Policy Decisions Evaluation in Agriculture Employing Input-Output Techniques: The Case of Tobacco Sector Regime Reform

The evaluation of both direct and indirect effects of policy reforms are of primary interest in studies related to farm sector. This ex post evaluation is much more important for small regional economies depending on agriculture and rural activities for their prosperity. To that end, the present paper attempts to provide an empirical assessment of a hypothetical reform in the tobacco regime in Greece. Specifically, various scenarios on the basis of farm income decoupling are formed and empirically evaluated. For doing so an input-output approach combined with recent advances in goal programming modeling is employed. The analysis is carried out for both the national and the regional economy of Anatoliki Makedonia and Thraki highly specialized in tobacco cultivation. The empirical results indicate that both the national and the regional economy will suffer significant employment, output and income losses from the change in the policy regime towards farm income decoupling.

[1]  Anthony T. Flegg,et al.  Regional Size, Regional Specialization and the FLQ Formula , 2000 .

[2]  K. Mattas,et al.  The dynamics of crop sectors in regional development: The case of tobacco , 1999 .

[3]  P. Leung,et al.  Accounting for the linkages of agriculture in Hawaii‘s economy with an input-output model: A final demand-based approach , 1999 .

[4]  Efthalia Dimara,et al.  Adoption of new tobacco varieties in Greece: Impacts of empirical findings on policy design , 1998 .

[5]  Philip McCann,et al.  Regional Size, Industrial Location and Input‐Output Expenditure Coefficients , 1998 .

[6]  Steven Brand,et al.  On the Appropriate Use of Location Quotients in Generating Regional Input-Output Tables: A Comment , 1997 .

[7]  D. Hughes,et al.  Rural-Urban Economic Linkages for Agriculture and Food Processing in the Monroe, Louisiana, Functional Economic Area , 1996, Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics.

[8]  D. Hughes,et al.  Evaluating the Impacts of Agricultural Exports on a Regional Economy , 1996, Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics.

[9]  A. Flegg,et al.  On the Appropriate Use of Location Quotients in Generating Regional Input‐Output Tables: Reply , 1995 .

[10]  G. Schluter,et al.  Redefining Agriculture in Interindustry Analysis , 1994 .

[11]  W. Baumol,et al.  A key role for input-output analysis in policy design , 1994 .

[12]  P. Midmore.  INPUT-OUTPUT FORECASTING OF REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL POLICY IMPACTS , 1993 .

[13]  J. Szyrmer,et al.  Input—Output Coefficients and Multipliers from a Total-Flow Perspective , 1992 .

[14]  Norman K. Whittlesey,et al.  Economic Impacts, Value Added, and Benefits in Regional Project Analysis , 1991 .

[15]  K. Mattas,et al.  The food sector and economic growth , 1989 .

[16]  P. Leat,et al.  THE APPLICATION OF MODIFIED GRIT INPUT-OUTPUT PROCEDURES TO RURAL DEVELOPMENT ANALYSIS IN GRAMPIAN REGION , 1987 .

[17]  C. Doyle,et al.  Effectiveness of Farm Policies on Social and Economic Development in Rural Areas , 1997 .

[18]  D. Roberts.  A MODIFIED LEONTIEF MODEL FOR ANALYSING THE IMPACT OF MILK QUOTAS ON THE WIDER ECONOMY , 1994 .

[19]  L. Harrison.  The impact of the agricultural industry on the rural economy — tracking the spatial distribution of the farm inputs and outputs , 1993 .

[20]  A. Pagoulatos,et al.  Determining Differential Sectoral Impacts of Investment , 1990 .

[21]  G. Wossink,et al.  Backward and forward effects of Dutch agriculture , 1987 .

[22]  G. Schluter,et al.  Measuring Backward and Forward Linkages in the U.S. Food and Fiber System , 1985 .

[23]  Ewa Rablnowicz.  Input-output studies of agriculture in regional economy — some problems of method , 1982 .