European climate response to tropical volcanic eruptions over the last half millennium

[1] We analyse the winter and summer climatic signal following 15 major tropical volcanic eruptions over the last half millennium based on multi-proxy reconstructions for Europe. During the first and second post-eruption years we find significant continental scale summer cooling and somewhat drier conditions over Central Europe. In the Northern Hemispheric winter the volcanic forcing induces an atmospheric circulation response that significantly follows a positive NAO state connected with a significant overall warm anomaly and wetter conditions over Northern Europe. Our findings compare well with GCM studies as well as observational studies, which mainly cover the substantially shorter instrumental period and thus include a limited set of major eruptions.

[1]  H. Wanner,et al.  European Seasonal and Annual Temperature Variability, Trends, and Extremes Since 1500 , 2004, Science.

[2]  Charles S. Zender,et al.  A monthly and latitudinally varying volcanic forcing dataset in simulations of 20th century climate , 2003 .

[3]  Christoph C. Raible,et al.  Externally Forced and Internal Variability in Ensemble Climate Simulations of the Maunder Minimum , 2005 .

[4]  V. Ramaswamy,et al.  Arctic Oscillation response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption: Effects of volcanic aerosols and ozone depletion , 2002 .

[5]  Jianping Mao,et al.  Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions , 1992 .

[6]  Heiko Paeth,et al.  European spring and autumn temperature variability and change of extremes over the last half millennium , 2005, Geophysical Research Letters.

[7]  H. Wanner,et al.  Five hundred years of gridded high-resolution precipitation reconstructions over Europe and the connection to large-scale circulation , 2006 .

[8]  B. Santer,et al.  Arctic Oscillation response to volcanic eruptions in the IPCC AR4 climate models , 2006 .

[9]  Jianping Mao,et al.  The Volcanic Signal in Surface Temperature Observations. , 1995 .

[10]  K. Kodera Influence of volcanic eruptions on the troposphere through stratospheric dynamical processes in the northern hemisphere winter , 1994 .

[11]  A. Robock Volcanic eruptions and climate , 2000 .

[12]  C. Wake,et al.  Ice core evidence for a second volcanic eruption around 1809 in the Northern Hemisphere , 2006 .

[13]  Caspar M. Ammann,et al.  Proxy evidence for an El Niño-like response to volcanic forcing , 2003, Nature.

[14]  Crowley,et al.  Atmospheric science: Methane rises from wetlands , 2011, Nature.

[15]  Malcolm K. Hughes,et al.  Proxy-Based Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Reconstructions: Sensitivity to Method, Predictor Network, Target Season, and Target Domain , 2005 .

[16]  R. Bradley The explosive volcanic eruption signal in northern hemisphere continental temperature records , 1988 .

[17]  G. Brier,et al.  Some applications of statistics to meteorology , 1958 .

[18]  C. Goodess,et al.  Global surface-temperature responses to major volcanic eruptions , 1987, Nature.

[19]  J. Angell,et al.  Surface Temperature Changes Following the Six Major Volcanic Episodes between 1780 and 1980 , 1985 .

[20]  E. Mosley‐Thompson,et al.  Ice core evidence for an explosive tropical volcanic eruption 6 years preceding Tambora , 1991 .

[21]  J. Perlwitz,et al.  Northern hemisphere tropospheric mid-latitude circulation after violent volcanic eruptions , 1993 .

[22]  Francis W. Zwiers,et al.  Detection of volcanic influence on global precipitation , 2004 .

[23]  Richard P. Turco,et al.  A model simulation of Pinatubo volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere , 1995 .

[24]  P. Groisman Possible regional climate consequences of the Pinatubo eruption: An empirical approach , 1992 .

[25]  A. Robock,et al.  Ice cores as an index of global volcanism from 1850 to the present , 1995 .

[26]  P. Jones,et al.  THE SPATIAL RESPONSE OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM TO EXPLOSIVE VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS , 1996 .

[27]  Kwang-Yul Kim,et al.  Detection of volcanic, solar and greenhouse gas signals in paleo‐reconstructions of Northern Hemispheric temperature , 2003 .

[28]  S. Self,et al.  The volcanic explosivity index (VEI) an estimate of explosive magnitude for historical volcanism , 1982 .

[29]  P. Naveau,et al.  Statistical analysis of tropical explosive volcanism occurrences over the last 6 centuries , 2003 .

[30]  G. Schmidt,et al.  Dynamic winter climate response to large tropical volcanic eruptions since 1600 , 2004 .

[31]  kwang-yul kim,et al.  Modeling the temperature response to forced climate change over the last six centuries , 1999 .

[32]  F. H. Schweingruber,et al.  Influence of volcanic eruptions on Northern Hemisphere summer temperature over the past 600 years , 1998, Nature.

[33]  G. Schmidt,et al.  Volcanic and Solar Forcing of Climate Change during the Preindustrial Era , 2003 .

[34]  Malcolm K. Hughes,et al.  Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries , 1998, Nature.

[35]  J. Pisek,et al.  Responses of large volcanic eruptions in the instrumental and documentary climatic data over Central Europe , 2006 .

[36]  A. Robock,et al.  Climate model simulation of winter warming and summer cooling following the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption , 1999 .

[37]  D. Handorf,et al.  Combined winter climate regimes over the North Atlantic/European sector 1766–2000 , 2005 .

[38]  E. Xoplaki,et al.  ENSO influence on Europe during the last centuries , 2006 .