Policy punctuations in the UK: fluctuations and equilibria in central government expenditure since 1951

Jones and Baumgartner's punctuated equilibrium model of agenda change has reinvigorated decision-making theory; moreover their US budget project offers a set of techniques to apply to UK data. We replicate the method by plotting percentage budget changes in central government budgets to see whether the distribution is normally distributed as predicted by the incrementalist account or leptokurtic as hypothesized by the punctuated equilibrium model. Taking the period 1951–96, we create 405 data points from budget changes from the National Income Accounts (‘Blue Book’) on agriculture, defence, social security, education, health, housing, industry, law and order and transport, all adjusted using the GDP deflator at factor cost. We find that the budget changes form a leptokurtic distribution. Such a pattern appears in most policy sectors.

[1]  C. Thain,et al.  The Treasury and Whitehall , 1995 .

[2]  John R. Gist.  “Stability” and “Competition” in Budgetary Theory , 1982 .

[3]  B. Jones,et al.  Nonlegislative Hearings and Policy Change in Congress , 1995 .

[4]  John F. Padgett.  Hierarchy and Ecological Control in Federal Budgetary Decision Making , 1981, American Journal of Sociology.

[5]  Richard I. Hofferbert,et al.  The Party Mandate and the Westminster Model: Election Programmes and Government Spending in Britain, 1948–85 , 1992, British Journal of Political Science.

[6]  R. Klein.  The Politics of Public Expenditure: American Theory and British Practice , 1976, British Journal of Political Science.

[7]  S. Shapiro,et al.  An Analysis of Variance Test for Normality (Complete Samples) , 1965 .

[8]  James true.  Avalanches and Incrementalism , 2000 .

[9]  Paul R. Schulman,et al.  Nonincremental Policy Making: Notes Toward an Alternative Paradigm , 1975, American Political Science Review.

[10]  Michael A. H. Dempster,et al.  Towards A Predictive Theory of Government Expenditure: Us Domestic Appropriations , 1974, British Journal of Political Science.

[11]  Richard I. Hofferbert,et al.  Mandates and Policy Outputs: U.S. Party Platforms and Federal Expenditures , 1990, American Political Science Review.

[12]  R. J. O'Connor,et al.  Operationalizing Incrementalism: Measuring the Muddles , 1975 .

[13]  John F. Padgett.  Bounded Rationality in Budgetary Research , 1980, American Political Science Review.

[14]  William D. Berry.  Testing Budgetary Theories with Budgetary Data: Assessing the Risks , 1986 .

[15]  James N. Danziger.  Assessing Incrementalism in British Municipal Budgeting , 1976, British Journal of Political Science.

[16]  Michael A. H. Dempster,et al.  A Theory of the Budgetary Process , 1966, American Political Science Review.

[17]  D. Mowery,et al.  Influences on Executive and Congressional Budgetary Priorities, 1955–1981 , 1987, American Political Science Review.

[18]  Kenneth A. Schultz.  The Politics of the Political Business Cycle , 1995, British Journal of Political Science.

[19]  Budgetary Side Payments and Government Growth: 1953-1968 , 1983 .

[20]  D. Mowery,et al.  Modeling U.S. Budgetary and Fiscal Policy Outcomes: A Disaggregated, Systemwide Perspective , 1993 .

[21]  B. Jones,et al.  The Destruction of Issue Monopolies in Congress , 1993, American Political Science Review.

[22]  Bryan D. Jones,et al.  Policy Punctuations: U.S. Budget Authority, 1947-1995 , 1998, The Journal of Politics.

[23]  Bryan D. Jones,et al.  Agenda Dynamics and Policy Subsystems , 1991, The Journal of Politics.

[24]  C. Lindblom.  Still Muddling, Not Yet Through. , 1979 .

[25]  I. C. Bupp,et al.  Policy and Priority in the Budgetary Process , 1973, American Political Science Review.

[26]  B. Bozeman,et al.  A Sequential Model of Congressional Appropriations , 1984 .

[27]  William D. Berry.  The Confusing Case of Budgetary Incrementalism: Too Many Meanings for a Single Concept , 1990, The Journal of Politics.

[28]  B. Jones,et al.  Does incrementalism stem from political consensus or from institutional gridlock , 1997 .