The Transition from Youth to Adult: Understanding the Age Pattern of Employment

This article examines the growth in probabilities of employment for American men between the ages of 16 and 29. A young man's probability of employment is strongly affected by his other roles, statuses, and activities, and a cohort's employment growth depends on its age distribution of these traits. This article considers two important activities in the lives of young men-school enrollment and enlistment in the armed forces-and examines mechanisms through which these affect employment. The mechanisms include the constraining effect of each activity on the others, the disruptive effects of leaving school or the armend forces-and examines mechanisms through which these affect employment. The mechanisms include the constraining effect of each activity on the others, the disruptive effects of leaving school or the armed forces on finding employment, and the selective retention of men with varying employment prospects by schools and the armed forces. A decomposition of changes in employment between ages 16 and 29-based on a multivariate model of employment, enrollment, and enlistment applied to Current Population Survey and Defense Department data-shows that approximately 80% of employment growth with age can be attributed to these mechanisms. The article discusses the relevance of this analysis to previous research on the early life cicle, to the problem of youth joblessness, and to intercohort changes in youth employment.

[1]  E. Kitagawa,et al.  Components of a Difference Between Two Rates , 1955 .

[2]  Lillian Cohen,et al.  Statistical Methods for Social Scientists. , 1954 .

[3]  O. D. Duncan,et al.  The American Occupational Structure , 1967 .

[4]  H. Folk.  The Problem of Youth Unemployment. , 1968 .

[5]  W. Bowen,et al.  The Economics of Labor Force Participation. , 1969 .

[6]  E. Kalachek.  The youth labor market , 1969 .

[7]  Edward D. Kalacheck.  The Youth Labor Market. Policy Papers in Human Resources and Industrial Relations No. 12. , 1969 .

[8]  H. White,et al.  Chains of Opportunity , 2014 .

[9]  Jerome L. Martin,et al.  Chains of Opportunity , 1971 .

[10]  O. D. Duncan,et al.  Socioeconomic Background and Achievement. , 1974 .

[11]  Henry S. Shryock,et al.  The Methods and Materials of Demography. , 1973 .

[12]  M. Feldstein.  Economics of the New Unemployment , 1973 .

[13]  S. Conly.  Education and Labor Market Tightness. , 1974 .

[14]  Kathryn R. Gover,et al.  Job Situation of Vietnam-Era Veterans. , 1974 .

[15]  D. O. Parsons.  The Cost of School Time, Foregone Earnings, and Human Capital Formation , 1974, Journal of Political Economy.

[16]  J. Coleman.  Youth: Transition to Adulthood , 1974 .

[17]  J. Mincer.  Schooling, Experience, and Earnings , 1976 .

[18]  A. Katz.  Schooling, Age, and Length of Unemployment , 1974 .

[19]  A. Moehlman,et al.  Inequality, A Reassessment of the Effect of Family and Schooling in America. , 1974 .

[20]  E. Lazear.  Schooling as a Wage Depressant , 1977 .

[21]  G. Elder.  Age Differentiation and the Life Course , 1975 .

[22]  Shelby Stewman,et al.  Two Markov Models of Open System Occupational Mobility: Underlying Conceptualizations and Empirical Tests , 1975 .

[23]  Aage B. Sorensen,et al.  The Structure of Intragenerational Mobility. , 1975 .

[24]  Nancy Brandon Tuma,et al.  Rewards, Resources, and the Rate of Mobility: A Nonstationary Multivariate Stochastic Model , 1976 .

[25]  M. Ornstein.  Entry into the American labor force , 1976 .

[26]  A. B. Sørensen.  The Structure of Inequality and the Process of Attainment. , 1976 .

[27]  J. Heckman.  Dummy Endogenous Variables in a Simultaneous Equation System , 1977 .

[28]  Henry S. Shryock,et al.  The Methods and Materials of Demography. , 1977 .

[29]  R. Hauser,et al.  Education, Occupation and Earnings. , 1977 .

