. Kappel,et al.  A Global Map of Human Impact on Marine Ecosystems , 2008, Science.

[100]  R. Rykaczewski,et al.  Influence of ocean winds on the pelagic ecosystem in upwelling regions , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[101]  N. Knowlton,et al.  Shifting Baselines, Local Impacts, and Global Change on Coral Reefs , 2008, PLoS biology.

[102]  N. Oh,et al.  Anthropogenically enhanced fluxes of water and carbon from the Mississippi River , 2008, Nature.

[103]  F. Mueter,et al.  Sea ice retreat alters the biogeography of the Bering Sea continental shelf. , 2008, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[104]  C. Rogers,et al.  Bleaching increases likelihood of disease on Acropora palmata (Lamarck) in Hawksnest Bay, St John, US Virgin Islands , 2008, Coral Reefs.

[105]  R. Steneck,et al.  Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification , 2007, Science.

[106]  S. Levitus,et al.  Global ocean heat content 1955–2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems , 2007 .

[107]  W. Emery,et al.  A younger, thinner Arctic ice cover: Increased potential for rapid, extensive sea‐ice loss , 2007 .

[108]  Alan Hastings,et al.  The impact of ecosystem connectivity on coral reef resilience , 2007 .

[109]  S. Jackson,et al.  Novel climates, no‐analog communities, and ecological surprises , 2007 .

[110]  Howard J. Freeland,et al.  Persistently declining oxygen levels in the interior waters of the eastern subarctic Pacific , 2007 .

[111]  S. Batten,et al.  Effects on zooplankton of a warmer ocean: Recent evidence from the Northeast Pacific , 2007 .

[112]  P. C. Reid,et al.  A biological consequence of reducing Arctic ice cover: arrival of the Pacific diatom Neodenticula seminae in the North Atlantic for the first time in 800 000 years , 2007 .

[113]  M. Holland,et al.  Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast , 2007 .

[114]  Dan Tchernov,et al.  Scleractinian Coral Species Survive and Recover from Decalcification , 2007, Science.

[115]  Jarrett E. K. Byrnes,et al.  Invasions and Extinctions Reshape Coastal Marine Food Webs , 2007, PloS one.

[116]  S. Riser,et al.  Decadal Spinup of the South Pacific Subtropical Gyre , 2007 .

[117]  Rainer Knust,et al.  Climate Change Affects Marine Fishes Through the Oxygen Limitation of Thermal Tolerance , 2007, Science.

[118]  H. L. Miller,et al.  Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis , 2007 .

[119]  S. Solomon.  The Physical Science Basis : Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007 .

[120]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level , 2007 .

[121]  Maria Vernet,et al.  Marine pelagic ecosystems: the West Antarctic Peninsula , 2007, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[122]  David A. Siegel,et al.  Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity , 2006, Nature.

[123]  C. Parmesan.  Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change , 2006 .

[124]  Russell W. Bradley,et al.  Planktivorous auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus responses to ocean climate, 2005: Unusual atmospheric blocking? , 2006 .

[125]  J. Grebmeier,et al.  Ecosystem dynamics of the Pacific-influenced Northern Bering and Chukchi Seas in the Amerasian Arctic , 2006 .

[126]  Emanuele Di Lorenzo,et al.  Long-term forecast of oceanic conditions off California and their biological implications , 2006 .

[127]  P. Edmunds,et al.  Scleractinian corals as facilitators for other invertebrates on a Caribbean reef , 2006 .

[128]  Masayoshi Ishii,et al.  Steric sea level changes estimated from historical ocean subsurface temperature and salinity analyses , 2006 .

[129]  J. Kennedy,et al.  Improved Analyses of Changes and Uncertainties in Sea Surface Temperature Measured In Situ since the Mid-Nineteenth Century: The HadSST2 Dataset , 2006 .

[130]  M. Ohman,et al.  Planktonic Foraminifera of the California Current Reflect 20th-Century Warming , 2006, Science.

[131]  Denis Allemand,et al.  Impacts of ocean acidification on coral reefs and other marine calcifiers : a guide for future research , 2006 .

[132]  D. Richardson,et al.  Novel ecosystems: theoretical and management aspects of the new ecological world order , 2006 .

[133]  J. Castilla,et al.  Scales of benthic-pelagic coupling and the intensity of species interactions: from recruitment limitation to top-down control. , 2005, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[134]  S. Pennings,et al.  LINKING BIOGEOGRAPHY AND COMMUNITY ECOLOGY: LATITUDINAL VARIATION IN PLANT–HERBIVORE INTERACTION STRENGTH , 2005 .

