Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium

Abstract. Understanding natural climate variability and its driving factors is crucial to assessing future climate change. Therefore, comparing proxy-based climate reconstructions with forcing factors as well as comparing these with paleoclimate model simulations is key to gaining insights into the relative roles of internal versus forced variability. A review of the state of modelling of the climate of the last millennium prior to the CMIP5–PMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5–Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3) coordinated effort is presented and compared to the available temperature reconstructions. Simulations and reconstructions broadly agree on reproducing the major temperature changes and suggest an overall linear response to external forcing on multidecadal or longer timescales. Internal variability is found to have an important influence at hemispheric and global scales. The spatial distribution of simulated temperature changes during the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age disagrees with that found in the reconstructions. Thus, either internal variability is a possible major player in shaping temperature changes through the millennium or the model simulations have problems realistically representing the response pattern to external forcing. A last millennium transient climate response (LMTCR) is defined to provide a quantitative framework for analysing the consistency between simulated and reconstructed climate. Beyond an overall agreement between simulated and reconstructed LMTCR ranges, this analysis is able to single out specific discrepancies between some reconstructions and the ensemble of simulations. The disagreement is found in the cases where the reconstructions show reduced covariability with external forcings or when they present high rates of temperature change.

[1]  J. Smerdon,et al.  A Pseudoproxy Evaluation of Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling and Canonical Correlation Analysis for Climate Field Reconstructions over Europe , 2013 .

[2]  P. Mayewski,et al.  An independently dated 2000-yr volcanic record from Law Dome, East Antarctica, including a new perspective on the dating of the 1450s CE eruption of Kuwae, Vanuatu , 2012 .

[3]  A. Moberg Comments on “Reconstruction of the Extratropical NH Mean Temperature over the Last Millennium with a Method That Preserves Low-Frequency Variability” , 2012 .

[4]  Bo Li,et al.  Defining spatial comparison metrics for evaluation of paleoclimatic field reconstructions of the Common Era , 2012 .

[5]  Andy Baker,et al.  Millennial-length forward models and pseudoproxies of stalagmite δ 18 O: an example from NW Scotland , 2012 .

[6]  T. Delworth,et al.  Multicentennial variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and its climatic influence in a 4000 year simulation of the GFDL CM2.1 climate model , 2012 .

[7]  T. Stocker,et al.  Testing the robustness of a precipitation proxy-based North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction , 2012 .

[8]  Yan Zhao,et al.  Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data , 2012 .

[9]  Bo Li,et al.  Comments on “Reconstructing the NH Mean Temperature: Can Underestimation of Trends and Variability Be Avoided?” , 2012 .

[10]  B. Christiansen,et al.  The extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperature in the last two millennia: reconstructions of low-frequency variability , 2012 .

[11]  P. Yiou,et al.  Stability of weather regimes during the last millennium from climate simulations , 2012 .

[12]  Karl E. Taylor,et al.  An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design , 2012 .

[13]  V. Trouet,et al.  North Atlantic storminess and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the last Millennium: Reconciling contradictory proxy records of NAO variability , 2012 .

[14]  Hugues Goosse,et al.  The medieval climate anomaly in Europe: Comparison of the summer and annual mean signals in two reconstructions and in simulations with data assimilation , 2012 .

[15]  T. Crowley,et al.  Technical details concerning development of a 1200 yr proxy index for global volcanism , 2012 .

[16]  Christian Ohlwein,et al.  Review of probabilistic pollen-climate transfer methods , 2012 .

[17]  H. Goosse,et al.  The role of forcing and internal dynamics in explaining the “Medieval Climate Anomaly” , 2011, Climate Dynamics.

[18]  Jason E. Smerdon,et al.  Climate models as a test bed for climate reconstruction methods: pseudoproxy experiments , 2012 .

[19]  S. Phipps,et al.  The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1.0 - Part 2: Response to external forcings , 2011 .

[20]  B. Christiansen,et al.  Reply to “Comments on ‘Reconstruction of the Extratropical NH Mean Temperature over the Last Millennium with a Method That Preserves Low-Frequency Variability’” , 2011 .

[21]  E. Xoplaki,et al.  Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Climate in Medieval Times Revisited , 2011 .

