New Method for Accident Causation Analysis of Complex Socio-technical Systems

With the increasing structural complexity of complex socio-technical systems, which becomes also increasingly difficult to predict the catastrophic accident, the reason should be the existing accident causation theory incapable of modern complex systems accident analysis, spurned the system physical structure, based on perspective of large-scale systems theory, extracted accident causation factors from flaws of large systems, built the accident system model to simulate the cross-layer risk emergence by Arena software, the simulation results showed that the cross-layer risk emergence is a high-dimensional nonlinear growth process.