Belief, knowledge, and uncertainty: A cognitive perspective on subjective probability

Abstract This paper presents a cognitive analysis of subjective probability judgments and proposes that these are assessments of belief-processing activities. The analysis is motivated by an investigation of the concepts of belief, knowledge, and uncertainty. Judgment and reasoning are differentiated, Toulmin's (1958) theory of argument being used to explicate the latter. The paper discusses a belief-processing model in which reasoning is used to translate data into conclusions, while judgmental processes qualify those conclusions with degrees of belief. The model sheds light on traditional interpretations of probability and suggests that different characteristics of belief—likelihood and support—are addressed by different representational systems. In concluding, the paper identifies new lines of research implied by its analysis.

[1]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Reasons for confidence. , 1980 .

[2]  Yaacov Trope,et al.  Problem solving in judgment under uncertainty. , 1987 .

[3]  Carl-Axel S. Staël von Holstein,et al.  Exceptional Paper---Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis , 1975 .

[4]  N. Pennington,et al.  Evidence evaluation in complex decision making. , 1986 .

[5]  R. Abrams,et al.  Psychological sources of ambiguity avoidance , 1986 .

[6]  A. Tversky.  Features of Similarity , 1977 .

[7]  W. C. Howell,et al.  Uncertainty measurement: A cognitive taxonomy , 1978 .

[8]  Glenn Shafer,et al.  Probability Judgment in Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems , 1987 .

[9]  Ian I. Mitroff,et al.  Policy as Argument-A Logic for Ill-Structured Decision Problems , 1982 .

[10]  Daniel Kahneman,et al.  Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability , 1973 .

[11]  Thomas W. Milburn,et al.  Decision-Making Perspectives from Psychology , 1976 .

[12]  P. C. Wason,et al.  The Processing of Positive and Negative Information , 1959 .

[13]  Robert S. Wyer,et al.  The Role of Information Retrieval and Conditional Inference Processes in Belief Formation and Change , 1980 .

[14]  J. Vickers.  On the Reality of Chance , 1978, PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association.

[15]  T. R. Stewart,et al.  10 – SOCIAL JUDGMENT THEORY , 1975 .

[16]  William J. Clancey,et al.  Heuristic Classification , 1986, Artif. Intell..

[17]  B. D. Finetti,et al.  Foresight: Its Logical Laws, Its Subjective Sources , 1992 .

[18]  R. Abelson.  Script processing in attitude formation and decision making. , 1976 .

[19]  Gerard de Zeeuw,et al.  Are Subjective Probabilities Probabilities , 1974 .

[20]  Charles R. Schwenk,et al.  Conjectures on Cognitive Simplification in Acquisition and Divestment Decision Making , 1985 .

[21]  Dina Berkeley,et al.  Handling Uncertainty Levels of Analysis of Decision Problems , 1985 .

[22]  I J Good,et al.  Kinds of Probability: Although there are at least five kinds of probability, we can get along with just one kind. , 1959, Science.

[23]  A. Tversky,et al.  The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. , 1981, Science.

[24]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[25]  R. Reiter,et al.  Nonmonotonic reasoning , 1988 .

[26]  A. Tversky,et al.  Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness , 1972 .

[27]  T. K. Srull,et al.  Handbook of Social Cognition , 1993 .

[28]  Z. Shapira.  Measuring subjective probabilities by the magnitude production method , 1975 .

[29]  Douglas W. Ehninger,et al.  Toulmin on argument: An interpretation and application , 1960 .

[30]  Dilek Yeldan.  The effects of feedback on the performance of probability forecasters , 1988 .

[31]  L. J. Savage,et al.  Personal probabilities of probabilities , 1975 .

[32]  Arie W. Kruglanski,et al.  Bias and error in human judgment , 1983 .

[33]  David V. Budescu,et al.  Encoding subjective probabilities: A psychological and psychometric review , 1983 .

[34]  Lee Roy Beach,et al.  Beyond heuristics and biases: A contingency model of judgemental forecasting , 1986 .

[35]  D. Ellsberg.  Decision, probability, and utility: Risk, ambiguity, and the Savage axioms , 1961 .

[36]  John W. Payne,et al.  Contingent decision behavior. , 1982 .

[37]  B. Kuipers,et al.  Critical Decisions under Uncertainty: Representation and Structure , 1990, Cogn. Sci..

[38]  Ruth Beyth-Marom,et al.  How probable is probable? A numerical translation of verbal probability expressions , 1982 .

[39]  Paul R. Halmos,et al.  The Foundations of Probability , 1944 .

[40]  P. Fishburn.  The Axioms of Subjective Probability , 1986 .

[41]  A. Tversky,et al.  On the psychology of prediction , 1973 .

[42]  G. Tintner.  Foundations of Probability and Statistical Inference , 1949 .

[43]  G. Brier,et al.  External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score , 1982 .

[44]  Robin M. Hogarth,et al.  Cognitive Processes and the Assessment of Subjective Probability Distributions , 1975 .

[45]  Ryszard S. Michalski,et al.  The Logic of Plausible Reasoning: A Core Theory , 1989, Cogn. Sci..

[46]  Gordon F. Pitz,et al.  A STRUCTURAL THEORY OF UNCERTAIN KNOWLEDGE , 1975 .

[47]  A. Tversky,et al.  Causal Schemata in Judgments under Uncertainty , 1982 .

[48]  D. Isenberg.  Thinking and Managing: A Verbal Protocol Analysis of Managerial Problem Solving , 1986 .

[49]  R. Hogarth,et al.  BEHAVIORAL DECISION THEORY: PROCESSES OF JUDGMENT AND CHOICE , 1981 .

[50]  I. Erev,et al.  Verbal versus numerical probabilities: Efficiency, biases, and the preference paradox☆ , 1990 .

[51]  A. Tversky,et al.  Variants of uncertainty , 1982, Cognition.

[52]  I. Ajzen.  Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base-rate information on prediction. , 1977 .

[53]  Ronald A. Howard,et al.  Decision analysis: practice and promise , 1988 .

[54]  Lawrence D. Phillips,et al.  The ‘true probability’ problem , 1970 .

[55]  Frances J. Milliken.  Three Types of Perceived Uncertainty About the Environment: State, Effect, and Response Uncertainty , 1987 .

[56]  H. Kunreuther,et al.  Decision Making: SOURCES OF BIAS IN ASSESSMENT PROCEDURES FOR UTILITY FUNCTIONS , 1982 .

[57]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980 , 1982 .

[58]  Glenn Shafer,et al.  Languages and Designs for Probability Judgment , 1985, Cogn. Sci..