[22]  Jared Rennie,et al.  An overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network monthly mean temperature data set, version 3 , 2011 .

[23]  P. Krusic,et al.  Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns in the last 12 centuries , 2011 .

[24]  Caspar M. Ammann,et al.  Support for global climate reorganization during the “Medieval Climate Anomaly” , 2011 .

[25]  Jed O. Kaplan,et al.  Holocene carbon emissions as a result of anthropogenic land cover change , 2011 .

[26]  Georg Feulner,et al.  Are the most recent estimates for Maunder Minimum solar irradiance in agreement with temperature reconstructions? , 2011 .

[27]  Leon D. Rotstayn,et al.  The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1.0 – Part 1: Description and evaluation , 2011 .

[28]  Eduardo Zorita,et al.  Spatial performance of four climate field reconstruction methods targeting the Common Era , 2011 .

[29]  A. Voldoire,et al.  Natural forcing of climate during the last millennium: fingerprint of solar variability , 2011 .

[30]  R. Blender,et al.  Temperature variability in China in an ensemble simulation for the last 1,200 years , 2011 .

[31]  Christoph C. Raible,et al.  Medieval climate anomaly to little ice age transition as simulated by current climate models , 2011 .

[32]  E. Rozanov,et al.  A new approach to the long-term reconstruction of the solar irradiance leads to large historical solar forcing , 2011, 1102.4763.

[33]  B. Christiansen Reply to ''Comments on 'Reconstructing the NH Mean Temperature: Can Underestimation of Trends and Variability be Avoided?''' , 2011 .

[34]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Influence of human and natural forcing on European seasonal temperatures , 2011 .

[35]  Caspar M. Ammann,et al.  Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0) , 2011 .

[36]  J. Oerlemans,et al.  Global and hemispheric temperature reconstruction from glacier length fluctuations , 2010, Climate Dynamics.

[37]  Kees Klein Goldewijk,et al.  The HYDE 3.1 spatially explicit database of human‐induced global land‐use change over the past 12,000 years , 2011 .

[38]  Heinrich Widmann,et al.  Climate and carbon-cycle variability over the last millennium , 2010 .

[39]  Jerald W. Harder,et al.  An influence of solar spectral variations on radiative forcing of climate , 2010, Nature.

[40]  Helge Drange,et al.  External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability , 2010 .

[41]  F. Ljungqvist A new reconstruction of temperature variability in the extra‐tropical northern hemisphere during the last two millennia , 2010 .

[42]  D. Nychka,et al.  The Value of Multiproxy Reconstruction of Past Climate , 2010 .

[43]  P. Yiou,et al.  Influence of solar variability, CO 2 and orbital forcing between 1000 and 1850 AD in the IPSLCM4 model , 2010 .

[44]  T. Stocker,et al.  Variations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in control and transient simulations of the last millennium , 2010 .

[45]  W. Landman Climate change 2007: the physical science basis , 2010 .

[46]  A. Timmermann,et al.  The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño , 2010 .

[47]  Peter John Huybers,et al.  A Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time. Part II: Comparison with the Regularized Expectation–Maximization Algorithm , 2010 .

[48]  Peter John Huybers,et al.  A Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time. Part I: Development and Applications to Paleoclimate Reconstruction Problems , 2010 .

[49]  Thomas Raddatz,et al.  Biogeophysical versus biogeochemical climate response to historical anthropogenic land cover change , 2010 .

[50]  G. Meehl,et al.  Solar Influence on Climate , 2010 .

[51]  K. Fraedrich,et al.  Climate Variability in China in an Ensemble Simulation for the last 1200 years , 2010 .

[52]  G. Faluvegi,et al.  Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly , 2009, Science.

[53]  C. Fröhlich,et al.  Total solar irradiance during the Holocene , 2009 .

[54]  Martijn Gough Climate change , 2009, Canadian Medical Association Journal.

[55]  J. Overpeck,et al.  Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling , 2009, Science.

[56]  Mike Lockwood,et al.  SOLAR INFLUENCES ON CLIMATE , 2009 .

[57]  N. Graham,et al.  Persistent Positive North Atlantic Oscillation Mode Dominated the Medieval Climate Anomaly , 2009, Science.

[58]  K. Trenberth,et al.  Earth's Global Energy Budget , 2009 .

