Optimizing the selection of VV&A activities: a risk/benefit approach

This paper discusses a riskhenefit analysis approach to the selection of an optimal set of VV&A activities. The approach is an adaptation of MIL-STD-882C (System Safety Program Requirements) to the requirements of establishing the credibility of models and simulations (M&S). Risks and benefits of M&S use are quantified in terms of impact level and probability of occurrence within the context of specific applications. These assessments are then used to determine the level of M&S credibility required to minimize risk and/or maximize benefit. The required level of credibility is then used to select the most appropriate mix of VV&A activities from a standard set of activities that is calibrated to varying levds of required credibility. The end result is an ability to objectively justify the chosen set of VV&A activities, and to monitor the impact of riskhenefit changes on VV&A requirements. (This paper was originally presented at the Summer Computer Simulation Conference in Arlington, Virginia in July, 1997. It is presented here (in modified form) as part of WSC ‘97 IT- 10 1 (Establishing Simulation Credibility Through VV&A)).