Predicting crashes in a model of self-organized criticality

We consider an evolving network of interacting species which exhibits self-organized criticality. The system is characterized by repeated crashes in which a large number of species are extinct and subsequent recoveries. We investigate the macroscopic properties of this system prior to such crashes, concentrating on the variance of the relative population sizes of species and its evolution over time. A simple score function is constructed to determine the probability of a crash within a certain time interval to be used as a predictor for crashes.

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