[59]  Bo Christiansen,et al.  A Surrogate Ensemble Study of Climate Reconstruction Methods: Stochasticity and Robustness , 2009 .

[60]  E. Mosley‐Thompson,et al.  High-resolution palaeoclimatology of the last millennium: a review of current status and future prospects , 2009 .

[61]  M. Claussen,et al.  Radiative forcing from anthropogenic land cover change since A.D. 800 , 2009 .

[62]  S. Solanki,et al.  Models of solar irradiance variations: Current status , 2008 .

[63]  M. Hughes,et al.  Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[64]  Thomas Raddatz,et al.  A reconstruction of global agricultural areas and land cover for the last millennium , 2008 .

[65]  Shaopeng Huang,et al.  A late Quaternary climate reconstruction based on borehole heat flux data, borehole temperature data, and the instrumental record , 2008 .

[66]  R. Garcia,et al.  A Chronology of El Niño Events from Primary Documentary Sources in Northern Peru , 2008 .

[67]  T. Crowley,et al.  Volcanism and the Little Ice Age , 2008 .

[68]  David Frank,et al.  Long-term summer temperature variations in the Pyrenees , 2008 .

[69]  F. Joos,et al.  Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20,000 years , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[70]  Eduardo Zorita,et al.  Borehole climatology: a discussion based on contributions from climate modeling , 2008 .

[71]  J. McCulloch,et al.  Correction to: A 2000-Year Global Temperature Reconstruction Based on Non-Tree Ring Proxies , 2008 .

[72]  C. Loehle A 2000-Year Global Temperature Reconstruction Based on Non-Treering Proxies , 2007 .

[73]  N. Graham,et al.  Blueprints for Medieval hydroclimate , 2007 .

[74]  R. Betts,et al.  Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing. Chapter 2 , 2007 .

[75]  E. Cook,et al.  Adjustment for proxy number and coherence in a large‐scale temperature reconstruction , 2007 .

[76]  Eugene R. Wahl,et al.  The importance of the geophysical context in statistical evaluations of climate reconstruction procedures , 2007 .

[77]  S. Solanki,et al.  Grand minima and maxima of solar activity: new observational constraints , 2007, 0706.0385.

[78]  S. Solanki,et al.  Reconstruction of solar total irradiance since 1700 from the surface magnetic flux , 2007 .

[79]  M. Mann,et al.  Climate Over the Past Two Millennia , 2007 .

[80]  M. Widmann,et al.  Transient simulations, empirical reconstructions and forcing mechanisms for the Mid-holocene hydrological climate in southern Patagonia , 2007 .

[81]  F. Joos,et al.  Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[82]  Eduardo Zorita,et al.  European climate response to tropical volcanic eruptions over the last half millennium , 2007 .

[83]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Detection of Human Influence on a New, Validated 1500-Year Temperature Reconstruction , 2007 .

[84]  L. Hinzman,et al.  Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground , 2007 .

[85]  S. Solomon The Physical Science Basis : Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007 .

[86]  K. Trenberth,et al.  Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change , 2007 .

[87]  W. Collins,et al.  Global climate projections , 2007 .

[88]  H. L. Miller,et al.  Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis , 2007 .

[89]  Stefano Schiavon,et al.  Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. , 2007 .

[90]  A. Robock,et al.  Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: An improved ice core-based index for climate models , 2006 .

[91]  Anders Moberg,et al.  Millennial temperature reconstruction intercomparison and evaluation , 2006 .

[92]  E. Zorita,et al.  Progress in Paleoclimate Modeling , 2006 .

[93]  Jonathan M. Gregory,et al.  The impact of natural and anthropogenic forcings on climate and hydrology since 1550 , 2006 .

[94]  Axel Timmermann,et al.  under a Creative Commons License. Climate of the Past The origin of the European “Medieval Warm Period ” ∗ , 2006 .

[95]  Michel Crucifix,et al.  Does the Last Glacial Maximum constrain climate sensitivity? , 2006 .

[96]  Malcolm K. Hughes,et al.  A forward modeling approach to paleoclimatic interpretation of tree‐ring data , 2006 .

[97]  Gerald R. North,et al.  Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 1000 Years , 2006 .

