Complex networks and agent-based models of HIV epidemic

Graphical abstractComplexity and complex systems are all around us: from molecular and cellular systems in biology up to economics and human societies. There is an urgent need for methods that can capture the multi-scale spatio-temporal characteristics of complex systems. Recent emphasis has centered on two methods in particular, those being complex networks and agent-based models. In this paper we look at the combination of these two methods and identify "Complex Agent Networks", as a new emerging computational paradigm for complex system modeling. We argue that complex agent networks are able to capture both individual-level dynamics as well as global-level properties of a complex system, and as such may help to obtain a better understanding of the fundamentals of such systems.We formally describe a form of modeling (which we term complex agent networks) that unifies agent-based modeling and complex networks with respect to the individual agent node model and the networks of agent interactions. Apart from the intrinsic complexity of an agent itself, the interactions among agents can be depicted with spatial models such as grid, map and networks (Fig. 1) and we can map the interactions among agents eventually to networks (Fig. 2).Then we apply CANs to modeling infectious diseases as shown in Fig. 3. Persons are described as agents with heterogeneous disease progression, while the dynamic interactions among agents, that can cause infections, are described by networks.Then we apply CANs to modeling infectious diseases as shown in Fig. 3. Persons are described as agents with heterogeneous disease progression, while the dynamic interactions among agents, that can cause infections, are described by networks.Finally we conclude with a summary of significant research issues related to CANs. Display Omitted HighlightsFormally describes a form of modeling that unifies agent-based modeling and complex networks.Captures both individual-level and global-level dynamics of a system.Describes a system's interaction patterns in networks and its agency in ABM.Reviews existing work from epidemiology, ecology and economics.Presents a detailed example that uses CANs to study infectious disease spreading. Complexity and complex systems are all around us: from molecular and cellular systems in biology up to economics and human societies. There is an urgent need for methods that can capture the multi-scale spatio-temporal characteristics of complex systems. Recent emphasis has centered on two methods in particular, those being complex networks and agent-based models. In this paper we look at the combination of these two methods and identify "Complex Agent Networks", as a new emerging computational paradigm for complex system modeling. We argue that complex agent networks are able to capture both individual-level dynamics as well as global-level properties of a complex system, and as such may help to obtain a better understanding of the fundamentals of such systems.

[1]  P. Sloot,et al.  Combining Epidemiological and Genetic Networks Signifies the Importance of Early Treatment in HIV-1 Transmission , 2012, PloS one.

[2]  Lin Huang,et al.  Consensus of Multiagent Systems and Synchronization of Complex Networks: A Unified Viewpoint , 2016, IEEE Transactions on Circuits and Systems I: Regular Papers.

[3]  Nelson Francisco Favilla Ebecken,et al.  Exploring complex networks in the plankton , 2016, IEEE Latin America Transactions.

[4]  William S. Yamamoto,et al.  AY's Neuroanatomy of C. elegans for Computation , 1992 .

[5]  Sankaran Mahadevan,et al.  Fuzzy fractal dimension of complex networks , 2014, Appl. Soft Comput..

[6]  Esmaeil Hadavandi,et al.  A bat-neural network multi-agent system (BNNMAS) for stock price prediction: Case study of DAX stock price , 2015, Appl. Soft Comput..

[7]  David Stuart Robertson,et al.  Simple Ecological Rules Yield Complex Agent Networks , 2010, CCIA.

[8]  Yifan Zhu,et al.  Complex agent networks explaining the HIV epidemic among homosexual men in Amsterdam , 2008, Math. Comput. Simul..

[9]  Alessandro Vespignani,et al.  Complex networks: Patterns of complexity , 2010 .

[10]  Uta Berger,et al.  Pattern-Oriented Modeling of Agent-Based Complex Systems: Lessons from Ecology , 2005, Science.

[11]  Peter M. A. Sloot,et al.  International Journal of Computer Mathematics Stochastic Simulation of Hiv Population Dynamics through Complex Network Modelling Stochastic Simulation of Hiv Population Dynamics through Complex Network Modelling , 2022 .

[12]  R. Rothenberg,et al.  Social network dynamics and HIV transmission , 1998, AIDS.

[13]  Michal Kvasnička,et al.  Viral Video Diffusion in a Fixed Social Network: An Agent-based Model☆ , 2014 .

[14]  Peter M. A. Sloot,et al.  Identifying potential survival strategies of HIV-1 through virus-host protein interaction networks , 2010, BMC Systems Biology.

[15]  M. Kuperman,et al.  Social games in a social network. , 2000, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[16]  Attila Szolnoki,et al.  Evolutionary prisoner's dilemma game on Newman-Watts networks. , 2007, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[17]  Yi Yang,et al.  Decentralized mining social network communities with agents , 2013, Math. Comput. Model..

[18]  Itzhak Benenson,et al.  PARKAGENT: An agent-based model of parking in the city , 2008, Comput. Environ. Urban Syst..

[19]  Hang-Hyun Jo,et al.  Complexity analysis of the stock market , 2006, physics/0607283.

