Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained in a preliminary performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained in a preliminary performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in southeastern New Mexico are presented. The most appropriate conceptual model for performance assessment at the WIPP is believed to include gas generation due to corrosion and microbial action in the repository and a dual-porosity (matrix and fracture porosity) representation for solute transport in the Culebra Dolomite Member of the Rustler Formation. Under these assumptions, complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) summarizing radionuclide releases to the accessible environment due to both cuttings removal and groundwater transport fall substantially below the release limits promulgated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). This is the case even when the current estimates of the uncertainty in analysis inputs are included. Performance assessment results are dominated by cuttings removal. The releases to the accessible environment due to groundwater transport make very small contributions to the total release. The variability in the distribution of CCDFs that must be considered in comparisons with the EPA release limits is dominated by the rate constant in the Poisson model for drilling intrusions. The variability in releases to the accessible environment due to cuttings removal is dominated by drill bit diameter.

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