Alien forest insects in a warmer world and a globalised economy: impacts of changes in trade, tourism and climate on forest biosecurity.

This paper examines the effects of changing world trends on the introduction, establishment and spread of exotic insects associated with woody plants. Three aspects are considered: (i) commercial trade; (ii) tourism and consumer behaviour; and (iii) climate change. The current literature indicates that there are two key pest pathways: movement of wood ( (including solid-wood packaging), and the ornamental plant trade. The number of pests introduced along these routes is positively correlated with the volume and source of imports. It is likely, therefore, that improvements in regulation of the movement of wood will lead to a decrease in pest entry via this pathway. However, complexities associated with the ornamental plant trade will ensure that it remains a high risk route. There is evidence to suggest that numbers of interceptions at airports are positively related to the volume of air traffic from the countries from which passengers originate. Shifts in climatic conditions are likely to affect the survival, fecundity, development and dispersal of native insect species. However, it is difficult to entirely disentangle the effect of climate change from that of other physical or chemical factors, and/or other biotic causes. Improved monitoring of imports/exports, more knowledge about possible pests, and the impacts of climate change are needed to prevent the arrival of foreign pests in the future.