Probabilistic assessment of the energy not produced due to transmission constraints

The new index developed in this paper quantifies the energy not produced due to weaknesses of the grid. In the modern under-invested and heavily loaded open-access power grids, transmission constraints can potentially limit some generators' outputs. This is a very sensitive matter for both the existing and future generation projects. The generator owners want to know in advance whether the power can be robustly injected to the grid from a particular location, what the generation limits are, where the generation pockets are located in the area, what the probability of not being committed is, and how these problems could develop with time. This information is very helpful for decision-making regarding new generation projects and transmission systems enhancements. It directly influences the generator bidding strategies, market clearing prices, and manifestations of market power. The probabilistic index suggested in this paper, the expected energy not produced (EENP), evaluates the annual, monthly, and even daily energy that is expectedly locked at any plant location due to transmission limits. The paper formulates the EENP index, describes the computational techniques, and discusses its possible applications. For a real one of the major US utilities, the paper illustrates applications of the new index.