Transient Inverse Calibration of the Site-Wide Groundwater Flow Model (ACM-2): FY03 Progress Report

DOE and PNNL are working to strengthen the technical defensibility of the groundwater flow and transport model at the Hanford Site and to incorporate uncertainty into the model. One aspect of the initiative is developing and using a three-dimensional transient inverse model to estimate the hydraulic conductivities, specific yields, and other parameters using data from Hanford since 1943. The focus of the alternative conceptual model (ACM-2) inverse modeling initiative documented in this report was to address limitations identified in the ACM-1 model, complete the facies-based approach for representing the hydraulic conductivity distribution in the Hanford and middle Ringold Formations, develop the approach and implementation methodology for generating multiple ACMs based on geostatistical data analysis, and develop an approach for inverse modeling of these stochastic ACMs. The primary modifications to ACM-2 transient inverse model include facies-based zonation of Units 1 (Hanford ) and 5 (middle Ringold); an improved approach for handling run-on recharge from upland areas based on watershed modeling results; an improved approach for representing artificial discharges from site operations; and minor changes to the geologic conceptual model. ACM-2 is the first attempt to fully incorporate the facies-based approach to represent the hydrogeologic structure. Further refinement and additional improvements tomore » overall model fit will be realized during future inverse simulations of groundwater flow and transport. In addition, preliminary work was completed on an approach and implementation for generating an inverse modeling of stochastic ACMs. These techniques were applied to assess the uncertainty in the facies-based zonation of the Hanford formation and the geological structure of Ringold mud units. The geostatistical analysis used a preliminary interpretation of the facies-based zonation that was not consistent with that used in ACM-2. Although the overall objective of this task is to assess uncertainty based on the most current model (ACM-2), this preliminary work provided an effective basis for developing the approach and implementation methodology. A strategy was developed to facilitate inverse calibration analysis of the large number of stochastic ACMs generated. These stochastic ACMs are random selections from a range of possible model structures, all of which are consistent with available observations. However, a single inverse run requires many forward flow model runs, and full inverse analysis of the large number of combinations of stochastic alternative models is not now computationally feasible. Thus, a two-part approach was developed: (1) full inverse modeling of selected realizations combined with limited forward modeling and (2) implementation of the UCODE/CFEST inverse modeling framework to enhance computational capabilities.« less

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