An Adversarial Approach to Structural Estimation

We propose a new simulation-based estimation method, adversarial estimation, for structural models. The estimator is formulated as the solution to a minimax problem between a generator (which generates synthetic observations using the structural model) and a discriminator (which classifies if an observation is synthetic). The discriminator maximizes the accuracy of its classification while the generator minimizes it. We show that, with a sufficiently rich discriminator, the adversarial estimator attains parametric efficiency under correct specification and the parametric rate under misspecification. We advocate the use of a neural network as a discriminator that can exploit adaptivity properties and attain fast rates of convergence. We apply our method to the elderly's saving decision model and show that including gender and health profiles in the discriminator uncovers the bequest motive as an important source of saving across the wealth distribution, not only for the rich.

[1]  Dmitry Yarotsky,et al.  Error bounds for approximations with deep ReLU networks , 2016, Neural Networks.

[2]  A. Gallant,et al.  Which Moments to Match? , 1995, Econometric Theory.

[3]  K. Mcgarry Inter Vivos Transfers and Intended Bequests , 1997 .

[4]  Peter L. Bartlett,et al.  Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension of neural nets , 2003 .

[5]  Martin A. Riedmiller,et al.  A direct adaptive method for faster backpropagation learning: the RPROP algorithm , 1993, IEEE International Conference on Neural Networks.

[6]  Francis R. Bach,et al.  Breaking the Curse of Dimensionality with Convex Neural Networks , 2014, J. Mach. Learn. Res..

[7]  Kevin Leyton-Brown,et al.  Deep IV: A Flexible Approach for Counterfactual Prediction , 2017, ICML.

[8]  H. Jankowski Convergence of linear functionals of the Grenander estimator under misspecification , 2012, 1207.6614.

[9]  A. V. D. Vaart,et al.  Convergence rates of posterior distributions , 2000 .

[10]  Christian Gourieroux,et al.  Indirect Inference for Dynamic Panel Models , 2006 .

[11]  Jean-Jacques Forneron,et al.  The ABC of simulation estimation with auxiliary statistics , 2015, Journal of Econometrics.

[12]  M. Kohler,et al.  On deep learning as a remedy for the curse of dimensionality in nonparametric regression , 2019, The Annals of Statistics.

[13]  Yoshua Bengio,et al.  Generative Adversarial Nets , 2014, NIPS.

[14]  Dan Zhu,et al.  Indirect inference with a non-smooth criterion function , 2017 .

[15]  Xiaohong Chen Chapter 76 Large Sample Sieve Estimation of Semi-Nonparametric Models , 2007 .

[16]  Peter L. Bartlett,et al.  Nearly-tight VC-dimension and Pseudodimension Bounds for Piecewise Linear Neural Networks , 2017, J. Mach. Learn. Res..

[17]  Guido Imbens,et al.  Using Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Networks for the Design of Monte Carlo Simulations , 2019, Journal of Econometrics.

[18]  Van Der Vaart,et al.  The Bernstein-Von-Mises theorem under misspecification , 2012 .

[19]  Joseph G. Altonji,et al.  Small Sample Bias in GMM Estimation of Covariance Structures , 1994 .

[20]  W. Kopczuk Bequest and Tax Planning: Evidence from Estate Tax Returns , 2006 .

[21]  Y. Nesterov A method for solving the convex programming problem with convergence rate O(1/k^2) , 1983 .

[22]  Halbert White,et al.  Artificial neural networks: an econometric perspective ∗ , 1994 .

[23]  R. Spady,et al.  AN EFFICIENT SEMIPARAMETRIC ESTIMATOR FOR BINARY RESPONSE MODELS , 1993 .

[24]  Efficient simulation-based minimum distance estimation and indirect inference , 2009, 0908.0433.

[25]  H. White Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models , 1982 .

[26]  Eric French,et al.  Why Do the Elderly Save? The Role of Medical Expenses , 2009, Journal of Political Economy.

[27]  Anthony A. Smith,et al.  Generalized indirect inference for discrete choice models , 2015, Journal of Econometrics.

[28]  Lee M. Lockwood Incidental Bequests and the Choice to Self-Insure Late-Life Risks , 2014, The American economic review.

[29]  Sebastian Nowozin,et al.  f-GAN: Training Generative Neural Samplers using Variational Divergence Minimization , 2016, NIPS.

[30]  D. Pollard Another Look at Differentiability in Quadratic Mean , 1997 .

[31]  Christian Gourieroux,et al.  Simulation-based econometric methods , 1996 .

[32]  W. Newey,et al.  The asymptotic variance of semiparametric estimators , 1994 .

[33]  Vasilis Syrgkanis,et al.  Adversarial Generalized Method of Moments , 2018, ArXiv.

[34]  P. J. Huber The behavior of maximum likelihood estimates under nonstandard conditions , 1967 .

[35]  Bo E. Honoré,et al.  Poor (Wo)Man's Bootstrap , 2015 .

[36]  Dennis Kristensen,et al.  Estimation of Dynamic Models with Nonparametric Simulated Maximum Likelihood , 2005 .

[37]  Victor Chernozhukov,et al.  Likelihood Estimation and Inference in a Class of Nonregular Econometric Models , 2003 .

[38]  Ilias Zadik,et al.  Orthogonal Machine Learning: Power and Limitations , 2017, ICML.

[39]  Halbert White,et al.  Improved Rates and Asymptotic Normality for Nonparametric Neural Network Estimators , 1999, IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory.

[40]  W. Newey,et al.  Large sample estimation and hypothesis testing , 1986 .

[41]  J. Robins,et al.  Double/Debiased Machine Learning for Treatment and Structural Parameters , 2017 .

[42]  Léon Bottou,et al.  Towards Principled Methods for Training Generative Adversarial Networks , 2017, ICLR.

[43]  A. V. D. Vaart,et al.  Misspecification in infinite-dimensional Bayesian statistics , 2006, math/0607023.

[44]  Jean-David Fermanian,et al.  A NONPARAMETRIC SIMULATED MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION METHOD , 2004, Econometric Theory.

[45]  Léon Bottou,et al.  Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Networks , 2017, ICML.

[46]  Andrew Bennett,et al.  Deep Generalized Method of Moments for Instrumental Variable Analysis , 2019, NeurIPS.

[47]  H. N. Mhaskar,et al.  Function approximation by deep networks , 2019, ArXiv.

[48]  Johannes Schmidt-Hieber,et al.  Nonparametric regression using deep neural networks with ReLU activation function , 2017, The Annals of Statistics.

[49]  Xiaotong Shen,et al.  Sieve extremum estimates for weakly dependent data , 1998 .

[50]  James J. Heckman,et al.  Estimating the Technology of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skill Formation , 2010, Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society.

[51]  Toni M. Whited,et al.  Dynamic Models and Structural Estimation in Corporate Finance , 2012 .