Plug-in Hybrid and Battery Electric Vehicles. Market penetration scenarios of electric drive vehicles

Electric-drive vehicles (EDVs) are currently emerging in the market and are seen as a promising option towards a less carbon intensive road transport. This report presents a prospective analysis in relation with two of the current bottlenecks for the diffusion of electric vehicles. These concern batteries performance and cost, and the access to charging infrastructures. Based on projections on these factors, the analysis develops scenarios for the future market for electric cars and provides indicative estimations of the impacts on energy consumption and CO2 emissions at EU level. To this end, a modelling approach was developed, enabling to assess the future market penetration of electric vehicles and evaluate the effects of some key factors determining electromobility, including battery costs and performance and access to grid to for recharging. It offers some possibilities to assess the effects of policies such as infrastructure investment and incentives to car consumers. The approach is mainly demand driven in the sense that the effects and, also, possible constraints from the electricity grid and from the power generation sector are not considered. The effects of a growing electricity demand and possible charging profiles are also not addressed at this stage. This is currently being carried out by using an EU-TIMES-based model of which conclusions will be presented reported in a subsequent report.