[135]  J. Reynolds,et al.  Climate Change and Distribution Shifts in Marine Fishes , 2005, Science.

[136]  R. Evans,et al.  Bridging ocean color observations of the 1980s and 2000s in search of long-term trends , 2005 .

[137]  K. K. Goldewijk.  Three Centuries of Global Population Growth: A Spatial Referenced Population (Density) Database for 1700–2000 , 2005 .

[138]  James C. McWilliams,et al.  The Warming of the California Current System: Dynamics and Ecosystem Implications , 2005 .

[139]  S. Levitus,et al.  Linear trends in salinity for the World Ocean, 1955–1998 , 2005 .

[140]  Peter Rothery,et al.  Long-term decline in krill stock and increase in salps within the Southern Ocean , 2004, Nature.

[141]  R. Mendelssohn,et al.  Long-term and seasonal trends in stratification in the California Current, 1950--1993 , 2004 .

[142]  David S. Fox,et al.  Upwelling-driven nearshore hypoxia signals ecosystem and oceanographic changes in the northeast Pacific , 2004, Nature.

[143]  G. Jones,et al.  Coral decline threatens fish biodiversity in marine reserves. , 2004, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[144]  C. Philippart,et al.  Climate‐related changes in recruitment of the bivalve Macoma balthica , 2003 .

[145]  F. Schwing,et al.  A new climate regime in northeast pacific ecosystems , 2003 .

[146]  Sander,et al.  TROPHIC LEVELS ARE DIFFERENTIALLY SENSITIVE TO CLIMATE , 2003 .

[147]  A. Grant,et al.  Long-Term Region-Wide Declines in Caribbean Corals , 2003, Science.

[148]  Steven J. Bograd,et al.  The biological response to the 1977 regime shift in the California Current , 2003 .

[149]  Richard R. Veit,et al.  Ocean warming and seabird communities of the southern California Current System (1987–98): response at multiple temporal scales , 2003 .

[150]  M. Ohman,et al.  Long-term changes in pelagic tunicates of the California Current , 2003 .

[151]  N. Diffenbaugh,et al.  Future climate change and upwelling in the California Current , 2003 .

[152]  J. Bruno,et al.  Inclusion of facilitation into ecological theory , 2003 .

[153]  J. Stachowicz,et al.  Linking climate change and biological invasions: Ocean warming facilitates nonindigenous species invasions , 2002, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[154]  R. Wu,et al.  Hypoxia: from molecular responses to ecosystem responses. , 2002, Marine pollution bulletin.

[155]  R. Ostfeld,et al.  Climate Warming and Disease Risks for Terrestrial and Marine Biota , 2002, Science.

[156]  John E. Walsh,et al.  20th-century sea-ice variations from observational data , 2001, Annals of Glaciology.

[157]  Marjorie J. Wonham,et al.  Invasion of Coastal Marine Communities in North America: Apparent Patterns, Processes, and Biases , 2000 .

[158]  Peter J. Morin,et al.  Environmental warming alters food-web structure and ecosystem function , 1999, Nature.

[159]  J. Jouzel,et al.  Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica , 1999, Nature.

[160]  Sanford,et al.  Regulation of keystone predation by small changes in ocean temperature , 1999, Science.

[161]  D. Welch,et al.  Thermal limits and ocean migrations of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) : long-term consequences of global warming , 1998 .

[162]  M. Hay,et al.  Are Tropical Plants Better Defended? Palatability and Defenses of Temperate vs. Tropical Seaweeds , 1996 .

[163]  Peter Pyle,et al.  Ocean warming and long-term change in pelagic bird abundance within the California current system , 1996 .

[164]  S. Ford,et al.  Range extension by the oyster parasite Perkinsus marinus into the northeastern United States: response to climate change? , 1996 .

[165]  Dean Roemmich,et al.  Climatic Warming and the Decline of Zooplankton in the California Current , 1995, Science.

[166]  S. Gilman,et al.  Climate-Related, Long-Term Faunal Changes in a California Rocky Intertidal Community , 1995, Science.

[167]  Linda A. Deegan,et al.  Nutrient and energy transport between estuaries and coastal marine ecosystems by fish migration , 1993 .

[168]  W. Richard,et al.  TEMPERATURE AND PHYTOPLANKTON GROWTH IN THE SEA , 1972 .