[98]  B. Soden,et al.  An Assessment of Climate Feedbacks in Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Models , 2006 .

[99]  Paul Steele,et al.  Law Dome CO2, CH4 and N2O ice core records extended to 2000 years BP , 2006 .

[100]  P. Jones,et al.  Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850 , 2006 .

[101]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries , 2006, Nature.

[102]  S. Raper,et al.  Simulated climate change during the last 1,000 years: comparing the ECHO-G general circulation model with the MAGICC simple climate model , 2006 .

[103]  Axel Timmermann,et al.  Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select optimal realisations in an ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium , 2006 .

[104]  G. Jacoby,et al.  On the long‐term context for late twentieth century warming , 2006 .

[105]  Eduardo Zorita,et al.  Simulation and inversion of borehole temperature profiles in surrogate climates: Spatial distribution and surface coupling , 2006 .

[106]  U. Cubasch,et al.  Climate reconstruction by regression – 32 variations on a theme , 2006 .

[107]  D. Etheridge,et al.  Law Dome CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O ice core records extended to 2000 years , 2006 .

[108]  Jesper Heile Christensen,et al.  Influence of various forcings on global climate in historical times using a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model , 2006 .

[109]  Gerd Bürger,et al.  Are multiproxy climate reconstructions robust? , 2005 .

[110]  Reto Knutti,et al.  Probabilistic climate change projections for CO2 stabilization profiles , 2005 .

[111]  Malcolm K. Hughes,et al.  Proxy-Based Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Reconstructions: Sensitivity to Method, Predictor Network, Target Season, and Target Domain , 2005 .

[112]  J. Lean,et al.  Modeling the Sun’s Magnetic Field and Irradiance since 1713 , 2005 .

[113]  B. Santer,et al.  Effect of climate sensitivity on the Response to Volcanic Forcing , 2005 .

[114]  J. Oerlemans Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records , 2005, Science.

[115]  Francisco P. J. Valero,et al.  Natural and anthropogenic modes of surface temperature variations in the last thousand years , 2005 .

[116]  Eduardo Zorita,et al.  Modelling the climate of the last millennium: What causes the differences between simulations? , 2005 .

[117]  K. Holmgren,et al.  Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data , 2005, Nature.

[118]  Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg Climate reconstruction by regression – 32 variations on a theme , 2005 .

[119]  Jacques Laskar,et al.  A long-term numerical solution for the insolation quantities of the Earth , 2004 .

[120]  S. Solanki,et al.  Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years , 2004, Nature.

[121]  S. Solanki,et al.  Solar Irradiance Variations: From Current Measurements to Long-Term Estimates , 2004 .

[122]  T. Wigley,et al.  A Stellar View on Solar Variations and Climate , 2004, Science.

[123]  Andrey Ganopolski,et al.  Simulation of the cold climate event 8200 years ago by meltwater outburst from Lake Agassiz , 2004 .

[124]  Shaopeng Huang Merging information from different resources for new insights into climate change in the past and future , 2004 .

[125]  Michael E. Mann,et al.  Climate over past millennia , 2004 .

[126]  H. Wanner,et al.  European Seasonal and Annual Temperature Variability, Trends, and Extremes Since 1500 , 2004, Science.

[127]  H. Storch,et al.  The Climate in Historical Times , 2004 .

[128]  H. Fischer The climate in historical times : towards a synthesis of Holocene proxy data and climate models , 2004 .

[129]  H. Storch A Discourse About Quasi-realistic Climate Models and Their Applications in Paleoclimatic Studies , 2004 .

[130]  J. Smerdon,et al.  Borehole climate reconstructions: Spatial structure and hemispheric averages , 2003 .

[131]  M. Widmann,et al.  Instrument- and Tree-Ring-Based Estimates of the Antarctic Oscillation , 2003 .

[132]  E. Zorita,et al.  Deep soil temperature as proxy for surface air‐temperature in a coupled model simulation of the last thousand years , 2003 .

[133]  kwang-yul kim,et al.  Modeling ocean heat content changes during the last millennium , 2003 .

[134]  Charles S. Zender,et al.  A monthly and latitudinally varying volcanic forcing dataset in simulations of 20th century climate , 2003 .

