Predictive Maintenance Using the Rotordynamic Model of a Hydraulic Turbine-Generator Rotor

A use of rotordynamic models in predictive maintenance is described in which variables characterizing the state of a deterioration mechanism are determined from online measurements. These variables are trended to determine the rate of deterioration and to perform a simulation to predict either the machine life or the maintenance period. Some useful terms for using models in predictive maintenance are defined and the prediction procedure is described. The procedure is demonstrated with a simple two degree-of-freedom example and the numerical model of an actual hydraulic turbine-generator rotor. Some benefits and problems associated with the implementation of the procedure are then discussed. It is considered that this procedure brings the possibility of a better understanding of deterioration processes and a resulting better life prediction.