Modelling approaches to the innovative development of forestry enterprises using the coefficient of random changes

The scientific article presents the empirical results of modelling the innovative development of enterprises related to the Russian timber industry. Modelling was carried out using the coefficient of random changes, based on the regression correlation of random variables with the inclusion of the standard deviation in the calculation. In most cases, modelling is carried out using standard methodologies based on the construction of linear and regression equations. Standard methodologies do not take into account the possibility of introducing the scientific component of innovative development into production activities at forestry enterprises, in the implementation of innovative activities. When modelling approaches to the innovative development of timber industry enterprises, the coefficient of random changes was analyzed in several variations, the values of which ranged from 0.1 to 0.73, the most optimal values were established, which demonstrate the values of sustainable growth of the studied indicators. In the course of the study, the method of approximate numerical value of stochastic differential equations was used, based on the methodology of the second order of accuracy of the integration of production indicators.