Hydroclimate Variations across North-Central China during the Past 530 Years and Their Relationships with Atmospheric Oscillations

Detailed study of historical drought events in North-Central China (NCC) is important to understand current hydroclimate variability in the background of global warming. Here, we combined 12 published tree-ring chronologies and 12 dryness/wetness indices (DWI) to reconstruct dry and wet climate variability across NCC. These 24 proxy records showed similarly significant responses to warm season (May–June–July–August–September, MJJAS) moisture signals. A new 530-year-long reconstruction of self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) values for the warm season in NCC was determined using a nested principal component regression (PCR) approach. The new reconstruction shows significant correlations with the instrumental MJJAS scPDSI data across NCC during the period AD 1901–2012. The reconstructed MJJAS scPDSI revealed seven severe dry/wet events from AD 1470 to 2012. The periods AD 1701–1727 and AD 1985–2011 represent the longest dry periods, and the drought during the 1920s is identified as the most severe one over the past 530 years. Our reconstruction shows significant interannual spectral peaks at the frequency domain of 2–7 years, together with relatively weaker decadal frequencies of 16, 24, and 78 years. The results of superposed epoch analysis (SEA) show that extreme North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) years may modulate drought variability in NCC.

[1]  X. Gou,et al.  A half-millennium perspective on recent drying in the eastern Chinese Loess Plateau , 2022, CATENA.

[2]  N. Stenseth,et al.  Long-term decrease in Asian monsoon rainfall and abrupt climate change events over the past 6,700 years , 2021, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[3]  Quan-yan Tian,et al.  Drought variation recorded by growth rings of the shrub Sabina vulgaris in the middle Qilian Mountains, northwest China , 2021 .

[4]  Jianglin Wang,et al.  Moisture and Temperature Covariability over the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau during the Past Nine Centuries , 2020, Journal of Climate.

[5]  Zhao Jin,et al.  Recent anthropogenic curtailing of Yellow River runoff and sediment load is unprecedented over the past 500 y , 2020, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[6]  P. Jones,et al.  Version 4 of the CRU TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset , 2020, Scientific Data.

[7]  Ruochen Mei,et al.  Asian Summer Monsoon‐Related Relative Humidity Recorded by Tree Ring δ18O During Last 205 Years , 2019, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.

[8]  Jianglin Wang,et al.  A 1556 year-long early summer moisture reconstruction for the Hexi Corridor, Northwestern China , 2019, Science China Earth Sciences.

[9]  E. Cook,et al.  Deciphering Human Contributions to Yellow River Flow Reductions and Downstream Drying Using Centuries‐Long Tree Ring Records , 2019, Geophysical Research Letters.

[10]  Z. Zheng,et al.  Drying Trend in Northern China and Its Shift during 1951-2016 , 2018 .

[11]  T. Nakatsuka,et al.  East Asian Summer Monsoon moisture sustains summer relative humidity in the southwestern Gobi Desert, China: evidence from δ18O of tree rings , 2018, Climate Dynamics.

[12]  M. Stoffel,et al.  500-yr. precipitation variability in Southern Taihang Mountains, China, and its linkages to ENSO and PDO , 2017, Climatic Change.

[13]  E. Zorita,et al.  Internal and external forcing of multidecadal Atlantic climate variability over the past 1,200 years , 2017 .

[14]  Deliang Chen,et al.  Drought variation of western Chinese Loess Plateau since 1568 and its linkages with droughts in western North America , 2017, Climate Dynamics.

[15]  D. Zhang,et al.  Quantifying climatic variability in monsoonal northern China over the last 2200 years and its role in driving Chinese dynastic changes , 2017 .

[16]  J. Niu,et al.  Tree-ring-based reconstruction of drought variability (1792–2011) in the middle reaches of the Fen River, North China , 2016 .

[17]  Jianping Huang,et al.  Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change , 2016 .

[18]  D. McCarroll,et al.  The 225-year precipitation variability inferred from tree-ring records in Shanxi Province, the North China, and its teleconnection with Indian summer monsoon , 2015 .

[19]  Jianqi Sun,et al.  Changes in Drought Characteristics over China Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index , 2015 .

[20]  V. Masson‐Delmotte,et al.  A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium , 2015, Nature.

[21]  H. Birks,et al.  East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability since the last deglaciation , 2015, Scientific Reports.

[22]  Wen Wang,et al.  Drought severity change in China during 1961–2012 indicated by SPI and SPEI , 2015, Natural Hazards.

[23]  A. Bräuning,et al.  Tree-ring based evidence of the multi-decadal climatic oscillation during the past 200 years in north-central China , 2014 .

[24]  Q. Ge,et al.  How climate change impacted the collapse of the Ming dynasty , 2014, Climatic Change.

[25]  S. Seneviratne,et al.  Global assessment of trends in wetting and drying over land , 2014 .

[26]  F. Ljungqvist,et al.  Drought variability at the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region over the past millennia , 2014, Climate Dynamics.

[27]  Wei Huang,et al.  Interannual precipitation variations in the mid-latitude Asia and their association with large-scale atmospheric circulation , 2013 .

[28]  Q. Fu,et al.  Expansion of global drylands under a warming climate , 2013 .

[29]  Keith R. Briffa,et al.  A scPDSI‐based global data set of dry and wet spells for 1901–2009 , 2013 .

[30]  M. Mann,et al.  A Gridded Reconstruction of Warm Season Precipitation for Asia Spanning the Past Half Millennium , 2013 .

[31]  E. Cook,et al.  Links between Indo-Pacific climate variability and drought in the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[32]  Jianglin Wang,et al.  Extreme drought events in the years 1877–1878, and 1928, in the southeast Qilian Mountains and the air–sea coupling system , 2013 .

