How Censorship in China Allows Government Criticism but Silences Collective Expression

We offer the first large scale, multiple source analysis of the outcome of what may be the most extensive effort to selectively censor human expression ever implemented. To do this, we have devised a system to locate, download, and analyze the content of millions of social media posts originating from nearly 1,400 different social media services all over China before the Chinese government is able to find, evaluate, and censor (i.e., remove from the Internet) the subset they deem objectionable. Using modern computer-assisted text analytic methods that we adapt to and validate in the Chinese language, we compare the substantive content of posts censored to those not censored over time in each of 85 topic areas. Contrary to previous understandings, posts with negative, even vitriolic, criticism of the state, its leaders, and its policies are not more likely to be censored. Instead, we show that the censorship program is aimed at curtailing collective action by silencing comments that represent, reinforce, or spur social mobilization, regardless of content. Censorship is oriented toward attempting to forestall collective activities that are occurring now or may occur in the future—and, as such, seem to clearly expose government intent.

[1]  D. Bogen The Freedom of the Press , 2011 .

[2]  D. Charles The Dismissal of Marshal P'eng Teh-huai , 1961, The China Quarterly.

[3]  Roderick Macfarquhar,et al.  China Under Mao: Politics Takes Command , 1968 .

[4]  F. Schurmann Ideology and Organization in Communist China , 2023 .

[5]  Duncan Wilson The Origins of the Cultural Revolution. 1: Contradictions among the People 1956–1957 , 1974 .

[6]  Roderick MacFarquhar,et al.  The Origins of the Cultural Revolution: Vol. 2, The Great Leap Forward 1958-1960. , 1974 .

[7]  Roderick Macfarquhar The origins of the Cultural Revolution , 1974 .

[8]  Frederick R. Forst,et al.  On robust estimation of the location parameter , 1980 .

[9]  Elite Conflict in the Post-Mao China , 1981 .

[10]  T. G. Ash,et al.  The Polish Revolution: Solidarity , 1983 .

[11]  Peter J. Rousseeuw,et al.  Robust regression and outlier detection , 1987 .

[12]  Peter J. Rousseeuw,et al.  Robust Regression and Outlier Detection , 2005, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics.

[13]  T. Kuran Sparks and prairie fires: A theory of unanticipated political revolution , 1989 .

[14]  R. Putnam The Prosperous Community: Social Capital and Public Life , 1993 .

[15]  S. Lohmann The Dynamics of Informational Cascades: The Monday Demonstrations in Leipzig, East Germany, 1989–91 , 1994, World Politics.

[16]  P. Zak,et al.  Trust and Growth , 2001 .

[17]  Michael E. Alvarez,et al.  Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950–1990 , 2000 .

[18]  Fen-ling Chen Subsistence Crises, Managerial Corruption and Labour Protests in China , 2000, The China Journal.

[19]  Susanne Lohmann,et al.  Collective Action Cascades: An Informational Rationale for the Power in Numbers , 2000 .

[20]  Gary King,et al.  Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data , 2001, Political Analysis.

[21]  Andrew J. Nathan The Tiananmen Papers , 2001 .

[22]  Yong Shun Cai,et al.  The Resistance of Chinese Laid-off Workers in the Reform Period , 2002, The China Quarterly.

[23]  F. Lizhi,et al.  The Tiananmen Papers , 2002 .

[24]  S. Gunaratne Freedom of the Press , 2002 .

[25]  M. Blecher Hegemony and Workers' Politics in China , 2002, The China Quarterly.

[26]  M. Edin State Capacity and Local Agent Control in China: CCP Cadre Management from a Township Perspective , 2003, The China Quarterly.

[27]  E. J. Perry,et al.  Challenging the Mandate of Heaven: Social Protest and State Power in China , 2002, The Journal of Asian Studies.

[28]  Kevin J. O'Brien,et al.  Rightful Resistance in Rural China , 2006 .

[29]  Qingru Duan China's IT Leadership , 2007 .

