Inferring network properties based on the epidemic prevalence

Dynamical processes running on different networks behave differently, which makes the reconstruction of the underlying network from dynamical observations possible. However, to what level of detail the network properties can be determined from incomplete measurements of the dynamical process is still an open question. In this paper, we focus on the problem of inferring the properties of the underlying network from the dynamics of a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic and we assume that only a time series of the epidemic prevalence, i.e., the average fraction of infected nodes, is given. We find that some of the network metrics, namely those that are sensitive to the epidemic prevalence, can be roughly inferred if the network type is known. A simulated annealing link-rewiring algorithm, called SARA, is proposed to obtain an optimized network whose prevalence is close to the benchmark. The output of the algorithm is applied to classify the network types.

[1]  Santiago Segarra,et al.  Connecting the Dots: Identifying Network Structure via Graph Signal Processing , 2018, IEEE Signal Processing Magazine.

[2]  Sergey N. Dorogovtsev,et al.  Localization and Spreading of Diseases in Complex Networks , 2012, Physical review letters.

[3]  Hilde van der Togt,et al.  Publisher's Note , 2003, J. Netw. Comput. Appl..

[4]  Jure Leskovec,et al.  Inferring networks of diffusion and influence , 2010, KDD.

[5]  Jeffrey Shaman,et al.  Absolute humidity modulates influenza survival, transmission, and seasonality , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[6]  Ying-Cheng Lai,et al.  Universal data-based method for reconstructing complex networks with binary-state dynamics. , 2015, Physical review. E.

[7]  R. Pastor-Satorras,et al.  Analytic solution of a static scale-free network model , 2005 .

[8]  P. V. Mieghem,et al.  Performance Analysis of Complex Networks and Systems , 2014 .

[9]  Wen-Xu Wang,et al.  Efficient Reconstruction of Heterogeneous Networks from Time Series via Compressed Sensing , 2015, PloS one.

[10]  R. Durrett,et al.  Contact processes on random graphs with power law degree distributions have critical value 0 , 2009, 0912.1699.

[11]  Cécile Viboud,et al.  Absolute Humidity and the Seasonal Onset of Influenza in the Continental United States , 2010, PLoS biology.

[12]  Guanrong Chen,et al.  Compressive-Sensing-Based Structure Identification for Multilayer Networks , 2018, IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics.

[13]  P. Kaye Infectious diseases of humans: Dynamics and control , 1993 .

[14]  Wen-Xu Wang,et al.  Reconstructing propagation networks with natural diversity and identifying hidden sources , 2014, Nature Communications.

[15]  Piet Van Mieghem,et al.  Autocorrelation of the susceptible-infected-susceptible process on networks , 2018, Physical review. E.

[16]  Karl J. Friston,et al.  Bayesian Estimation of Dynamical Systems: An Application to fMRI , 2002, NeuroImage.

[17]  Xiao Han,et al.  Robust Reconstruction of Complex Networks from Sparse Data , 2015, Physical review letters.

[18]  Piet Van Mieghem,et al.  Epidemic processes in complex networks , 2014, ArXiv.

[19]  Marc Timme,et al.  Inferring network topology from complex dynamics , 2010, 1007.1640.

[20]  Tamer Basar,et al.  Analysis, Estimation, and Validation of Discrete-Time Epidemic Processes , 2020, IEEE Transactions on Control Systems Technology.

[21]  Dietmar Plenz,et al.  Efficient Network Reconstruction from Dynamical Cascades Identifies Small-World Topology of Neuronal Avalanches , 2009, PLoS Comput. Biol..

[22]  Jure Leskovec,et al.  On the Convexity of Latent Social Network Inference , 2010, NIPS.

[23]  J Kurths,et al.  Inner composition alignment for inferring directed networks from short time series. , 2011, Physical review letters.

[24]  A. J. Hall Infectious diseases of humans: R. M. Anderson & R. M. May. Oxford etc.: Oxford University Press, 1991. viii + 757 pp. Price £50. ISBN 0-19-854599-1 , 1992 .

[25]  Piet Van Mieghem,et al.  Graph Spectra for Complex Networks , 2010 .

[26]  Alessandro Vespignani,et al.  Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks. , 2000, Physical review letters.

[27]  M. Timme,et al.  Revealing networks from dynamics: an introduction , 2014, 1408.2963.

[28]  P. Van Mieghem,et al.  Virus Spread in Networks , 2009, IEEE/ACM Transactions on Networking.

[29]  F. Di Lauro,et al.  Network inference from population-level observation of epidemics , 2019, Scientific Reports.

[30]  Qiang Liu,et al.  Network Localization Is Unalterable by Infections in Bursts , 2018, IEEE Transactions on Network Science and Engineering.

[31]  Duncan J. Watts,et al.  Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks , 1998, Nature.

[32]  Albert,et al.  Emergence of scaling in random networks , 1999, Science.

[33]  Piet Van Mieghem,et al.  Evaluation of an analytic, approximate formula for the time-varying SIS prevalence in different networks , 2017 .

[34]  Carl Kingsford,et al.  Convex Risk Minimization to Infer Networks from probabilistic diffusion data at multiple scales , 2015, 2015 IEEE 31st International Conference on Data Engineering.

[35]  Pik-Yin Lai,et al.  Reconstructing weighted networks from dynamics. , 2015, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[36]  Pascal Frossard,et al.  Learning Graphs From Data: A Signal Representation Perspective , 2018, IEEE Signal Processing Magazine.

[37]  Laurent Hébert-Dufresne,et al.  Efficient sampling of spreading processes on complex networks using a composition and rejection algorithm , 2018, Comput. Phys. Commun..

[38]  Tyrus Berry,et al.  Detecting connectivity changes in neuronal networks , 2012, Journal of Neuroscience Methods.

[39]  D. Gillespie Exact Stochastic Simulation of Coupled Chemical Reactions , 1977 .

[40]  P. Van Mieghem,et al.  Influence of assortativity and degree-preserving rewiring on the spectra of networks , 2010 .

[41]  Bastian Prasse,et al.  Exact Network Reconstruction from Complete SIS Nodal State Infection Information Seems Infeasible , 2019, IEEE Transactions on Network Science and Engineering.

[42]  Xun Li,et al.  Reconstruction of stochastic temporal networks through diffusive arrival times , 2017, Nature Communications.

[43]  Alan M. Frieze,et al.  Random graphs , 2006, SODA '06.

[44]  Ying-Cheng Lai,et al.  Statistical inference approach to structural reconstruction of complex networks from binary time series. , 2018, Physical review. E.

[45]  T. E. Harris Contact Interactions on a Lattice , 1974 .

[46]  Sujay Sanghavi,et al.  Learning the graph of epidemic cascades , 2012, SIGMETRICS '12.

[47]  K. Goh,et al.  Universal behavior of load distribution in scale-free networks. , 2001, Physical review letters.

[48]  Marc Timme,et al.  Revealing physical interaction networks from statistics of collective dynamics , 2017, Science Advances.