[33]  Meixue Yang,et al.  Aridity changes in the eastern Qilian Mountains since AD 1856 reconstructed from tree-rings , 2013 .

[34]  E. Wood,et al.  Little change in global drought over the past 60 years , 2012, Nature.

[35]  Bao Yang,et al.  Recent tree-growth reduction in north central China as a combined result of a weakened monsoon and atmospheric oscillations , 2012, Climatic Change.

[36]  Richard R. Heim,et al.  Are droughts becoming more frequent or severe in China based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index: 1951–2010? , 2011 .

[37]  Fahu Chen,et al.  Humid medieval warm period recorded by magnetic characteristics of sediments from Gonghai Lake, Shanxi, North China , 2011 .

[38]  R. Edwards,et al.  Centennial- to decadal-scale monsoon precipitation variability in the semi-humid region, northern China during the last 1860 years: Records from stalagmites in Huangye Cave , 2011 .

[39]  De’er Zhang,et al.  A Long Lasting and Extensive Drought Event over China in 1876–1878 , 2010 .

[40]  Guofeng Wu,et al.  1876–1878 severe drought in North China: Facts, impacts and climatic background , 2010 .

[41]  Fahu Chen,et al.  High-resolution climate change in mid-late Holocene on Tianchi Lake, Liupan Mountain in the Loess Plateau in central China and its significance , 2010 .

[42]  X. Gou,et al.  Tree‐ring based drought reconstruction for the Guiqing Mountain (China): linkages to the Indian and Pacific Oceans , 2010 .

[43]  Edward R. Cook,et al.  Asian Monsoon Failure and Megadrought During the Last Millennium , 2010, Science.

[44]  R. Edwards,et al.  The variation of summer monsoon precipitation in central China since the last deglaciation , 2010 .

[45]  J. Chan,et al.  Interdecadal unstationary relationship between NAO and east China's summer precipitation patterns , 2009 .

[46]  Meixue Yang,et al.  Drought variations in the eastern part of northwest China over the past two centuries: evidence from tree rings , 2009 .

[47]  R. Lawrence Edwards,et al.  A Test of Climate, Sun, and Culture Relationships from an 1810-Year Chinese Cave Record , 2008, Science.

[48]  H. Birks,et al.  Holocene moisture evolution in arid central Asia and its out-of-phase relationship with Asian monsoon history , 2008 .

[49]  Edward R. Cook,et al.  Drought reconstruction for North Central China from tree rings: the value of the Palmer drought severity index , 2007 .

[50]  Quansheng Ge,et al.  Precipitation variability and extreme events in eastern China during the past 1500 years , 2006 .

[51]  Jinzhu Ma,et al.  Groundwater and lake evolution in the Badain Jaran Desert ecosystem, Inner Mongolia , 2006 .

[52]  E. Hasi,et al.  Reconstruction of precipitation in the last 140 years from tree ring at south margin of the Tengger Desert, China , 2005 .

[53]  Qiang Zhang,et al.  Variations in droughts over China: 1951–2003 , 2005 .

[54]  E. Cook,et al.  Long-Term Aridity Changes in the Western United States , 2004, Science.

[55]  S. Goddard,et al.  A Self-Calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index , 2004 .

[56]  H. Wanner,et al.  European Seasonal and Annual Temperature Variability, Trends, and Extremes Since 1500 , 2004, Science.

[57]  Songtao Liu,et al.  Study of rheological property of nylon‐1212 with Haake Rheometer , 2003 .

[58]  N. Mantua,et al.  The Pacific Decadal Oscillation , 2002 .

[59]  T. Schneider.  Analysis of Incomplete Climate Data: Estimation of Mean Values and Covariance Matrices and Imputation of Missing Values. , 2001 .

[60]  H. Wanner,et al.  Reconstruction of monthly NAO and EU indices back to AD 1675 , 1999 .

[61]  Edward R. Cook,et al.  A reconstruction of the North Atlantic Oscillation using tree-ring chronologies from North America and Europe , 1998 .

[62]  P. Jones,et al.  Extension to the North Atlantic oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and south‐west Iceland , 1997 .

[63]  J. Hurrell,et al.  DECADAL VARIATIONS IN CLIMATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION , 1997 .

[64]  G. Brier,et al.  A Critique of the Superposed Epoch Analysis Method: Its Application to Solar–Weather Relations , 1981 .

[65]  Fu Congbin,et al.  Status and Ponder of Climate and Hydrology Changes in the Yellow River Basin , 2020 .

[66]  杨保,et al.  Precipitation variability at the northern fringeof the Asian summer monsoon in Northern Chinaand its possible mechanism over the past 530 years , 2015 .

[67]  P. Jones,et al.  Global warming and changes in drought , 2014 .

[68]  A. Dai.  Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models , 2013 .

[69]  X. Gou,et al.  Tree-ring based reconstruction of drought variability (1615–2009) in the Kongtong Mountain area, northern China , 2012 .

[70]  Zhang Tong-wen.  Reconstruction of Annual Precipitation in Shandan Based Tree-Ring since 1783 A.D. , 2010 .

[71]  M. Key.  A discussion on the westerly-dominated climate model in mid-latitude Asia during the modern interglacial period , 2009 .

[72]  S. Regional,et al.  Relationship Between Dry/Wet Variation and the Pacific Decade Oscillation(PDO) in Northern China During the Last 100 Years , 2006 .

[73]  Jonathan M. Lees,et al.  Robust estimation of background noise and signal detection in climatic time series , 1996 .