[20]  Peter M. A. Sloot,et al.  Understanding Complex Dynamics in derivatives Finance: Why do Options Markets Smile? , 2012, Adv. Complex Syst..

[21]  Albert-László Barabási,et al.  Statistical mechanics of complex networks , 2001, ArXiv.

[22]  Lu Lan,et al.  Consensus of synchronization-preferential scale-free networks , 2010 .

[23]  Gib Bogle,et al.  Agent‐based simulation of T‐cell activation and proliferation within a lymph node , 2010, Immunology and cell biology.

[24]  Jie Xu,et al.  Research on Delay Characteristics of Information in Scale-Free Networks Based on Multi-Agent Simulation , 2013, ITQM.

[25]  P. Sloot,et al.  UvA-DARE ( Digital Academic Repository ) HIV reservoirs and immune surveillance evasion cause the failure of structured treatment interruptions : a computational study , 2012 .

[26]  R. Rothenberg,et al.  Risk network structure in the early epidemic phase of HIV transmission in Colorado Springs , 2002, Sexually transmitted infections.

[27]  Daizhan Cheng,et al.  Leader-following consensus of multi-agent systems under fixed and switching topologies , 2010, Syst. Control. Lett..

[28]  Alexander Gelbukh,et al.  Social Data Mining to Improve Bioinspired Intelligent Systems , 2008 .

[29]  Zhi-Xi Wu,et al.  Spatial prisoner's dilemma game with volunteering in Newman-Watts small-world networks. , 2005, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[30]  Long Wang,et al.  Group consensus in multi-agent systems with switching topologies and communication delays , 2010, Syst. Control. Lett..

[31]  M. E. J. Newman,et al.  Power laws, Pareto distributions and Zipf's law , 2005 .

[32]  Peter M. A. Sloot,et al.  Quantitatively evaluating interventions in the influenza A (H1N1) epidemic on China campus grounded on individual-based simulations , 2010, ICCS.

[33]  F. Xiao,et al.  Consensus problems in discrete-time multiagent systems with fixed topology , 2006 .

[34]  Woo-Sung Jung,et al.  Dynamics of clustered opinions in complex networks , 2007 .

[35]  L. Bettencourt,et al.  A unified theory of urban living , 2010, Nature.

[36]  U. Bhalla,et al.  Complexity in biological signaling systems. , 1999, Science.

[37]  Peter M. A. Sloot,et al.  Information processing reveals how microscopic components affect the macroscopic system-state in complex networks , 2011, arXiv.org.

[38]  Patrick C Phillips,et al.  Network thinking in ecology and evolution. , 2005, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[39]  S. Heckbert Experimental economics and agent-based models , 2009 .

[40]  Reka Albert,et al.  Mean-field theory for scale-free random networks , 1999 .

[41]  V. Latora,et al.  Complex networks: Structure and dynamics , 2006 .

[42]  Albert-László Barabási,et al.  Internet: Diameter of the World-Wide Web , 1999, Nature.

[43]  Xin-Ping Guan,et al.  A new framework of consensus protocol design for complex multi-agent systems , 2011, Syst. Control. Lett..

[44]  H. Ohtsuki,et al.  A simple rule for the evolution of cooperation on graphs and social networks , 2006, Nature.

[45]  S H Strogatz,et al.  Random graph models of social networks , 2002, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[46]  Xiaofeng Liao,et al.  On pinning group consensus for dynamical multi-agent networks with general connected topology , 2014, Neurocomputing.

[47]  Alessandro Vespignani,et al.  Complex networks: The fragility of interdependency , 2010, Nature.

[48]  Neil F. Johnson,et al.  Network Automata: Coupling Structure and Function in Dynamic Networks , 2011, Adv. Complex Syst..

[49]  Bin Wu,et al.  Multi-objective community detection in complex networks , 2012, Appl. Soft Comput..

[50]  O. Sporns,et al.  Organization, development and function of complex brain networks , 2004, Trends in Cognitive Sciences.

[51]  Peter M. A. Sloot,et al.  Simulation of City Evacuation Coupled to Flood Dynamics , 2014 .

[52]  A. Barabasi,et al.  Halting viruses in scale-free networks. , 2001, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[53]  Erin N. Bodine,et al.  Evolutionary Dynamics of Complex Networks of HIV Drug-Resistant Strains: The Case of San Francisco , 2010, Science.

[54]  Steven H. Strogatz,et al.  Small-world networks , 1999 .

[55]  Peter M. A. Sloot,et al.  Complex Systems Modeling by Cellular Automata , 2009, Encyclopedia of Artificial Intelligence.

[56]  Michael T. Gastner,et al.  Shape and efficiency in spatial distribution networks , 2006 .

[57]  Bill Mitchell,et al.  Networks and geography: Modelling community network structures as the outcome of both spatial and network processes , 2012, Soc. Networks.

[58]  Zhi-Dan Zhao,et al.  Epidemic spreading on hierarchical geographical networks with mobile agents , 2013, Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation.

