Multimodal evacuation after subway breakdown: A modeling framework and mode choice behavior

Abstract Subway is the backbone of the urban transportation system. However, because of its superior and high-capacity performance, it is difficult to evacuate the stranded passengers through other modes when unexpected disruptions happen. Previous studies paid much attention to the evacuation by gapping buses, but little attentions to the potential of the subway network and the transfers with other transport modes. This paper proposed a multimodal emergency evacuation modeling framework in response to subway breakdowns. The multinomial logit model was employed to analyze the evacuees alternative mode choice behavior. A case study of Longyang road subway station was analyzed by the proposed modeling framework, an SP (Stated Preference) survey of alternative evacuation modes was conducted for the calibration of the multinomial logit model. The results showed that a multimodal emergency evacuation based on the subway network could meet the requirements of evacuees, and make full use of all transport modes and improve evacuation efficiency. The research enriches the existing theory of multimodal emergency evacuation of the subway, and the conclusions can be used as a reference for emergency management and decision-making of subway emergencies.