[30]  Victor C. Shih Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation , 2007 .

[31]  Kellee S. Tsai Capitalism without Democracy: The Private Sector in Contemporary China , 2007 .

[32]  Min Tang China: Fragile Superpower: How China's Internal Politics Could Derail Its Peaceful Rise , 2007 .

[33]  C. Edmond Information Manipulation, Coordination and Regime Change , 2007 .

[34]  Andrew J. Nathan AUTHORITARIAN RESILIENCE , 2007 .

[35]  Kevin J. O'Brien,et al.  Popular Protest in China , 2008 .

[36]  Xiao Qiang,et al.  Political Expression in the Chinese Blogosphere: Below the Radar , 2008 .

[37]  The Resilient Authoritarians , 2008 .

[38]  Yong Shun Cai,et al.  Against the Law: Labor Protests in China's Rustbelt and Sunbelt , 2009 .

[39]  S. Guriev,et al.  Why Resource-poor Dictators Allow Freer Media: A Theory and Evidence from Panel Data , 2009, American Political Science Review.

[40]  Gary King,et al.  Quantitative Discovery from Qualitative Information: A General-Purpose Document Clustering Methodology , 2009 .

[41]  Gang Guo,et al.  China's Local Political Budget Cycles , 2009 .

[42]  L. Li Accountability without Democracy: Solidary Groups and Public Goods Provision in Rural China , 2009 .

[43]  Gary King,et al.  Improving Anchoring Vignettes Designing Surveys to Correct Interpersonal Incomparability , 2010 .

[44]  Joseph Fewsmith China today, China tomorrow : domestic politics, economy, and society , 2010 .

[45]  Santo Fortunato,et al.  Traffic in Social Media II: Modeling Bursty Popularity , 2010, 2010 IEEE Second International Conference on Social Computing.

[46]  C. Hawes The Power of the Internet in China: Citizen Activism Online , 2010 .

[47]  Gary King,et al.  A Method of Automated Nonparametric Content Analysis for Social Science , 2010 .

[48]  J. Kung,et al.  The Tragedy of the Nomenklatura: Career Incentives and Political Radicalism during China's Great Leap Famine , 2010, American Political Science Review.

[49]  Peter Marolt Grassroots agency in a civil sphere? Rethinking Internet control in China , 2011 .

[50]  Q. Xiao,et al.  Digital Communication and Political Change in China , 2011 .

[51]  Silvia Lindtner,et al.  China’s many Internets: participation and digital game play across a changing technology landscape , 2011 .

[52]  The Internet police in China: regulation, scope and myths , 2011 .

[53]  James Reilly,et al.  Strong Society, Smart State: The Rise of Public Opinion in China's Japan Policy , 2011 .

[54]  Xi Chen Social Protest and Contentious Authoritarianism in China , 2011 .

[55]  Sida Liu Myth of the Social Volcano: Perceptions of Inequality and Distributive Injustice in Contemporary China , 2011 .

[56]  David Kurt Herold,et al.  Online Society in China : Creating, celebrating, and instrumentalising the online carnival , 2011 .

[57]  Gary King,et al.  General purpose computer-assisted clustering and conceptualization , 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[58]  J. Polumbaum Changing Media, Changing China , 2012 .

[59]  Brendan T. O'Connor,et al.  Censorship and deletion practices in Chinese social media , 2012, First Monday.

[60]  Eva Bellin,et al.  Reconsidering the Robustness of Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Lessons from the Arab Spring , 2012 .

[61]  R. García CONSENT OF THE NETWORKED. The Worldwide Struggle for Internet Freedom , 2012 .

[62]  Peter Lorentzen Regularizing Rioting: Permitting Public Protest in an Authoritarian Regime , 2013 .

[63]  Kristin L. Sainani,et al.  Logistic Regression , 2014, PM & R : the journal of injury, function, and rehabilitation.

[64]  Jstor The American political science review , 2022 .