Accident Risk Analysis Benchmarking Monte Carlo Simulation versus Event Sequences

Fault and event trees are the dominantly used safety risk models in air traffic. Systemic accident risk assessment by Monte Carlo simulation is a more recent technique, the power of which is less explored. In this paper we compare the two approaches for an accident risk analysis of an active runway crossing operation that is supported by a runway incursion alerting system for the runway controller. For this example we show and explain remarkable differences in results obtained using the two approaches. Keywordsrunway crossing; runway incursion; collision risk; stochastic systems; Monte Carlo simulation; event sequence analysis; alert system

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