Variable Weight Combination Method for Mid-long Term Power Load Forecasting Based on Hierarchical Structure

A new variable weight combination method for mid-long term power load forecasting based on hierarchical structure is presented.According to the idea of analytic hierarchy process,a hierarchical structure for determining combined weights was constructed: entropy method was introduced to ascertain the weights of model-evaluation indexes;variance-covariance optimization combination method and grey relational analysis were used to ascertain the weights of each single model under each evaluation index respectively,and determine the combined weights of combination forecasting model finally.In the whole process of combination forecasting,equal dimension information was introduced according to the "inertia principle" of load development,thus achieved variable weight combination forecasting,and forecasting results reasonably reflect the development law of power load.At last,the reliability was validated by an actual example.