Evaluating Model Simulations of Twentieth-Century Sea-Level Rise. Part II: Regional Sea-Level Changes

AbstractTwentieth-century regional sea level changes are estimated from 12 climate models from phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The output of the CMIP5 climate model simulations was used to calculate the global and regional sea level changes associated with dynamic sea level, atmospheric loading, glacier mass changes, and ice sheet surface mass balance contributions. The contribution from groundwater depletion, reservoir storage, and dynamic ice sheet mass changes are estimated from observations as they are not simulated by climate models. All contributions are summed, including the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) contribution, and compared to observational estimates from 27 tide gauge records over the twentieth century (1900–2015). A general agreement is found between the simulated sea level and tide gauge records in terms of interannual to multidecadal variability over 1900–2015. But climate models tend to systematically underestimate the observed sea level trends, partic...

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