Construction of European forest land use scenarios for the 21st century

........................................................................................... 3 Abbreviations .................................................................................................................. 6 1 Background ................................................................................... 7 1.1 Definitions ................................................................................................................. 7 1.2 Land use change scenario methodology............................................................. 10 2 Forest land use change variables................................................. 12 2.1 Underlying driving forces of forest land use change ....................................... 12 2.1.1 Population ............................................................................................................. 12 2.1.2 Economic growth ................................................................................................. 13 2.1.2 Political and cultural factors .............................................................................. 13 2.2 Other factors influencing forest land use........................................................... 14 2.2.1 Changes in agricultural production ................................................................. 14 2.2.2 Location of the new forests ................................................................................ 15 2.2.3 Ecological and general socio-economic factors .............................................. 15 2.2.4 Summary of factors influencing forest land use change .............................. 16 3 Scenario storylines ......................................................................19 3.1 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) ................................................ 19 3.2 Global driving forces ............................................................................................. 20 3.2.1 The A1 storyline ................................................................................................... 20 3.2.2 The A2 storyline ................................................................................................... 20 3.2.3 The B1 storyline ................................................................................................... 21 3.2.4 The B2 storyline ................................................................................................... 22 3.3 European forest sector driving forces ................................................................. 23 3.3.1 Present situation .................................................................................................. 23 3.3.2 Social change in SRES narratives ..................................................................... 24 3.3.3 Forest land use change in an A1 Europe.......................................................... 24 3.3.4 Forest land use change in an A2 Europe.......................................................... 25 3.3.5 Forest land use change in a B1 Europe............................................................. 26 3.3.6 Forest land use change in a B2 Europe............................................................. 27 3.3.7 Summary of the scenario storylines for Europe ............................................. 27 4 Estimation of forest land use change in Europe..........................29 4.1 Construction of estimates ...................................................................................... 29 4.1.1 Preamble ................................................................................................................ 29 4.1.2 Country groups .................................................................................................... 30 4.1.3 Assumptions ......................................................................................................... 30 4.2 Forest land use change in 2020-2100 .................................................................... 32 4.3 Discussion ................................................................................................................ 36 5 Acknowledgements .....................................................................39 References ......................................................................................40 Appendix ........................................................................................43 Documentation pages .................................................................... 55