Decision Theory and Artificial Intelligence II: The Hungry Monkey

This paper describes a problem-solving framework in which aspects of mathematical decision theory are incorporated into symbolic problem-solving techniques currently predominant in artificial intelligence. The utility function of decision theory is used to reveal tradeoffs among competing strategies for achieving various goals, taking into account such factors as reliability, the complexity of steps in the strategy, and the value of the goal. The utility function on strategies can therefore be used as a guide when searching for good strategies. It is also used to formulate solutions to the problems of how to acquire a world model, how much planning effort is worthwhile, and whether verification tests should be performed. These techniques are illustrated by application to the classic monkey and bananas problem.

[1]  Allen Newell,et al.  Chess-Playing Programs and the Problem of Complexity , 1958, IBM J. Res. Dev..

[2]  Arthur L. Samuel,et al.  Some Studies in Machine Learning Using the Game of Checkers , 1967, IBM J. Res. Dev..

[3]  H. Chernoff,et al.  Elementary Decision Theory , 1959 .

[4]  E. L. Lawler,et al.  Branch-and-Bound Methods: A Survey , 1966, Oper. Res..

[5]  A. V. Napalkov,et al.  COMPUTERS AND THOUGHT, EDITED BY E. A. FEIGENBAUM AND J. FELDMAN, NEW YORK, MCGRAW-HILL, 1963: BOOK REVIEW, , 1967 .

[6]  A. L. Samuel,et al.  Some studies in machine learning using the game of checkers. II: recent progress , 1967 .

[7]  James E. Matheson,et al.  The Economic Value of Analysis and Computation , 1968, IEEE Trans. Syst. Sci. Cybern..

[8]  Nils J. Nilsson,et al.  A Formal Basis for the Heuristic Determination of Minimum Cost Paths , 1968, IEEE Trans. Syst. Sci. Cybern..

[9]  A. L. Samuel,et al.  Some Studies in Machine Learning Using the Game of Checkers , 1967, IBM J. Res. Dev..

[10]  M. Degroot.  Optimal Statistical Decisions , 1970 .

[11]  H. V. Roberts.  Book Review:Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty. Howard Raiffa , 1970 .

[12]  Richard C. T. Lee,et al.  Application of game tree searching techniques to sequential pattern recognition , 1971, CACM.

[13]  John H. Munson.  Robot Planning, Execution, and Monitoring in an Uncertain Environment , 1971, IJCAI.

[14]  Nils J. Nilsson,et al.  Problem-solving methods in artificial intelligence , 1971, McGraw-Hill computer science series.

[15]  Richard Fikes,et al.  STRIPS: A New Approach to the Application of Theorem Proving to Problem Solving , 1971, IJCAI.

[16]  H. Raiffa,et al.  Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices under Uncertainty , 1971 .

[17]  Jerome A. Feldman,et al.  Recent developments in SAIL: an ALGOL-based language for artificial intelligence , 1972, AFIPS '72 (Fall, part II).

[18]  John M. Cozzolino,et al.  Sequential Search for an Unknown Number of Objects of Nonuniform Size , 1972, Oper. Res..

[19]  Richard J. Waldinger,et al.  QA4: A Procedural Calculus for Intuitive Reasoning. , 1972 .

[20]  Ira Pohl,et al.  The Avoidance of (Relative) Catastrophe, Heuristic Competence, Genuine Dynamic Weighting and Computational Issues in Heuristic Problem Solving , 1973, IJCAI.

[21]  Ann E. Robinson,et al.  A Parser for a Speech Understanding System , 1973, IJCAI.

[22]  Gunnar Rutger Grape.  Model based (intermediate-level) computer-vision , 1973 .

[23]  Earl D. Sacerdott.  Planning in a hierarchy of abstraction spaces , 1973, IJCAI 1973.

[24]  Jay M. Tenenbaum.  On locating objects by their distinguishing features in multisensory images , 1973, Comput. Graph. Image Process..

[25]  Scott E. Fahlman,et al.  A Planning System for Robot Construction Tasks , 1973, Artif. Intell..

[26]  Elizabeth C. Hirschman,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[27]  Daniel G. Bobrow,et al.  New Programming Languages for Artificial Intelligence Research , 1974, CSUR.

[28]  Jerome A. Feldman,et al.  Decision Theory and Artificial Intelligence: I. A Semantics-Based Region Analyzer , 1974, Artif. Intell..

[29]  Edward H. Shortliffe,et al.  A rule-based computer program for advising physicians regarding antimicrobial therapy selection , 1974, ACM '74.

[30]  Nils J. Nilsson,et al.  Artificial Intelligence , 1974, IFIP Congress.

[31]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[32]  W. Woods,et al.  Motivation and overview of SPEECHLIS: An experimental prototype for speech understanding research , 1975 .

[33]  J. Kassirer,et al.  Therapeutic decision making: a cost-benefit analysis. , 1975, The New England journal of medicine.

[34]  Daniel G. Bobrow,et al.  On Overview of KRL, a Knowledge Representation Language , 1976, Cogn. Sci..

[35]  Robert Fletcher Sproull,et al.  Strategy construction using a synthesis of heuristic and decision-theoretic methods , 1977 .

[36]  Richard Fikes.  Knowledge Representation in Automatic Planning Systems , 1977 .

[37]  Earl David Sacerdoti,et al.  A Structure for Plans and Behavior , 1977 .