Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics

Stream hydrology strongly affects the structure of aquatic communities. Changes to air temperature and precipitation driven by increased greenhouse gas concentrations are shifting timing and volume of streamflows potentially affecting these communities. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model has been employed at regional scales to describe and forecast hydrologic changes but has been calibrated and applied mainly to large rivers. An important question is how well VIC runoff simulations serve to answer questions about hydrologic changes in smaller streams, which are important habitat for many fish species. To answer this question, we aggregated gridded VIC outputs within the drainage basins of 55 streamflow gages in the Pacific Northwest United States and compared modeled hydrographs and summary metrics to observations. For most streams, several ecologically relevant aspects of the hydrologic regime were accurately modeled, including center of flow timing, mean annual and summer flows and frequency of winter floods. Frequencies of high and low flows in the summer were not well predicted, however. Predictions were worse for sites with strong groundwater influence, and some sites showed errors that may result from limitations in the forcing climate data. Higher resolution (1/16th degree) modeling provided small improvements over lower resolution (1/8th degree). Despite some limitations, the VIC model appears capable of representing several ecologically relevant hydrologic characteristics in streams, making it a useful tool for understanding the effects of hydrology in delimiting species distributions and predicting the potential effects of climate shifts on aquatic organisms.Related website: Western US Stream Flow Metric Dataset

[1]  K. Fausch.  A paradox of trout invasions in North America , 2008, Biological Invasions.

[2]  C. DeGasperi,et al.  Linking Hydrologic Alteration to Biological Impairment in Urbanizing Streams of the Puget Lowland, Washington, USA1 , 2009, Journal of the American Water Resources Association.

[3]  D. W. Seegrist,et al.  Effects of Floods on Trout in Sagehen Creek, California , 1972 .

[4]  R. McCuen,et al.  Evaluation of the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Index , 2006 .

[5]  M. Wigmosta,et al.  A distributed hydrology-vegetation model for complex terrain , 1994 .

[6]  Philip W. Mote,et al.  Trends in snow water equivalent in the Pacific Northwest and their climatic causes , 2003 .

[7]  K. Bennett,et al.  Quantifying the water resource impacts of mountain pine beetle and associated salvage harvest operations across a range of watershed scales: hydrologic modelling of the Fraser River Basin. , 2010 .

[8]  M. Dettinger,et al.  Changes in Snowmelt Runoff Timing in Western North America under a `Business as Usual' Climate Change Scenario , 2004 .

[9]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  A Long-Term Hydrologically Based Dataset of Land Surface Fluxes and States for the Conterminous United States* , 2002 .

[10]  K. Fausch,et al.  FLOOD DISTURBANCE REGIMES INFLUENCE RAINBOW TROUT INVASION SUCCESS AMONG FIVE HOLARCTIC REGIONS , 2001 .

[11]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  Surface soil moisture parameterization of the VIC-2L model: Evaluation and modification , 1996 .

[12]  S. Rood,et al.  Declining summer flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: Changing seasonal hydrology and probable impacts on floodplain forests , 2008 .

[13]  Dag Lohmann,et al.  A large‐scale horizontal routing model to be coupled to land surface parametrization schemes , 1996 .

[14]  M. Saier,et al.  Climate Change, 2007 , 2007 .

[15]  D. Crisp,et al.  Stream channel experiments on downstream movement of recently emerged trout, Salmo trutta L. and salmon, S. salar L.—I. Effect of four different water velocity treatments upon dispersal rate , 1991 .

[16]  B. Santer,et al.  Human-Induced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western United States , 2008, Science.

[17]  Gordon E. Grant,et al.  Groundwater dynamics mediate low‐flow response to global warming in snow‐dominated alpine regions , 2009 .

[18]  David G. Tarboton,et al.  The Influence of the Spatial Distribution of Snow on Basin-Averaged Snowmelt , 1998 .

[19]  Arthur A. Mirin,et al.  Detection and Attribution of Streamflow Timing Changes to Climate Change in the Western United States , 2009 .

[20]  Peter Goodwin,et al.  Hydrological response to timber harvest in northern Idaho: implications for channel scour and persistence of salmonids , 2008 .

[21]  A. Hamlet,et al.  Impacts of climate change on key aspects of freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State , 2009 .

[22]  Martyn P. Clark,et al.  Effects of Temperature and Precipitation Variability on Snowpack Trends in the Western United States , 2005 .

[23]  Martyn P. Clark,et al.  DECLINING MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA , 2005 .

[24]  R. Palmer,et al.  Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[25]  J. Aerts,et al.  Water balance versus land surface model in the simulation of Rhine river discharges , 2008 .

[26]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  Production of Temporally Consistent Gridded Precipitation and Temperature Fields for the Continental United States , 2005 .

[27]  A. Hamlet,et al.  Predicting differential effects of climate change at the population level with life‐cycle models of spring Chinook salmon , 2007 .