[59]  Kai Nagel,et al.  Towards truly agent-based traffic and mobility simulations , 2004, Proceedings of the Third International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, 2004. AAMAS 2004..

[60]  S. Auyang Foundations of Complex-System Theories: In Economics, Evolutionary Biology, and Statistical Physics , 1998 .

[61]  Mark E. J. Newman,et al.  Power-Law Distributions in Empirical Data , 2007, SIAM Rev..

[62]  Yu Chen,et al.  The Dynamics of Public Opinion in Complex Networks , 2008, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[63]  Joshua M. Epstein,et al.  Modelling to contain pandemics , 2009, Nature.

[64]  A. Barabasi,et al.  Lethality and centrality in protein networks , 2001, Nature.

[65]  Peter M. A. Sloot,et al.  Simulating Complex Systems by Cellular Automata , 2010, Simulating Complex Systems by Cellular Automata.

[66]  Rosario N. Mantegna,et al.  Book Review: An Introduction to Econophysics, Correlations, and Complexity in Finance, N. Rosario, H. Mantegna, and H. E. Stanley, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000. , 2000 .

[67]  Steven F. Railsback,et al.  Individual-based modeling and ecology , 2005 .

[68]  Mark E. J. Newman,et al.  The Structure and Function of Complex Networks , 2003, SIAM Rev..

[69]  Christian Wissel,et al.  Reconstructing spatiotemporal dynamics of Central European natural beech forests: the rule-based forest model BEFORE , 2004 .

[70]  Rick Quax,et al.  Increasing risk behaviour can outweigh the benefits of antiretroviral drug treatment on the HIV incidence among men-having-sex-with-men in Amsterdam , 2010, BMC infectious diseases.

[71]  Mahdi Jalili,et al.  Influence maximization of informed agents in social networks , 2015, Appl. Math. Comput..

[72]  Arturo Hernández Aguirre,et al.  Implementation of a Mobile Device to Determine Danger in a Great City Based on Ubiquity , 2012, 2012 Eighth International Conference on Intelligent Environments.

[73]  Eric Bonabeau,et al.  Agent-based modeling: Methods and techniques for simulating human systems , 2002, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[74]  Xiaofeng Liao,et al.  On reaching group consensus for linearly coupled multi-agent networks , 2014, Inf. Sci..

[75]  D. Rickles Econophysics and the Complexity of Financial Markets , 2011 .

[76]  Bo Xianyu,et al.  Prisoner's Dilemma Game on Complex Networks with Agents' Adaptive Expectations , 2012 .

[77]  H. Remmert,et al.  The Mosaic-Cycle Concept of Ecosystems , 1991, Ecological Studies.

[78]  Peter M. A. Sloot,et al.  Information processing as a paradigm to model and simulate complex systems , 2012, J. Comput. Sci..

[79]  Alessandro Vespignani Modelling dynamical processes in complex socio-technical systems , 2011, Nature Physics.

[80]  Léon J. M. Rothkrantz,et al.  Microscopic traffic simulation with reactive driving agents , 2001, ITSC 2001. 2001 IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems. Proceedings (Cat. No.01TH8585).

[81]  Samia Nefti-Meziani,et al.  iDetect: Content Based Monitoring of Complex Networks using Mobile Agents , 2012, Appl. Soft Comput..

[82]  D. West Introduction to Graph Theory , 1995 .

[83]  O. Sporns,et al.  Complex brain networks: graph theoretical analysis of structural and functional systems , 2009, Nature Reviews Neuroscience.

[84]  Peter M. A. Sloot,et al.  Modeling HIV-1 Intracellular Replication , 2013 .

[85]  Michael Lees,et al.  Modeling Human-Like Decision Making for Virtual Agents in Time-Critical Situations , 2010, 2010 International Conference on Cyberworlds.

[86]  T. Standovár,et al.  A review on natural stand dynamics in Beechwoods of East Central Europe , 2003 .

[87]  A. Louisa,et al.  コロイド混合体における有効力 空乏引力から集積斥力へ | 文献情報 | J-GLOBAL 科学技術総合リンクセンター , 2002 .

[88]  A. Vespignani Predicting the Behavior of Techno-Social Systems , 2009, Science.

[89]  Paul Davidsson,et al.  Agent Based Social Simulation: A Computer Science View , 2002, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[90]  Alfons G. Hoekstra,et al.  Introduction to Modeling of Complex Systems Using Cellular Automata , 2010, Simulating Complex Systems by Cellular Automata.

[91]  Catherine H Mercer,et al.  Scale-Free Networks and Sexually Transmitted Diseases: A Description of Observed Patterns of Sexual Contacts in Britain and Zimbabwe , 2004, Sexually transmitted diseases.

[92]  Peter M. A. Sloot,et al.  Self-organized criticality in simulated correlated systems , 2001 .

[93]  Francesco Orciuoli,et al.  A multi-agent fuzzy consensus model in a Situation Awareness framework , 2015, Appl. Soft Comput..

[94]  A. Díaz-Guilera,et al.  Efficiency of informational transfer in regular and complex networks. , 2004, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.