[30]  D. McFadden,et al.  URBAN TRAVEL DEMAND - A BEHAVIORAL ANALYSIS , 1977 .

[31]  S. Spilerman,et al.  Careers, Labor Market Structure, and Socioeconomic Achievement , 1977, American Journal of Sociology.

[32]  H. Winsborough.  11 – Statistical Histories of the Life Cycle of Birth Cohorts: The Transition from Schoolboy to Adult Male1 , 1978 .

[33]  C. Erickson,et al.  Transitions. The Family and Life Course in Historical Perspective. , 1978 .

[34]  D. Wise,et al.  A CONDITIONAL PROBIT MODEL FOR QUALITATIVE CHOICE: DISCRETE DECISIONS RECOGNIZING INTERDEPENDENCE AND HETEROGENEOUS PREFERENCES' , 1978 .

[35]  Gary D. Sandefur,et al.  Opportunity and Change. , 1978 .

[36]  Richard V. L. Cooper.  Youth Labor Markets and the Military. The Rand Paper Series. , 1978 .

[37]  M. Marini.  The Transition to Adulthood: Sex Differences in Educational Attainment and Age at Marriage. , 1978 .

[38]  Dennis P. Hogan,et al.  The Variable Order of Events in the Life Course. , 1978 .

[39]  M. Feldstein,et al.  Teenage Unemployment: What is the Problem? , 1979 .

[40]  D. Wise,et al.  High School Preparation and Early Labor Force Experience , 1979 .

[41]  S. Nickell.  Education and Lifetime Patterns of Unemployment , 1979, Journal of Political Economy.

[42]  A. Stinchcombe.  Social Mobility in Industrial Labor Markets , 1979 .

[43]  The Impact of the Market and the Family on Youth Employment and Labor Supply , 1979 .

[44]  R. Hauser.  On "Stratification in a Dual Economy" , 1980 .

[45]  Getting Started: The Youth Labor Market , 1980 .

[46]  Robert D. Mare,et al.  Social Background and School Continuation Decisions , 1980 .

[47]  R. Mare.  Correlates of achievement. , 1980, Science.

[48]  R. Rindfuss,et al.  Education and fertility: implications for the roles women occupy. , 1980, American sociological review.

[49]  T. W. Reilly,et al.  Estimating the Effects of Marriage Timing on Educational Attainment: Some Procedural Issues and Substantive Clarifications , 1981, American Journal of Sociology.

[50]  T. DiPrete.  Unemployment Over the Life Cycle: Racial Differences and the Effect of Changing Economic Conditions , 1981, American Journal of Sociology.

[51]  Tsoung-Chao Lee,et al.  The Theory and Practice of Econometrics , 1981 .

[52]  T. Hareven,et al.  Transition: The Family and the Life Course in Historical Perspective , 1981 .

[53]  Diane N. Westcott,et al.  Employment and Unemployment: A Report on 1980. , 1981 .

[54]  Dennis P. Hogan,et al.  Transitions and Social Change: The Early Lives of American Men , 1981 .

[55]  S. Christensen.  Improving Youth Employment Prospects: Issues and Options. A CBO Study. , 1982 .

[56]  S. Spilerman,et al.  The Age Structures of Occupations and Jobs , 1982, American Journal of Sociology.

[57]  D. Featherman,et al.  Societal Transformation in Norway and Change in the Life Course Transition Into Adulthood , 1983 .

[58]  K. Alexander,et al.  Bringing the Arrows Back In: On the Recursivity Assumptions in School Process Models , 1983 .

[59]  Christopher Winship,et al.  THE PARADOX OF LESSENING RACIAL INEQUALITY AND JOBLESSNESS AMONG BLACK YOUTH: ENROLLMENT, ENLISTMENT, AND EMPLOYMENT, 1964-1981* , 1984 .

[60]  Peter Schmidt,et al.  The Theory and Practice of Econometrics , 1985 .