Estimating behavioral changes for transportation modes after terrorist attacks in London, Madrid, and Tokyo

Why do individuals change their behavior after terrorist attacks? To what extent do changes in risk perception explain changes in travel behavior? This project aims to answer these questions by examining three major attacks in recent history on public transit systems: the London bombings in July 2005, the Madrid bombings on March 11, 2004, and the Sarin Gas attacks in Tokyo on March 20, 1995. Each case is found to be unique. Reductions in passenger journeys on attacked transportation modes range from an average of 10 percent over 20 weeks in London to no significant change in Tokyo, while substitution to alternative modes also varies across cases. This variance is likely due to more than cultural difference, with primary attack characteristics, transportation system factors, and the social amplification of risk perceptions also playing a role. Such findings have important implications for policy makers and academics with an interest in transportation security and the behavioral and economic impacts of terrorist attacks.

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