A heuristic elimination method for optimum selection of alternatives through simulation

This paper presents a technique for selecting an optimum alternative from among a limited set of possible alternatives. The method presented is an algorithmic successive-elimination procedure which uses simulation to measure the "cost" of each alter native. The algorithm requires the calculation of estimates of confidence intervals of the mean "cost" for each alternative after each replication of the simulation. By comparing the confidence limits and "costs" for each alternative after each replication, one or more alternatives may be elim inated from consideration. The procedure ends when only one alternative remains or when the criteria used indicate that further analysis would be uneconomical.