[135]  Victor Brovkin,et al.  Assessing climate forcings of the Earth system for the past millennium , 2003 .

[136]  John F. B. Mitchell,et al.  Anthropogenic climate change for 1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model under updated emissions scenarios , 2003 .

[137]  J. Lean,et al.  The effect of increasing solar activity on the Sun's total and open magnetic flux during multiple cycles: Implications for solar forcing of climate , 2002 .

[138]  Larry W. Thomason,et al.  Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations , 2002 .

[139]  Edward R. Cook,et al.  Low-Frequency Signals in Long Tree-Ring Chronologies for Reconstructing Past Temperature Variability , 2002, Science.

[140]  H. Wanner,et al.  Reconstruction of sea level pressure fields over the Eastern North Atlantic and Europe back to 1500 , 2002 .

[141]  T. Stocker,et al.  High‐resolution Holocene N2O ice core record and its relationship with CH4 and CO2 , 2002 .

[142]  J. Houghton,et al.  Climate change 2001 : the scientific basis , 2001 .

[143]  A. Waple,et al.  Solar Forcing of Regional Climate Change During the Maunder Minimum , 2001, Science.

[144]  K. K. Goldewijk Estimating global land use change over the past 300 years: The HYDE Database , 2001 .

[145]  P. Jones,et al.  The Evolution of Climate Over the Last Millennium , 2001, Science.

[146]  P. Jones,et al.  Low-frequency temperature variations from a northern tree ring density , 2001 .

[147]  Tom M. L. Wigley,et al.  Climates of the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries Simulated by the NCAR Climate System Model , 2001 .

[148]  Crowley,et al.  Atmospheric science: Methane rises from wetlands , 2011, Nature.

[149]  A. Robock Volcanic eruptions and climate , 2000 .

[150]  Shaopeng Huang,et al.  Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures , 2000, Nature.

[151]  J. Jouzel,et al.  Solar irradiance during the last 1200 years based on cosmogenic nuclides , 2000 .

[152]  N. Ramankutty,et al.  Estimating historical changes in global land cover: Croplands from 1700 to 1992 , 1999 .

[153]  M. Hughes,et al.  Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations , 1999 .

[154]  D. Etheridge,et al.  Atmospheric methane between 1000 A.D. and present: Evidence of anthropogenic emissions and climatic variability , 1998 .

[155]  G. Myhre,et al.  New estimates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases , 1998 .

[156]  F. H. Schweingruber,et al.  Influence of volcanic eruptions on Northern Hemisphere summer temperature over the past 600 years , 1998, Nature.

[157]  T. P. Barnett,et al.  High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium: interpretation, integration and comparison with General Circulation Model control-run temperatures , 1998 .

[158]  P. M. Lang,et al.  Atmospheric gas concentrations over the past century measured in air from firn at the South Pole , 1996, Nature.

[159]  D. Etheridge,et al.  Natural and anthropogenic changes in atmospheric CO2 over the last 1000 years from air in Antarctic ice and firn , 1996 .

[160]  J. Lean,et al.  Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change , 1995 .

[161]  J. Chappellaz,et al.  Variations in atmospheric methane concentration during the Holocene epoch , 1995, Nature.

[162]  Douglas V. Hoyt,et al.  A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations, 1700-1992 , 1993 .

[163]  H. Storch Inconsistencies at the interface of climate impact studies and global climate research , 1992 .

[164]  André Berger,et al.  Insolation values for the climate of the last 10 , 1991 .

[165]  D. Gilbert Global warming , 1990, Nature.

[166]  P. Bretagnon,et al.  Planetary Theories in rectangular and spherical variables: VSOP87 solution. , 1988 .

[167]  A. Henderson‐sellers,et al.  A global archive of land cover and soils data for use in general circulation climate models , 1985 .

[168]  J. Peixoto,et al.  Physics of climate , 1984 .

[169]  S. Idso Carbon dioxide and climate. , 1980, Science.

[170]  André Berger,et al.  Long-term variations of daily insolation and Quaternary climatic changes , 1978 .

[171]  C. Chatfield,et al.  Fourier Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction , 1977, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[172]  E. Lorenz Deterministic nonperiodic flow , 1963 .

[173]  G. Plass Carbon dioxide and climate. , 1959, Scientific American.