A Mixed Strategy in Action

DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE current interest in the Theory of Games, it does not appear to have been used so far for the solution of many practical problems. An actual tactical problem, whose solution followed, although unconsciously, the lines suggested by the Theory of Games, may therefore be of interest. The setting is that of a military escort protecting a convoy of food lorries against guerilla attack. A convoy of civilian food lorries used to travel daily along a jungle-fringed road in Malaya and was subject to occasional attack by Communist terrorists. The lorries were protected by a military escort of four armoured vehicles equipped with machine guns and carrying a small force of infantry which could be dismounted if necessary. There was wireless communication between the four vehicles and also back to their base camp On any one day the terrorists could either: (a) stage a full-scale attack on the convoy, or (b) fire at the convoy to cause casualties and to deter the drivers of the food lorries from serving on the convoy again. Once committed to one of these courses of action it was virtually impossible for them to change to the other. To satisfy various commercial interests, the convoy had to run at the same time each day so the courses open to the escort were restricted to the various possible deployments of the armoured vehicles along the convoy. One further limiting condition was that, for satisfactory control, there had to be at least one escort vehicle at each end of the convoy. The alternatives were therefore: (a) one vehicle at the front of the convoy and three vehicles at the rear; (b) one vehicle at the front, one at the rear and the other two distributed along the convoy either together or separately; (c) two vehicles at the front and two at the rear; (d) three vehicles at the front and one at the rear. Thus with four strategies available to the convoy escort and two to the terrorists, there are eight outcomes to be evaluated. Against a full-scale terrorist attack, the convoy escort should preferably be concentrated and so placed that it tends to be carried towards the ambush position rather than away from it. Against terrorist sniping, though, the escort should be dispersed so that it can spot where the fire is coming from and return it quickly.