[28]  Erin E Peterson,et al.  Effects of climate change and wildfire on stream temperatures and salmonid thermal habitat in a mountain river network. , 2010, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[29]  Se-Yeun Lee,et al.  Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State , 2010 .

[30]  J. Harper,et al.  Significance of trends toward earlier snowmelt runoff, Columbia and Missouri Basin headwaters, western United States , 2007 .

[31]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington State , 2010 .

[32]  Z. Holden,et al.  Declining annual streamflow distributions in the Pacific Northwest United States, 1948–2006 , 2009 .

[33]  Nathaniel Anderson,et al.  Biomass utilization, forest restoration, and soil productivity associated with bioenergy harvesting and biochar application: Field and laboratory strategies for the U.S. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station , 2011 .

[34]  Dennis P. Lettenmaier,et al.  Climate-Change Scenarios for Water Planning Studies: Pilot Applications in the Pacific Northwest , 2003 .

[35]  Lisa M. Holsinger,et al.  Hydrologic regime and the conservation of salmon life history diversity , 2006 .

[36]  S. Schneider,et al.  Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California. , 2004, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[37]  D. Lytle,et al.  Adaptation to natural flow regimes. , 2004, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[38]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  Effects of land cover change on streamflow in the interior Columbia River Basin (USA and Canada) , 2000 .

[39]  R. Koster,et al.  The Rhône-Aggregation Land Surface Scheme Intercomparison Project: An Overview , 2002 .

[40]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models , 1994 .

[41]  Lifeng Luo,et al.  Monitoring and predicting the 2007 U.S. drought , 2007 .

[42]  Bryan C. Pijanowski,et al.  Hydroclimatic response of watersheds to urban intensity: an observational and modeling-based analysis for the White River Basin, Indiana. , 2010 .

[43]  Daniel R. Cayan,et al.  Potential effects of global warming on the Sacramento/San Joaquin watershed and the San Francisco estuary , 2002 .

[44]  Julie A. Vano,et al.  Climate change impacts on water management and irrigated agriculture in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA , 2010 .

[45]  R. Sparks,et al.  THE NATURAL FLOW REGIME. A PARADIGM FOR RIVER CONSERVATION AND RESTORATION , 1997 .

[46]  Brian P. Bledsoe,et al.  Predicting streamflow regime metrics for ungauged streamsin Colorado, Washington, and Oregon , 2006 .

[47]  M. Clark,et al.  Seasonal Cycle Shifts in Hydroclimatology over the Western United States , 2003 .

[48]  Michael D. Dettinger,et al.  Changes toward Earlier Streamflow Timing across Western North America , 2005 .

[49]  David P. Braun,et al.  How much water does a river need , 1997 .

[50]  C. Daly,et al.  A Statistical-Topographic Model for Mapping Climatological Precipitation over Mountainous Terrain , 1994 .

[51]  David M. Wolock,et al.  Base-Flow Index Grid for the Conterminous United States , 2003 .

[52]  Keith Beven,et al.  Changing ideas in hydrology — The case of physically-based models , 1989 .

[53]  R. Sparks,et al.  The Natural Flow Regime , 2006 .

[54]  N. LeRoy Poff,et al.  Implications of Streamflow Variability and Predictability for Lotic Community Structure: A Regional Analysis of Streamflow Patterns , 1989 .

[55]  Murugesu Sivapalan,et al.  Scale issues in hydrological modelling: A review , 1995 .

[56]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  Effects of 20 th century warming and climate variability on flood risk in the western U . S . , 2007 .

[57]  Jennifer C. Adam,et al.  Implications of global climate change for snowmelt hydrology in the twenty‐first century , 2009 .

[58]  J. Heggenes,et al.  Downstream migration and critical water velocities in stream channels for fry of four salmonid species , 1988 .

[59]  Bart Nijssen,et al.  Eegional scale hydrology: I. Formulation of the VIC-2L model coupled to a routing model , 1998 .

[60]  M. Gannett,et al.  Ground-Water Hydrology of the Upper Deschutes Basin, Oregon , 2001 .

[61]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  Effects of 20th century warming and climate variability on flood risk in the western U.S. , 2006 .

[62]  Bart Nijssen,et al.  The Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model , 2002 .

[63]  Alan M. Lumb,et al.  Hydro-Climatic Data Network (HCDN) Streamflow Data Set, 1874-1988 , 1993 .

[64]  Richard N. Palmer,et al.  Climate change impacts on water management in the Puget Sound region, Washington State, USA , 2010 .

[65]  Derek B. Booth,et al.  Hydrologic Changes in Urban Streams and Their Ecological Significance , 2005 .

[66]  J. Nash,et al.  River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles☆ , 1970 .

[67]  T. Foin,et al.  Interactions between stochastic and deterministic processes in stream fish community assembly , 2004, Environmental Biology of Fishes.