Estimating the trend of micropollutants in lakes as decision-making support in IWRM: a case study in Lake Paranoá, Brazil

Reservoir water becomes increasingly important as a drinking water resource in densely populated areas that have to respond to the challenge of water scarcity and quality. The Lake Paranoá in Central Brazil is under discussion to be used as a reservoir for drinking water production. There is concern regarding the water quality since the two largest wastewater treatment plants discharge into the lake. This issue raised the question about the need and efficiency of additional treatment to remove micropollutants. In this context, the present study aims to derive decision-making support by estimating the future concentration trends of five selected micropollutant markers in Lake Paranoá based on a minimum measured data set of three years. Results indicated slowly increasing trends and no steady-state situation until 2060 for persistent compounds. A quasi steady state is reached for degradable micropollutants. Furthermore, scenario analyses showed that a reduction of micropollutant emissions by advanced wastewater treatment would only be observable and detectable in the lake after around one decade due to the inertia of the lake. This agrees well with the observed total phosphorus reduction after the installation of phosphorus removal treatment.

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