The development of a tool to predict team performance.

The paper describes the development of a tool to predict quantitatively the success of a team when executing a process. The tool was developed for the UK defence industry, though it may be useful in other domains. It is expected to be used by systems engineers in initial stages of systems design, when concepts are still fluid, including the structure of the team(s) which are expected to be operators within the system. It enables answers to be calculated for questions such as "What happens if I reduce team size?" and "Can I reduce the qualifications necessary to execute this process and still achieve the required level of success?". The tool has undergone verification and validation; it predicts fairly well and shows promise. An unexpected finding is that the tool creates a good a priori argument for significant attention to Human Factors Integration in systems projects. The simulations show that if a systems project takes full account of human factors integration (selection, training, process design, interaction design, culture, etc.) then the likelihood of team success will be in excess of 0.95. As the project derogates from this state, the likelihood of team success will drop as low as 0.05. If the team has good internal communications and good individuals in key roles, the likelihood of success rises towards 0.25. Even with a team comprising the best individuals, p(success) will not be greater than 0.35. It is hoped that these results will be useful for human factors professionals involved in systems design.