Material Accounting in a Macroeconomic Framework: Forecast of Waste Generated in Manufacturing Industries in Norway

This paper analyses the generation of waste inproduction processes using a technique based onthe physical law of conservation of mass.According to this law, mass going into aproduction process must equal the mass comingout of the same process. The paper uses thismass balance perspective to refine a previouslydeveloped technique for forecasting wastequantities. A macroeconomic model predicts theuse of intermediate inputs and production inmonetary units, and by multiplying thesevariables with weight conversion factors weestimate physical amounts going into and out ofproduction. The difference between input andoutput, the residual, consists of discharges toland, water and air. We predict a growth in theresiduals from manufacturing industries of 74%from 1993 to 2010. This growth is partly explained by an anticipated growth in material intensity.