Keep It Real!: A Real-time UK Macro Data Set

In this paper, we present a real-time macro data set for the UK. Each variable has many different vintages---reflecting the revisions that occur in real time. Our aim is to provide a resource that allows researchers to assess the robustness of their results to data revisions. We illustrate the importance of this issue by analysing the impact of real-time data on UK inflation forecasts.

[1]  Dean Croushore,et al.  A real-time data set for macroeconomists , 2001 .

[2]  Kerry Patterson,et al.  Are different vintages of data on the components of GDP co-integrated?: Some evidence for the United Kingdom , 1991 .

[3]  G. Maynard.  The Economy Under Mrs. Thatcher , 1988 .

[4]  A. Zellner.  A Statistical Analysis of Provisional Estimates of Gross National Product and its Components, of Selected National Income Components, and of Personal Saving , 1958 .

[5]  H. Stekler.  Data Revisions and Economic Forecasting , 1967 .

[6]  David F. Hendry,et al.  Modelling UK inflation, 1875–1991 , 2001 .

[7]  Kerry Patterson.  A state space model for reducing the uncertainty associated with preliminary vintages of data with an application to aggregate consumption , 1994 .

[8]  Kerry Patterson.  A state space approach to forecasting the final vintage of revised data with an application to the index of industrial production , 1995 .

[9]  Kerry Patterson,et al.  Data Revisions and the Expenditure Components of GDP , 1991 .

[10]  Athanasios Orphanides,et al.  The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time , 1999 .

[11]  Kenneth Frank Wallis,et al.  Models of the Uk Economy: A Review by the Esrc Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau , 1985 .

[12]  The View from No-when1 , 1998, The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.

[13]  Dean Croushore,et al.  A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists: Does the Data Vintage Matter? , 1999 .

[14]  Athanasios Orphanides.  Activist Stabilization Policy and Inflation: The Taylor Rule in the 1970s , 2000 .

[15]  Athanasios Orphanides,et al.  The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time , 2002, Review of Economics and Statistics.

[16]  A. Timmermann,et al.  Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance , 1995 .

[17]  Athanasios Orphanides.  Monetary policy rules based on real-time data , 2001 .

[18]  Sgb Henry.  Models of the UK economy: A fourth review by the ESRC Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau: K.F. Wallis, ed, P.G. Fisher, J.A. Longbottom, D.S. Turner and J.D. Whitley, (Oxford University Press, Oxford, U.K., 1987) [UK pound]22.50/$36.00, pp. 152 , 1989 .

[19]  Christopher Johnson.  The economy under Mrs Thatcher, 1979-1990 , 1991 .

[20]  Richard D. Porter,et al.  Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy , 1999 .