Risk Mapping Framework: Interplay between Complexity, Events, Probability and Outcomes as Determinants of Risk Level

This study develops a framework for determinants of level of risk (called risk mapping) for manufacturing firms. The study also applies the framework and analyses it specifically in manufacturing process. Drawing on in-depth analysis of manufacturing process of a product, risk level is determined in a small scale firm in Pakistan. Furthermore study also provides basis for determining the risk during every activity in process. The level of risk is identified with a combination of four dimensions: “probability”, “complexity”, “events” and “outcomes”. By analyzing the risk definitions, dimensions and scope, a parsimonious and a comprehensive definition of risk has been developed which further evolves into framework of risk. As a result, we can analyse risk in any kind of process, event or a system. Finally, study highlights different types of risks faced by workers.

[1]  Judith R. Blau,et al.  Ideas, Complexity, and Innovation. , 1979 .

[2]  Bente R. Løwendahl,et al.  Challenges to existing strategy theory in a postindustrial society , 1998 .

[3]  K. Wall The Kaplan and Garrick Definition of Risk and its Application to Managerial Decision Problems , 2011 .

[4]  Andrea Coulson,et al.  Organized uncertainty: designing a world of risk management , 2008 .

[5]  Fred R. David,et al.  Strategic Management: Concepts and Cases , 2004 .

[6]  Sydney Finkelstein,et al.  Chief executive compensation: A study of the intersection of markets and political processes , 1989 .

[7]  Herbert A. Simon,et al.  The Sciences of the Artificial , 1970 .

[8]  Michael L. Tushman,et al.  Designing Organizations that Have Good Fit: A Framework for Understanding New Architectures , 1992 .

[9]  Kouroush Jenab,et al.  A graph-based model for manufacturing complexity , 2010 .

[10]  Using External Data in Operational Risk , 2007 .

[11]  Clive Smallman,et al.  Risk and organizational behaviour: a research model , 1996 .

[12]  Marc R. Reinganum The Effect of Executive Succession on Stockholder Wealth , 1985 .

[13]  Herbert A. Simon,et al.  The Sciences of the Artificial , 1970 .

[14]  S. Kaplan,et al.  On The Quantitative Definition of Risk , 1981 .

[15]  A. Michalos Risk: A Philosophical Introduction to the Theory of Risk Evaluation and Management , 1984 .

[16]  L. Naveen Organizational Complexity and Succession Planning , 2006 .

[17]  Luis A. Nunes Amaral,et al.  Complex Systems - A New Paradigm for the Integrative Study of Management, Physical, and Technological Systems , 2007, Manag. Sci..

[18]  A. Hussain Managing Operational Risk in Financial Markets , 2000 .

[19]  Yadong Luo Equity sharing in international joint ventures: an empirical analysis of strategic and environmental determinants , 2001 .

[20]  Iman Anabtawi,et al.  Regulating Systemic Risk: Towards an Analytical Framework , 2011 .

[21]  J. Fredrickson The Strategic Decision Process and Organizational Structure , 1986 .

[22]  P. Mcconnell Systemic Operational Risk – Smoke and Mirrors , 2012 .

[23]  Daniel E. Nolle Banking Industry Consolidation: Past Changes and Implications for the Future , 1994 .

[24]  Sanjay Sharma,et al.  The Influence of Stakeholders on the Environmental Strategy of Service Firms: The Moderating Effects of Complexity, Uncertainty and Munificence , 2008 .

[25]  G. Markarian,et al.  Firm Complexity and Board of Director Composition , 2007 .

[26]  Anand Nair,et al.  Complexity and Adaptivity in Supply Networks: Building Supply Network Theory Using a Complex Adaptive Systems Perspective , 2007, Decis. Sci..

[27]  Thomas Oberlechner,et al.  Organizations and Risk in Late Modernity , 2009 .

[28]  Ellen Engel,et al.  Financial Accounting Information, Organizational Complexity and Corporate Governance Systems , 2003 .

[29]  J. Nielsen,et al.  Adding prior knowledge to quantitative operational risk models , 2013 .