Simulation approaches to probabilistic structural design at the component level

Abstract In this paper, structural failure of large nuclear components is viewed as a random process with a low probability of occurrence. Therefore, a statistical interpretation of probability does not apply and statistical inferences cannot be made due to the sparcity of actual structural failure data. In such cases, analytical estimates of the failure probabilities may be obtained from stress-strength interference theory. Since the majority of real design applications are complex, numerical methods are required to obtain solutions. Monte Carlo simulation appears to be the best general numerical approach. However, meaning-ful applications of simulation methods suggest research activities in three categories: methods development, failure mode models development, and statistical data models development.