Remote Sensing of Local Warming Trend in Alberta, Canada during 2001-2020, and Its Relationship with Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulations

Here, the objective was to study the local warming trend and its driving factors in the natural subregions of Alberta using a remote-sensing approach. We applied the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator on the day and nighttime MODIS LST time-series images to map and quantify the extent and magnitude of monthly and annual warming trends in the 21 natural subregions of Alberta. We also performed a correlation analysis of LST anomalies (both day and nighttime) of the subregions with the anomalies of the teleconnection patterns, i.e., Pacific North American (PNA), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), Arctic oscillation (AO), and sea surface temperature (SST, Niño 3.4 region) indices, to identify the relationship. May was the month that showed the most significant warming trends for both day and night during 2001–2020 in most of the subregions in the Rocky Mountains and Boreal Forest. Subregions of Grassland and Parkland in southern and southeastern parts of Alberta showed trends of cooling during daytime in July and August and a small magnitude of warming in June and August at night. We also found a significant cooling trend in November for both day and night. We identified from the correlation analysis that the PNA pattern had the most influence in the subregions during February to April and October to December for 2001–2020; however, none of the atmospheric oscillations showed any significant relationship with the significant warming/cooling months.

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